Shannon Deery: Mulgrave poll the crucial test for Liberal leader John Pesutto

Saturday’s Mulgrave by-election is being touted as a test for the leaders of both major parties but only one really has cause for worry.

Saturday’s Mulgrave by-election is being touted as a test for the leaders of both major parties.

But it is really only Opposition Leader John Pesutto who should be anxious ahead of the vote.

Any talk of this being the first major test for new Premier Jacinta Allan is premature. She has been in the job less than two months and her government’s shaky start has been well documented. We had the surprise tax announcement, the first major act of her government, the youth bail reform backflip and debt growing faster than predicted.

Ms Allan has been inextricably embroiled in the Commonwealth Games saga, and her government is facing a number of legislative roadblocks to key reforms including its desperate WorkCover changes, without which either the state will keep paying out $1bn a year to fund the broken scheme or businesses will be slugged to curb the bleeding.

Despite the problems the new Allan administration is facing, the Premier will be shielded from any fallout of an anti-Labor swing on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

Yet despite the problems the new Allan administration is facing, the Premier will be shielded from any fallout of an anti-Labor swing on Saturday.

History shows it is to be expected.

A look at by-elections triggered by the resignations of 10 past Premiers and Prime Ministers shows swings against the incumbent party in every instance. The most pronounced was last year following the resignation of WA premier Mark McGowan and the subsequent 33 per cent swing against Labor. Labor also copped a 15 per cent swing following Michael Gunner’s resignation in 2022.

The trend is not Labor specific.

There were healthy swings against the Liberals, too, when Gladys Berejiklian, Malcolm Turnbull and Mike Baird quit politics.

The Williamstown by-election following the shock exit of Steve Bracks in 2007 saw an almost 6 per cent swing against Labor.

Internal Labor research has warned Saturday’s by-election will continue the trend. Since 2010, there has also been an average drop in voter turnout at Victorian by-elections of 10.3 per cent.

It is really only Opposition Leader John Pesutto who should be anxious ahead of the vote. Picture: Ian Currie

Across the six by-elections caused by the resignation of a Labor member, that average increased to 11.8 per cent. A drop in voter turnout usually translates to a drop in Labor’s vote.

No-one is seriously suggesting Labor will lose the seat it has held since its inception in 2002.

Some pollsters say that on the right day, if all the stars aligned for him, independent Ian Cook could get up on preferences. It’s a long shot.

But polling has showed his support has improved since the state election.

Where he was seen as a bloke seeking to exact revenge on Daniel Andrews over the infamous iCook saga, he’s second run at the seat has convinced some that he is genuine about representing the local community and being a fiercely independent MP. He is perhaps the biggest problem for John Pesutto because he is attracting normally Liberal-minded voters.

The Liberal Party’s primary vote share plummeted to 17 per cent in the electorate at last year’s general election. Cook snared 18 per cent of first votes. It was by far the Liberals’ worst performance in the electorate.

In 2018 they polled 32 per cent, in 2014 40 per cent and in 2010, with the same candidate that is running this week, 36 per cent.

Pollster Kos Samaras believes the Liberal vote will be interesting.

“If the Liberal Party end up running third here, it will be a clear sign that future Melbourne does not want to be represented by them,” he says.

That’s based on Mulgrave demographics that Samaras believes resemble what middle Melbourne will look like in the coming years.

If Pesutto fails to boost his party’s vote on Saturday he could have the wolves baying at the door. Patience is wearing thin, even among some of his fiercest supporters, with the party’s failure to improve its stocks.

Pesutto remains plagued by his handling of the Moira Deeming expulsion, of which he is still facing the threat of defamation action. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

Almost 12 months into the job and there is much criticism the party is far too focused on bringing Labor down and not enough attention to developing policy, improving brand image, and presenting a real viable alternative government.

Pesutto remains plagued by his handling of the Moira Deeming expulsion, of which he is still facing the threat of defamation action.

On Saturday there was serious internal disquiet about his initial response to the violence that erupted in Caulfield on Friday night.

In a tweet that closely resembled Ms Allan’s response, it failed to squarely denounce the actions of protesters while also citing Islamophobia.

“A Liberal stuffing up the Jewish issue is unheard of, he’s broken new ground,” one senior source said.

Pesutto’s office chalked up the Warrandyte by-election win, in which the party picked up a 10 per cent swing, as an endorsement of his leadership and a new dawn for the party, despite Labor not contesting the seat. But it will be the Mulgrave poll that is the crucial test, and not just because Labor are actually in the running this time. Pesutto has now had almost a year in the role, and time enough for punters to decide whether or not they’re buying what he’s selling.

Shannon Deery is State Politics Editor