Shannon Deery: Mulgrave by-election shows voters don’t know which party to hate most

With a 10 per cent swing against Labor and voters hardly flocking to the Opposition, there are few winners out of the Mulgrave by-election.

Apart from new MP Eden Foster, there appears to be no winners out of the Mulgrave by-election.

For Jacinta Allan, a 10 per cent swing against Labor is not what she would have been hoping for in her first electoral test.

It wasn’t unexpected, there’s a trend of anti-government swings in by-elections triggered by the resignations of Premiers and Prime Ministers.

But coupled with an eight per cent swing against Labor, and Daniel Andrews, in the seat at November’s general election, it’s a worrying sign.

It suggests some within Labor’s heartland are very unhappy.

They just don’t know who they hate most.

Because voters aren’t flocking to the opposition, who are on track to improve their primary vote share from around 17 per cent to 21 per cent.

It’s nothing to get particularly excited about, despite briefing from the fiercest supporters of Opposition Leader John Pesutto that it’s a great win.

Jacinta Allan with new Labor MP for Mulgrave, Eden Foster on election day. Picture: AAP

In reality, just two out of 10 voters are happy to park their vote with the opposition.

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement, but rather an underwhelming result.

They have previously polled as high as 40 per cent in the seat, in 2014, but didn’t have high-profile independent Ian Cook to deal with.

But it’s a reminder to Liberals that they can at least, in theory, be competitive.

In some areas within Mulgrave where campaigning was particularly targeted, the party saw swings of closer to 10 per cent.

But it is being punished for relentless schisms within the party and a failure to back-in the leader.

The Liberal Party’s efforts were also undermined by a failure of party headquarters to properly back a campaign.

Without dedicated party people working long term connections that are rooted in communities, they will never achieve the swings needed to form government.

Independent Ian Cook speaks with voters at a polling station in Noble Park. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

The party needs to unite and invest in long term relationships and candidates.

Pesutto is hellbent on rekindling the fighting spirit the party has lost in recent years.

His problem is distractions in trying to keep the party united, and fending off looming defamation action.

That action, expected to be filed by Moira Deeming this week, could prove to be fatal to his leadership.

Pesutto is also battling constant speculation about his future leadership.

Though even those who don’t support him say there’s no one else ready for the job.

Issues of soaring debt, the Commonwealth Games, energy prices and the cost of living are biting the government hard.

But voters aren’t yet ready to believe the opposition could be a competent government.

The two by-elections of this parliamentary term, both in safe seats, have failed to give a real indication of the political mood.

A by-election in a marginal seat like Ringwood, a live possibility amid the ongoing criminal investigation into Will Fowles, would be a real test.