Shannon Deery: By-election results critical for Jacinta Allan

The Prahran and Werribee by-elections this Super Saturday are so critical to both Jacinta Allan and Opposition Leader Brad Battin, but it is Allan who is in the most immediate danger.

It’s been 76 years since the Liberal Party stole a seat from Labor in a Victorian by-election.

It was 1948 and the Liberals won Geelong in an election prompted by the death of Fanny Brownbill who held the seat for a decade.

Since then just 11 of the 70 subsequent by-elections across this state have seen seats change hands.

History suggests voters stick with the status quo when it comes to by-elections.

Which is why the Prahran and Werribee by-elections this Super Saturday are so critical to both Jacinta Allan and Opposition Leader Brad Battin.

It is Allan who is in the most immediate danger.

Labor is only contesting Werribee, a seat it has held since 1979, and privately senior party people expect the seat to fall.

Latest polling has Labor on a primary vote of 22 per cent, and if that sentiment flows through to Werribee the party will lose the seat.

What that means can’t be underestimated.

Allan’s colleagues have become concerned about the direction of the government. Picture: David Crosling

Losing a heartland seat, held by retired former treasurer Tim Pallas for a decade, in her first major electoral test, would challenge the patience of Allan’s colleagues.

They have become increasingly concerned about the direction of the government as it navigates an ever increasing number of spot fires.

Crime, cost of living, debt, budget blowouts, and the health system are all foremost in voters’ minds.

Some fear Victoria has now reached its bread and circuses stage of collapse – instead of dealing with underlying issues all we’re getting is distraction.

We saw it with the announcement that the NFL would play matches here from next year.

It was a weird thing to announce days out from the Werribee by-election, given the electorate is a battler belt for which cost of living is a priority.

And we saw it with the concession by Allan that she would launch a review into failing bail laws.

The seat of Werribee was held by former treasurer Tim Pallas for a decade. Picture: Aaron Francis

It was contradicted almost immediately by police minister Anthony Carbines who was quick to say there was no need for a review.

And why? Because he had a bottom drawer full of ways to alleviate the crime problem.

That he hasn’t deployed them in a crime crisis is nothing short of galling.

And it won’t be lost on the people of Werribee.

Increasingly Labor is looking like a government for which, after 10 years in power, the wheels have fallen off.

If Werribee falls, Allan’s political future will be brought into sharp focus.

Her saving grace may be a lack of desire within her caucus to roll a woman who inherited growing problems from Daniel Andrews.

it will be all eyes on Brad Battin and his new look Opposition after the close of polls. Picture: David Crosling

Those around her, including her closest staff, may not be so lucky if there are demands for some form of change.

At the same time, it will be all eyes on Brad Battin and his new look Opposition after the close of polls.

There is a minimum expectation of massive swings in his favour.

Others expect wins in Werribee and Prahran, saying if he can’t do it when Labor is on its knees, the 17 seats needed to win government will be tough.

Not that Battin needs a statewide 10.9 per cent swing to form government.

But internal critics expect a win given the recent coup on former leader John Pesutto who was flying in the polls.

With increased positivity about the Liberals comes increased expectations.

The test will be if they can both manage those, and exceed them, to give them a real chance to win the election in 2026.

If not, it could reopen wounds Battin and his team hoped they could heal.