Shannon Deery: Daniel Andrews likely to lead Vic Labor to next election

Dan Andrews’ extended absence has given plenty of Labor contenders a chance to prove themselves worthy of his top job.

Two months since Daniel Andrews fell and vanished and the leadership rumblings across Spring Street are getting louder.

There might be unanimous agreement among ALP types the Premier will be back.

But that hasn’t stopped increased speculation about who’s next. Because while there’s no question around his return, opinion remains divided about just how long he’ll stay.

The overwhelming view is, health allowing, he’ll contest the 2022 election and then pass the baton on.

That would give him time to stay in the top job long enough to overtake Steve Bracks and then John Cain Jr and become Victoria’s longest-serving Labor premier.

His legacy would then be immortalised in bronze alongside Cain Jr, Dick Hamer and Sir Albert Dunstan, whose statues stand outside No 1 Treasury Place — an honour saved only for the few who spend 3000-plus days in the top job.

With his legacy set in stone, many believe Andrews would then be happy to step aside for a new Labor generation.

Speculation has been rife for some time that he was planning to bow out before the 2022 election, and the party would let him leave on his own terms. Coronavirus scuttled those plans.

James Merlino has been the state’s acting premier as Daniel Andrews recovers. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Daniel Pockett

He could hardly have set sail in the midst of a once-in-a-century global crisis.

And after navigating Victoria into, then out of, some very murky water, Andrews appears keen to make sure Victoria has properly bounced back before going anywhere.

While that will take time, his sudden leave has forced Labor to seriously consider the succession plan.

The Premier’s extended absence, the longest break he’s had since coming to power in 2014, has given MPs a glimpse at life under a different regime.

Factional allies Jacinta Allan, a frontbench powerhouse, and former attorney-general Jill Hennessy have long been tipped to be the only likely contenders to replace Andrews.

One of the government’s most senior and experienced ministers, Allan has spent her life in politics.

Elected as the member for Bendigo East in 1999 at the age of just 25, the youngest female parliamentarian in Victoria’s history, she’s been an MP for more than two decades.

She might not carry the title of deputy premier, but that’s purely for factional reasons.

Sources say she’s been on a serious charm offensive of late in a bid to boost her chances.

There’s a view she could fall short of securing enough internal support to take over, despite being Andrews’ rumoured preferred successor.

Jacinta Allen gives is Andrews’ rumoured preferred successor. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

Hennessy stepped away from her ministerial responsibilities in December to spend more time with her family.

In her time in cabinet, first as health minister and then as attorney-general, she was one of the government’s most powerful assets.

And she’s managed to keep a strong influence even from the backbench with a reputation for her strong work ethic, commitment to social reform, and attention to policy detail.

Despite stepping away from the ministry, she’s remained as active as ever.

Sources believe she could still harbour leadership ambitions, or at least be encouraged to throw her hat in the ring.

Her ability to appeal to and work with those aligned to both left and right factions.

And there’s obviously a benefit in her staying out of the fray and avoiding being bloodied by the COVID fallout and whatever else might go wrong between now and any leadership change.

Jill Hennessy was one of the government’s most powerful assets. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

But in his six weeks as acting Premier, James Merlino has also emerged as a safe pair of hands, and a genuine contender.

The fact he’s factionally aligned to the Right has always been one of the major hurdles blocking his rise to the top job.

The Right has for too long failed to find a clear candidate despite having held sway internally for so long.

Given the recent stability deal that has seen his Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association team up with Andrews’ Socialist Left, the prospect is no longer fantasy.

Many who may have once scoffed at the prospect have had a change of attitude. In part it’s because of the way in which he’s stepped up and taken control.

There’s also a sense his leadership style leaves MPs more free to run their own race.

Others sometimes mentioned include Ben Carroll and Danny Pearson, though the view is neither is quite ready for such a promotion.

Which leaves a three-horse race, if and when the time comes.