Trump is walking a tightrope on Iran but so far holding steady
Reports of the death of the Make America Great Again coalition are greatly exaggerated, writes James Morrow.
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Reports of the death of the MAGA coalition are greatly exaggerated.
Over the past several days, as US president Donald Trump publicly hemmed and hawed over whether or not to help Israel take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, a narrative took hold that this issue is on the verge of cracking the Republican Party.
On the face of it, it’s an easy claim to make.
Trump’s Make America Great Again base voted him back into office on the promise of no more “endless wars” – shorthand for post-9/11 invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (which didn’t have anything to do with 9/11) that cost so much blood, treasure, and prestige.
Under this theory, if Trump steps in and commits US B-2 bombers to taking out Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities, he will be seen having abandoned his supporters while letting the more bloodthirsty “neo-conservative” wing of the Republican Party win the day.
This idea has gotten a good run with Trump’s foes in the media who have taken it up as the latest bedtime story they tell each other to convince themselves the man in the red ball cap’s days are numbered.
And it got a big boost after a bizarre, nearly two hour podcast between Republican senator Ted Cruz and broadcaster Tucker Carlson that saw Carlson try to prove Cruz’s cautious support for intervention was bogus because he couldn’t name the population of Iran.
Yet a deeper look tells a different story.
A J.L. Partners survey reported by the New York Post found that 65 per cent of self-identified MAGA voters would be supportive of strikes on Iran, versus 19 per cent who said they would be opposed.
Meanwhile Trump’s own actions, including giving what’s left of Iran’s leadership class a two week window to come back to the negotiating table, suggest he has no appetite for adventurism even if he is understood to be leaning towards leaning in on the fight.
White House insiders have briefed Washington journalists saying that the last thing the White House wants to do is replay the disastrous 2011 bombing campaign in Libya.
That effort, led by then-president Barack Obama and his secretary of state Hillary Clinton toppled dictator Muammar Gaddafi who had been a thorn in the side of the US for decades.
But it left disaster in its wake and led to civil war and a deadly attack on the American consulate in Benghazi that led to the brutal deaths of four Americans including the Ambassador.
There is also a quiet concern that even the Pentagon’s massive bunker busters could not penetrate deeply enough into mountain ranges where Iran’s nuclear program is obscured to completely destroy their efforts.
To put it another way, Trump gets it, and knows that anything that leads to more chaos or – worst case scenario – American boots on the ground would genuinely torch a large swathe of his base.
Yet this must be weighed up against the Iranian theocracy’s longstanding war on the west which has included involvements in alleged plots to kill Trump himself.
In the end, being America First doesn’t mean letting your enemies slide because it’s all too hard.
Trump knows this, his supporters sense it, and if Iran’s mullahs don’t fall of their own accord, he will have to spend the next fortnight making this case.
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Originally published as Trump is walking a tightrope on Iran but so far holding steady
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