Daniel Andrews’ guts and presence will slay nice guy Michael O’Brien at next election

The anti-Dan brigade should prepare themselves for him to romp in at the next election. Here are the three reasons why.

Daniel Andrews will romp in at the next election.

This is the bad news for the anti-Dan lot, who have convinced themselves Victorians will throw Labor out when the election comes.

How can I be so certain? Let me give three reasons.

First, Andrews has gone from being branded Dictator Dan who locked down the state unnecessarily, to the new gold standard for managing severe Covid outbreaks. He might have delivered tough medicine but look at the alternative being delivered by the previous gold-standard holder Gladys Berejiklian in NSW.

What is now abundantly clear is that delayed lockdowns, or soft lockdowns, merely extend the pain. Even Andrews’s harshest critics recognise his unwavering determination to get the job done.

Daniel Andrews delivered tough medicine but now looks good compared to NSW. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Daniel Pockett

Increasingly, I hear people saying: “Thank god Dan imposed a tough lockdown and stuck to it when it counted”. He got the state from a mind-boggling 725 daily cases down to zero.

Victorians now realise just how monumental that effort was. We all played a part. But it also took strong, unwavering leadership.

Andrews is right to call on NSW to implement a ring of steel around Sydney to protect other states. Have conservative commentators who are criticising him forgotten that it’s what Victoria did to protect NSW and other states?

Andrews knows that you don’t get the result by just imploring individuals to “do the right thing.” Victorians can now see that politicians and overseas countries who baulk at tough lockdowns pay the price in rampant Covid infections.

Victorians are not stupid. They know there were failures in Victoria’s hotel quarantine system and there were failures in aged care. The Andrews government was severely criticised for the hotel quarantine failures, while the Morrison government, which had responsibility for aged care, seemed to get off virtually “Scott-free” – although Morrison is increasingly seen as having failed in the vaccination rollout.

The hotel quarantine outbreak won’t impact Andrews’ chances of winning. Picture: Wayne Taylor

When the election comes next year, Victorians will give credit to the Andrews government for improvements in quarantine facilities and for establishing an inquiry into quarantine. One can’t really blame Andrews for the failure of that inquiry to identify who made the decision to use contractors. One must blame the inquiry for that.

Whatever the causes of Covid outbreaks, there is a greater understanding of how strong determined leadership has met and will continue to meet the challenges. This will ultimately play well for Labor in the election.

The second reason Andrews will win is this: How people vote is affected by their impressions of the character of political leaders. What counts in leaders is whether they have presence and guts. Even opponents of Andrews recognise the guy has presence. He stood up in front of cameras every day for four months and led the state out of Covid.

I don’t always agree with him, but I do respect the fact that he is a risk-taker when it comes to implementing public policy. This is evident in the massive program of infrastructure development, and groundbreaking social and environmental initiatives. It’s also evident in the way he has called out NSW by seeking a ring of steel around Sydney. Something the Victorian opposition has not been prepared to do.

I was in cabinet alongside Andrews. In cabinets of 20 ministers, about five or six have real presence. They are the ones who influence debates and are listened to carefully — and they usually also have factional force behind them. Andrews was one of those five or six.

Opposition leader Michael O’Brien. Picture: David Caird

Contrast Andrews’s guts and presence to his opponent. Michael O’Brien is a nice guy. I like him. But he is not going to win against Andrews. He has had plenty of media opportunities to cut through but has failed. The rumblings have started, and O’Brien is likely to be challenged. Matthew Guy has ruled himself out and I cannot see anyone with that combination of presence and guts to take on Andrews.

And third, Labor will win because it has the numbers. In the Legislative Assembly where governments are formed, Labor has more than double the number of seats – 55 Labor to 27 Coalition. That means Labor will be fighting from a position of defending its current members rather than trying to win new seats.

There is advantage in incumbency. Sitting members have had a chance to develop their own profile and make connections into their communities. Many Labor members have been assisted by record spending on schools, transport, health, and community services. It’s a huge ask for the Liberal party to recover from a landslide loss at the last election to win government – especially with its current leadership and policy offerings.

Victorians don’t like being in lockdown. Many want to be able to visit their loved ones overseas and come back to home quarantine. But these things will only happen when we have adequate vaccination and the Covid monster under control. Victorians know it will take clear-headed leadership of the Andrews variety to get there.

So to all of those who have spent the past year-and-a-half dreaming of the day that Andrews and Labor would be kicked out of office – keep dreaming.