Shannon Deery: The political plus for Daniel Andrews in leadership during a crisis

The floods have been a perfect distraction for Daniel Andrews who now says it’s an inappropriate time to talk about politics.

How quickly a disaster can change an election campaign.

Politically, once tragedy and devastation are put aside, the Victorian floods couldn’t have come at a better time for Daniel Andrews.

When he held the first of now daily press conferences on the unfolding disaster on Friday, there were many other things he should have been speaking about.

Like Victoria’s pandemic declaration order ending after 941 days _ with no clear plan for the future management of potential outbreaks.

Or the WorkSafe investigation into allegations of bullying and inaction from within his own office that was dropped, despite the complainant being interviewed for less than five minutes.

WorkSafe has rejected claims the investigation was inadequate saying the former Labor MP at the centre of the probe, Kaushaliya Vaghela , refused to fully cooperate with investigators or respond to attempts to contact her.

There was also the Northern Hospital whistleblower who warned Victorians would die in the chronically understaffed and overrun emergency department.

Andrews has yet to be asked about, nor responded to, any of the above, such is the distraction a crisis provides.

Premier Daniel Andrews flies over the flooding Campaspe river near Rochester.

Indeed, he even banned political or policy questioning out of respect for flood victims —though his office continues to roll out pre-election announcements.

Distraction isn’t the only benefit of a crisis.

It can also cement the reputation of an incumbent leader and boost approval ratings, a handy thing four weeks out from polls opening.

Political academics have long discussed the close link between leadership and crisis.

Arjen Boin and Paul't Hart described the link as an “intertwined phenomena”.

“People experience crises as episodes of threat and uncertainty, a grave predicament requiring urgent action,” they wrote.

“It is a natural inclination in such distress to look to leaders to ‘do something’.

“When crisis leadership results in reduced stress and a return to normality, people herald their ‘true leaders’.

“Successful performance in times of collective stress turns leaders into statesmen.”

US President George W. Bush’s approval ratings soared in the days following the infamous September 11 attacks.

As did those of New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Australian wartime prime minister John Curtin is almost universally regarded as our greatest leader because of the way he tackled the global crisis.

Andrews has proven this phenomenon throughout the pandemic.

Despite facing intense scrutiny and criticism over his pandemic management, in November 2020, a whopping 71 per cent of Victorians approved of how Andrews was handling his job.

A year later that rating had dipped, yet there remained a clear majority of 60.5 per cent of Victorian electors who still approved.

Andrews getting a briefing from emergency services on the flood crisis.

This despite Victorians suffering through the world’s longest lockdown in which playgrounds were closed and loved ones were denied proper funerals.

We were banned from fishing or playing golf by ourselves.

We were allowed to walk down the street but “only with a valid reason”.

Thousands of residents in public housing towers were locked down, and Melburnians were locked inside a ring of steel.

Let’s not forget, too, that 801 people died after Covid escaped from the shoddy first iteration of the hotel quarantine scheme.

But still, Andrews was doing something.

Those who approved of his Covid crisis management cited his strong leadership and clear communication, whether or not they agreed with individual decisions.

Andrews is good in a crisis.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Andrews were a united front in Bendigo on Sunday.

“The reasons expressed by those who approve of the job he’s doing credit his overall handling of the pandemic for maintaining their support,” Roy Morgan chief Michelle Levine said.

“They say he has made the unpopular decisions when he had to and he didn’t give into pressure to avoid lockdowns just for an easy way out.

“They have felt secure in the strong leadership he has provided during the pandemic and feel his communication skills have shone via a consistent tone and sticking to the facts.”

There were many who disapproved of the job Andrews did.

They accused him of being “arrogant”, “reckless”, “dictatorial” and “dishonest”.

“Those opposed blame the lockdowns imposed by Premier Andrews for putting people out of businesses, leading to increased loneliness and the destruction of people’s livelihoods. They claim he ‘avoids responsibility’ and has left a ‘trail of lies and debt’,” Levine said.

“There are also many in the ‘anti-Andrews’ camp who are staunchly opposed to vaccination mandates and the proposed new pandemic emergency legislation which they say is being brought because he is power-hungry and needs to be in control.”

None of that will apply in the context of the premier’s flood response, which has been swift.

On Friday he wrote to the major banks asking them to urgently help anyone affected.

By Monday he had announced a $351 million package to give regional Victorian communities the immediate support they need.

For many, hearing the premier on radio or watching daily press conferences yet again will take them straight back to lockdown inexorableness.

It’s been non-stop updates from the emergency control centre, helicopter rides and feel-good community hand shaking since last week.

At the same time Opposition leader Matthew Guy has been all but locked out of media coverage _ the momentum he was starting to make ahead of the election at risk of being swept away.

Just how Andrews would like it.