Shannon Deery: Victorian Coalition promise to axe stamp duty aimed at lifting dire youth vote

Brad Battin’s pledge to axe stamp duty for an estimated 17,000 first-home buyers annually aims to attract a desperately-needed younger vote for the Coalition.

The Victorian Coalition’s promise to scrap stamp duty for first home buyers spending up to $1m is bold policy.

But the devil will be in the detail.

Now 18 months out from the November 2026 election, taxes and economic management have emerged as key policy battlegrounds dividing the major parties.

The Coalition has already vowed to scrap the GP tax, schools’ payroll tax, Airbnb tax and new fire services levy.

It has now committed an estimated $1bn to axe stamp duty for an estimated 17,000 first home buyers a year.

The Coalition’s stamp duty pledge is aimed at winning younger voters. Picture: Tom Parrish

It’s expected to be a key economic stimulus for developers and incentive for Victorians to get into the housing market.

It’s also pitched at attracting a desperately-needed younger vote for the Coalition.

But how will it be funded?

Stamp duty is one of the state government’s largest sources of revenue, accounting for billions of dollars each year.

What will plug the budget shortfalls that result from scrapping these taxes?

And how will the Coalition reverse the state’s debt trajectory they have been, rightfully, so viscerally critical of?

Tax cuts will incentivise and boost the economy to an extent, but more will need to be done to offset the costs of these promises.

Perhaps it will be through service cuts or increased taxes elsewhere, or maybe the state’s projected $194bn debt will no longer be such a concern.

Clear answers have so far not been forthcoming.

Stamp duty is a major earner for any Victorian government in power.

The Coalition’s strength has traditionally been its economic management credentials.

If it plans to run a campaign on restoring Victoria’s economy it will need to capitalise on that with a firm plan.

But the promise of doing more, while taxing less and reversing the debt trajectory is going to be a difficult one to sell.

An aspiring government cannot afford to make such hefty promises on vibes alone.

The stamp duty commitment, revealed in the Herald Sun on Tuesday, is aimed at both boosting the economy and attracting the crucial youth vote that has evaded the modern Liberal Party for so long.

The Coalition took the exact same stamp duty policy to the 2022 election and there’s no evidence it swayed the crucial youth vote in any way.

It is that vote that will be so crucial to getting the Coalition over the line next year, but latest polling shows the 18 to 34 year cohort still strongly favours Labor.

It also took stamp duty reform to the 2018 election, promising increased concessions for pensioners downsizing their homes.

It faced successive electoral drubbings.

With the latest policy the centrepiece of a promised broader economic reform package, perhaps it will be third time lucky.