Call for urgency on Taiwan strategy as Richard Marles, Penny Wong prepare for AUSMIN talks

A former top military leader has warned Australia-US talks next week may be the last chance to deter China from “a catastrophic step” on Taiwan.

Next week’s top-level talks with the United States may be the last chance to prepare for conflict over Taiwan, according to a retired Australian major general.

Mick Ryan, a 35-year Army veteran, says an integrated missile defence network, expanded joint military exercises and a rapid review of the war in Ukraine must be delivered by the annual meeting of Australian and American defence and foreign affairs leaders.

“Participants might think of AUSMIN 2022 as the last opportunity to prepare for a coming conflict,” Mr Ryan wrote in a report previewing the talks by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“This change of mindset and sense of urgency is vital if China is to be deterred from taking a catastrophic step and plunging the region into a destructive and drawn-out war.”

Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong are due to meet their US counterparts Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken in Washington DC next Wednesday (AEDT).

Retired major general Mick Ryan. Picture: Supplied

Mr Blinken, the Secretary of State, recently cautioned that the Communist Party under Chinese President Xi Jinping was on a “much faster timeline” to seize control of Taiwan, while President Joe Biden has repeatedly described this as the “decisive decade”.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director Justin Bassi, in a separate preview of AUSMIN, said Australia had “its work cut out to ensure that the US maintains a clear-eyed focus on the Indo-Pacific” in a “complex and overlapping” global threat environment.

“There’s no further scope for delay,” Mr Bassi said.

“With the strategic environment shifting faster than observers predicted, AUSMIN should yield a joint commitment to making 2023 a decisive year for strengthening the alliance’s collective defence and security.”

Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Picture: David Dee Delgado/AFP

While in Washington, Mr Marles will also take part in the first meeting of AUKUS defence ministers – including his British counterpart Ben Wallace – as the three countries seek to finalise a plan for Australia’s acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

Defence analysts Marcus Hellyer and Malcolm Davis, writing in ASPI’s report, said the “most urgent outcome” needed next week was a plan to overcome the “dead hand” of US arms trafficking regulations that would otherwise block technology-sharing with Australia.

Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin hosts Defence Minister Richard Marles at the Pentagon. Picture: US Department of Defence

They also suggested AUSMIN release an AUKUS charter to clarify its purpose, as well as a list of trial projects in areas beyond nuclear submarines, and recommended Australia consider a B-21 stealth bomber force to cover any submarine capability gap.

The CSIS’s Australia chair Charles Edel, who edited the institute’s report, said while “immense strides” had been taken in the Australia-US relationship, now was not the time to maintain the status quo.

Originally published as Call for urgency on Taiwan strategy as Richard Marles, Penny Wong prepare for AUSMIN talks