Wally’s Weather founder Andrew Brown says reef could play role in Tropical Cyclone Kirrily’s path

Forecast maps show TC Kirrily could be headed for the North Queensland capital, but a Townsville weather expert says the reef could play a pivotal part in where it will make landfall. SEE THE PREDICTIONS >>>

Wally's Weather shares thoughts on looming cyclone.

A respected data analyst who has developed a cult following among weather watchers has warned North Queenslanders to be prepared for the possibility of a category 3 tropical cyclone.

Townsville-based Andrew Brown, the founder of Wally’s Weather, said the tropical low in the Coral Sea was expected to form Tropical Cyclone Kirrily on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday.

“Then it should, relatively quickly, compared to Jasper, start making its way toward the coast,” he said.

Mr Brown said that although the Bureau of Meteorology currently had the weather system tracking for a landfall just south of Townsville with an eye encompassing the North Queensland capital and Ayr, he believed the centre could push a little further south.

“If we look at systems like Cyclone Dylan (2014) and Cyclone Debbie (2017), they sort of had this straight line toward Townsville until they got to the reef and headed a bit more further south,” he said.

“So I would say we are looking at an area probably from as far up as Cardwell down to Mackay but more likely closer to Bowen, Ayr to Bowen, something like that.”

Mr Brown, whose Wally Weather page on Facebook as 81,000 followers and receives 500,000 views per month, said the intensity of any likely cyclone when it struck the coast was similarly hard to project.

“It could be a (category) two or three but be prepared,” he said.

“The majority of constructions in Townsville are built to a category-three rating.”

Mr Brown said Townsville residents should brace for a stronger system than what was experienced during the Cyclone Yasi crossing “if it crosses directly over Townsville”.

“If you’ve experienced Yasi, be prepared for something a little bit more damaging than that and if we get less than that, be grateful,” he said.

Mr Brown said it was also premature to compare the developing cyclone to Severe Tropical Cyclone Althea, arguably the strongest system to hit Townsville city.

Althea, a category-three storm, caused three deaths and as estimated $50m in damage in 1971.

“Althea had a completely different path and the cyclone I would say is closest to it is Dylan because Dylan sort of started in the same location, even Debbie started a lot further northeast,” he said.

“I guess people will feel complacent because they think it is rare for something to come toward Townsville so I keep saying, ‘expect it to come here and be thankful if it doesn’t’.”

Originally published as Wally’s Weather founder Andrew Brown says reef could play role in Tropical Cyclone Kirrily’s path