Shannon Deery: Victorians don’t care about debt. To win back power, the opposition needs to get creative

Victorians have shown they don’t care about Labor governments racking up record levels of debt. The opposition will need to get creative if it wants to win back power.

In the lead up to the 2022 election a debt scare campaign run against Labor failed to take hold.

At that time we were facing forecasts that debt would rise to $162.7bn by 2024-25, a decade after Labor inherited a $22.3bn debt bill when it came to office in 2014.

Economists were warning that the scale of the intergenerational debt would constrain Victoria going forward.

That the toxic mix of high debt levels and high interest rates would likely make voters question who can get the state’s finances back under control.

Then Opposition leader Matthew Guy promised to legislate a debt limit into the state’s budget processes if elected.

Not only did Daniel Andrews win, he increased his majority.

And since then?

Another $32bn has been added onto official debt forecasts meaning, come 2029, we’ll be paying $29m a day to service the looming $194b debt.

(You could build six Suburban Rail Loop first stages with that, incidentally).

The fact the Allan government is so shameless about its debt suggests we just don’t care.

There was little to no effort in last week’s budget to actually drive the debt burden lower.

There was little to no effort to rein in debt by the Premier and Treasurer last week. Victorians don’t seem to care Picture: NewsWire/ David Crosling

Indeed over the forward estimates the value of the debt will remain a stubborn 25 per cent of the total state economy.

And this was not a tail-between-the-legs style budget delivery, it was a bolshie boast that Victoria was back in surplus!

Except it isn’t, and it won’t be next year as promised if Labor’s projections are even half as wrong as they were this year.

And of course much of those projections are based on the promised slashing of thousands of jobs from the public service.

Treasurer Jaclyn Symes says up to 3000 jobs could go, while government sources say that figure could be doubled in the pursuit of trimming the fat from the bloated public service.

And herein lies the potentially fatal problem from Labor.

Almost exactly 10 years ago Queensland premier Campbell Newman was obliterated out of political life.

He went from Premier to political casualty in just three years.

Why?

His decision to axe 14,000 public service jobs and commitment to austerity-driven governance.

Like here, Newman cited a “debt crisis” as justification, with jobs slashed across health, education, emergency services, and regional infrastructure.

The scare campaign about debt ahead of the 2022 election had no impact on Daniel Andrews. Picture: Getty

The backlash was swift and widespread.

Public servants, unions, and community groups mobilised against the government, and a narrative of broken promises of a “can do” government took hold.

Job losses aren’t just numbers on a balance sheet. They are real people in real communities.

And in making Victoria’s public sector the fall-guy for a decade of mismanagement the Allan government is playing a risky game.

There are almost 60,000 people employed in the Victorian Public Service and more than 380,000 in the broader public sector.

Add that to the 1.7m regional Victorians who might take exception to the fire services levy and that’s a sizeable army that can mobilise a vicious campaign against the government.

Vowing to axe thousands of jobs from a loyal fanbase, and taxing hard working farmers, in the lead up to a state election is going to play out precariously.

Especially when spruiking a budget “focused on what matters”.

Reading between the lines of the almost fantasy document is to glean that all that matters most is securing a historic fourth term in government.

Which is why the budget seemed more focused at appeasing Labor caucus members and ratings agencies than Victorians with projections and assumptions that make little sense.

Opposition leader Brad Battin is going to start holding the government to account. Picture: Valeriu Campan

This is a fact raised by international ratings agency Moody’s, who have warned that the pretty bow tying the budget papers together could quickly unravel under hopeful forecasts.

Labor, however, has something going for them.

While they’re busy running up a debt of finance, their esteemed opposition continue to run up a debt of credibility.

Dumping a cow turd outside the Premier’s office because you’re unhappy about policy will do that.

As will the ongoing steaming mess that continues to play out between Moira Deeming and John Pesutto, more than two years after they started warring with each other.

Both incidents over the past week detracted significantly from the real work the opposition is trying to do and sucked the momentum out of what should have been a strong budget biteback.

Instead its tepid response did little to actually hold the government to account.

That should change Tuesday under its major new policy announcement to scrap stamp duty for first home buyers spending up to $1m.

The major commitment, the biggest since before the 2022 election, will address key housing affordability concerns and provide a much needed shot in the arm for the economy.

Which is why we need more of this visionary thinking and less crappy stunts.

Because unless the Coalition can sell a concrete plan, Victorians are hardly likely to roll their own dice and give the unknown quantity a go.