Trump threatens use bunker busting bombs on Fordow. If he does, this is what could happen

The world is on edge. The Iran and Israel conflict threatens to turn into an all-out war. Any strike raises serious questions about what happens next.

The world is on edge. The Iran and Israel conflict threatens to turn into an all-out war.

United States president Donald Trump has said from the White House that Iran has two weeks until he makes a call on his next move.

He has threatened to launch never-before-used bunker busting bombs on its nuclear plant hidden inside a mountain at Fordow, 130 km south of the capital Tehran.

Any strike raises serious questions about what happens next.

WILL TRUMP BOMB IRAN?

No-one knows, and that’s the point.

Mr Trump’s vague two-week timeline gives him plenty of wriggle room to back away from his threats to directly enter war with Iran.

He’s previously used the same two-week deadline when asked about the Ukraine war and whether he could trust Vladimir Putin.

The time limit could be a negotiating tactic to pressure Iran to negotiate.

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House. Picture: AP

Or it could be two weeks to give Israel a chance to attack the nuclear reactor on its own, without United States support.

The timeframe may also give US military strategists time to plan an attack.

However, it could simply mean nothing.

Mr Trump has previously threatened to impose harsh tariffs on trading partners then backed down, prompting the term TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out.

The stakes in this matter are higher.

WILL US INVOLVEMENT IN IRAN HURT MR TRUMP’S POLITICAL FORTUNES?

Mr Trump campaigned on a pledge to end the forever wars.

America has already waged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past two decades.

A war with Iran, however, may be a different, longer conflict.

The region historically known as Persia is a sophisticated, well educated and relatively affluent country. At 90 million, it’s twice as big as neighbouring Iraq.

Mr Trump has always been hard line on Iran, more so than on Russia.

He ripped up Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 when he was president for the first time.

But some of his base are angry at the potential backflip, MAGA firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, former TV host Tucker Carlson and Trump whisperer Steve Bannon are against America getting involved in another conflict in the Middle East.

CAN ISRAEL DESTROY IRAN’S NUKE PLANTS WITHOUT THE US?

The Israeli Defense Forces now have two weeks to find out.

But military strategists believe that only bunker busting 13.5 ton bombs, known as MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) can hit Iran’s fortified nuclear facilities which are up to 60m underground.

The Fordow nuclear site was first revealed by United States intelligence services in 2009.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba, after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran on. Picture: AFP

The US slammed the nuclear move, which Iran claimed was for peaceful nuclear energy purposes.

The US defence built the MOP as a direct response. It has never been used and can only be dropped from a US B-2 bomber, a sophisticated stealth aircraft that costs $2.1 billion.

As many as six MOPs may be needed to successfully attack the nuclear site, dropped one after the other only seconds apart.

WHY IS IRAN HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON PROBLEM?

Iran has always threatened Israel’s right to exist, it does not recognise it as a legitimate state.
Israel fears that Iran would use a nuclear weapon if it was able to manufacture one.
A nuclear capable Iran would tip the strategic balance in the region, displacing Israel’s military superiority.
There are nine countries in the world who have nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, China, France, UK, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

HOW DOES THE US KNOW IRAN IS MAKING A BOMB?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said this week that it hoped diplomacy would prevail to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was within “months” of developing a nuclear weapon.
The IAEA does not have any concrete information to suggest Iran has a bomb, or was close to making one.
However, Iran has refused to let IAEA inspectors in to find out.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Picture: AFP

HOW COULD IRAN STRIKE BACK?

A ground war between the United States and Iran is unlikely.
But there are a number of options for Iran to strike back.
They could mine the Strait of Hormuz, significantly disrupting world oil shipments.
Iran could also strike US military bases in the Middle East, or activate sleeper cells to carry out terror attacks in western countries.

WILL THIS CONFLICT LEAD TO A REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN?

The Islamic Revolution in 1979 caught the west by surprise.
The rise of the religious power cabal was quick.
There’s unlikely to be a groundswell of students to topple Ayatollah Khomeini’s hard line government.
However, Israel has mainly been attacking the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a tough, independent force in the country.
That leaves the potential for the military to take over the government if the army remains intact.
There’s no guarantee that a change in government would make the region more stable, or reduce the threats to Israel.