Election 2016: Whoever wins, we all need to work together
THE Coalition is best placed to win the election, but whoever leads the nation must give us strong government we can all follow, writes Jeff Kennett.
Opinion
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THE federal election approaches and already about 25 per cent of us have cast our vote at a polling place or via the mail. So let me tell you why I think the Coalition Government will be returned.
A long election normally favours the government of the day and there has been no one issue from either side of politics that has generated much, or any, emotion among the public.
There has been no all-consuming issue, or foul-up, that has the public waiting with baseball bats to punish the government, as was the case at the previous election. The Opposition must win 21 seats to form government in its own right. It’s an almost impossible task at the best of times, let alone without a community demanding change. Not enough of the public are ready to forget or forgive previous Labor governments.
This election has become one in which the majority of the public are simply resigned to casting their votes. Apart from politicians, their staff and sections of the media, most people want this campaign and the election over. The apathy is everywhere and that’s sad because determining the country’s managers for the next three years is important. Many people I have spoken to are prepared to give Malcolm Turnbull a go in his own right and some have said he looks more like a prime minister.
Labor’s vote, I suspect, will increase, but most of that increase will occur in the seats it holds already rather than the seats it must win to form government.
Of course, Labor will win some, but nowhere near enough.
That said, I think Labor leader Bill Shorten has campaigned extraordinarily well. He has been fresh, relaxed, set the pace in policy releases and been bold. But I don’t believe it will be enough to gain the 21 seats his party needs.
And he has to deal with leakage of votes to the Greens, as will the Coalition. In the main, though, Greens votes return on distribution of preferences to Labor, which will help it shore up some of its seats and maybe win one or two from the Coalition.
Then there is the impact of Senator Nick Xenophon’s party in South Australia. It might win one House of Representatives seat, in Mayo.
I hand it to both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten — an eight-week campaign is a hell of a task, physically and mentally, and they have burnt the candle at both ends. Only those who have led a political party through an election campaign can understand the effort it takes, so I congratulate both men.
The Senate will be again a mixture of parties, interests and people. Any chance of either of the major parties having the numbers to pass their legislation unchallenged was lost the moment the election was called.
It will be interesting to see if the election result allows for the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission, one of the reasons the double-dissolution election was called. For that to happen, the Coalition must have the majority of votes when the House of Representatives and Senate sit together. I believe that outcome is at risk. My other fear is that the Prime Minister’s decision to call a double dissolution will result in Pauline Hanson being returned as a Queensland senator. If so, I will have to take a deep breath and simply accept the democratic process.
I have explained why I think the Coalition will be returned. Now let me explain why I hope it is.
I do not think Labor can win the 21 seats it needs, but what if it is able to form government with any Greens and independents elected to the House of Representatives?
That would be disastrous and would lead to instability. Australia cannot afford another three years of weak government on top of that we’ve endured for almost a decade.
With all the challenges we face in Australia, we desperately need a strong government that will actually govern.
I believe the Coalition is the only group that can win convincingly in the House of Representatives and I hope they win well enough to provide that strong government.
A clear win will also send a message to the Senate that a government has been elected with a firm mandate.
Of course, with both major parties promising billions in new expenditure, I fear we are not facing the challenges before us realistically.
Regardless of the result, we all need to work together for the next few years. The truth is that there are good men and women who will be elected on July 2 — on all sides of the parliament.
If you took the best of those elected and gave them Cabinet posts, you would probably have a better government than from just one side of parliament.
No political party alone has all the skills, the knowledge, the answers.
It won’t happen, but it would be a great idea if Australia had the best of those elected running the country.
Have a good day.
Jeff Kennett is a former premier of Victoria
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