Federal budget inaction on cost-of-living pressures could hurt Daniel Andrews
If Victorians don’t get some cost-of-living relief, voters might want to take a baseball bat to the ballot box next month.
Opinion
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Anything short of real action to ease cost-of-living pressures in Tuesday’s federal budget and Daniel Andrews will be left to pay the price.
Amid economic headwinds fuelling higher inflation, slower growth and bigger debt interest repayments than previous forecast, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his first budget.
Prices of food, gas, petrol and rent have skyrocketed in the last six months, with the inflation rate rising to a 21-year high.
The state of the economy is the number one driver of distress throughout the country.
In Victoria, latest polling by Ipsos shows no other issue comes close to worrying voters as much as the cost of living.
Indeed in the past decade, no single issue has polled higher, with 55 per cent of Victorians citing cost of living as the most critical issue.
It’s followed a long way after by healthcare, housing, petrol prices and the economy.
In other words, three of the top five issues relate to the health of the economy and daily cost pressures being felt by Victorians.
Which is why the federal budget will have a big impact on next month’s state election.
Throughout the federal election campaign Anthony Albanese hammered home the cost of living rhetoric.
After coming to office, he was quick to concede he “can’t solve everything” when it comes to the cost of living crisis, saying many of the key drivers are out of his control.
Covid caused the biggest economic shock in almost a century.
The Coalition is demanding Labor put downward pressure on interest rates and inflation without increasing taxes.
It also wants Labor to fulfil key election promises of bring down power bills by $275, implement the stage three tax cuts in full, reduce the cost of living and to increase real wages.
Whatever happens, Albanese will have the next two-and-a-half years to make amends with the electorate before he has to face the music.
Andrews faces the polls next month.
And a lack of alignment between the Federal and State Labor strategy could hurt Andrews.
It’s already on show, with at least $900m of infrastructure projects promised by the former Coalition government across Melbourne to be axed by Labor.
Veteran Labor campaign strategist Kos Samaras says this is likely to hurt Andrews.
“To date, most of his election announcements have skewed towards Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, where the Albanese Government has already flagged cuts,” he says.
“These cuts may punch a great big hole in Dan Andrew’s eastern suburbs strategy.”
Liberal campaign veteran Tony Barry agrees.
“Federal Labor have now given the Liberals a target to hit in the seats it needs to win,” he says.
“It also undermines Daniel Andrews’ message that the Liberals are the party of spending cuts.
“If the Liberals can leverage this there will be some very nervous first-term Labor MPs in the eastern suburbs.”
Federal decisions in the lead up to state elections can have nasty consequences.
Ahead of Andrews coming to power in 2014, then Prime Minister Tony Abbott barged headlong into Victoria’s state election with the decision to raise the fuel excise.
The decision came less than three weeks before polling day and set Liberal Premier Denis Napthine, who was already trailing in the polls, on a collision course with the PM.
It contributed to a voter backlash.
In 2015 Abbott struck again, in the week of the Queensland election, with a controversial decision to knight Prince Phillip.
The incumbent Liberal Nationals went on to lose the election, with the backlash against the knighthood decision causing immeasurable brand damage.
The Liberal Party’s drubbing at the 2018 Victorian election has also been blamed on Federal influences.
A post-election review of the result found swathes of voters who said they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull three months earlier.
The party’s campaign tracking showed that the low point of the State Liberal primary vote in 2018 was recorded shortly after the replacement of Turnbull in August 2018.
It led to a strong “send a message” sentiment that impacted seats including Hawthorn, Box Hill, Burwood, Mount Waverley, Bayswater and Ringwood.
As Albanese said himself in the lead up to the election: “The cost of living is going up. Australians see it every time we visit a supermarket, fill up at a petrol station or pay the monthly bills.”
Seats in Melbourne’s west and southeast – which are already looking wobbly for Andrews – are where voters might be most eagerly anticipating some good news.
If the budget fails to offer real hope of cost-of-living relief, voters might want to take a baseball bat to the ballot box at the next opportunity.
And Andrews is up next.
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