Tom Minear: Kevin Rudd out of line but in the right on China

It didn’t take long for Kevin Rudd to step out of line as the US ambassador. But his alarming China warning should be a wake-up call for the PM, argues Tom Minear.

Since Kevin Rudd became our man in the US, Australian government figures from Canberra to Washington have been holding their breath for the new ambassador to step out of line.

It was always going to be a matter of when, not if. Rudd is a lot of things, but a “humble public servant” – as he now calls himself with a wry smile – he is not.

So it was no surprise that the moment seemed to arrive rather quickly, in one of his first public appearances at a conference last week in Los Angeles.

On a panel discussing strategic competition between the US and China, Rudd shared his analysis of why China was “not interested in a war right now” over Taiwan, and how America and its allies had five years to develop an effective deterrent.

Kevin Rudd meets Joe Biden he starts his new role as Australia's US ambassador. Picture: Supplied

Anthony Albanese and Penny Wong have studiously avoided similar predictions. Instead, the Foreign Minister has blasted speculation over Taiwan as “the most dangerous of parlour games”.

“Anyone in positions like mine who feels an urge to add to that discussion should resist the temptation,” Wong warned last month.

The question of whether that edict applies to Rudd is a curious one.

On one hand, Wong and Albanese do not need the headache of the ex-PM freelancing on the most complex geostrategic challenges they face. (Perhaps that is why Australia’s DC embassy has not been making the media aware of Rudd’s public appearances so far, in the hope that whatever he tells Americans will not make headlines back home.)

Kevin Rudd gives a copy of his book to California Governor Gavin Newsom. Picture: Twitter

On the other hand, the government picked Rudd because he is one of the world’s top China experts, with a book titled The Avoidable War. It would make little sense for him to self-censor now.

So perhaps the line has been moved for Rudd, at least to free him to share that expertise. While this would be a leap of faith for his Labor colleagues, it is also the right thing to do.

Politicians here in the US are far more uninhibited when publicly dissecting questions like the fate of Taiwan, as Rudd’s fellow panellists were last week. He would be discredited if he dodged the issue, and he can bring nuance to a debate that can be overly provocative.

Indeed, listening to Rudd was a reminder of how the government back home has failed to take Australians into their confidence on Taiwan. No one wants war, but by refusing to even discuss the possibility, the government risks leaving us in the dark until it is too late.