Coalition badly needs a seating plan that works
THE state election is looming but with the Coalition yet to approve some candidates, MPs are getting edgy, writes Matt Johnston.
Opinion
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THE dust is slowly settling from Labor’s latest factional fistfight, just in time for us to get a clearer view of what is happening in Liberal land.
Labor’s bare-knuckle brawling was pretty ugly for a while, especially once the leaders of the firefighters’ union — the ones who say they hate their workforce being politicised — intervened to try to kill the political career of Brunswick MP Jane Garrett.
Eventually, the power of numbers won, with Garrett getting top spot on the ALP Eastern Victoria ticket once Daniel Mulino (PhD Economics, Yale) agreed to head to Canberra alongside Bill Shorten.
Senior Labor sources were at pains to say this week that now preselections were sorted, it would bring “peace in our time” — which, if you know the ALP, means bugger all but at least is a worthy ambition.
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As the Garrett-Mulino deals were being written in blood, and federal preselection spots were dished out to former or current political advisers and union officials, the Liberals had their own internal issue.
Like a wobbly canary in a coal mine, Western Victoria Liberal MP Simon Ramsay emerged to announce he had been caught drink-driving. He later resigned. The 63-year-old, who apparently bicycled home from a lunch before getting into his car later in the evening after a boozy dinner, had a blood-alcohol content almost four times the legal limit.
News that Ramsay was riding off into the sunset was greeted with vulgar enthusiasm by some Liberals who were already plotting his removal. They were spurred on by the fact that he used his conscience to vote for voluntary assisted-dying laws last year.
That was one of several critical Bills decided this term in the Legislative Council, which has been a hive of activity partially because of the government’s perilous numbers there and the feral nature of modern politics. Labor has only 14 MPs, so it needs the support of either the Opposition or the Greens and two of five other crossbenchers to get legislation through.
There is a strong view that Liberal and National numbers in the Upper House — down from 21 seats in 2010 to 16 in 2014 — could rise again at the next election.
What that would mean would depend on who forms government, of course, but as one MP pointed out: “Win or lose, it is really important.”
Aside from its core legislation, the reason the Andrews Government has been able to enact large social policy changes that it didn’t promise at the last election — such as euthanasia and a trial of a medically supervised injecting room — is because it has the support of crossbench MPs.
While the Greens will still have numbers in the Council, there’s no way that all of the crossbenchers will win a seat again. Whoever is in government or Opposition will have to build new relationships and alliances to pass or block Bills — unless it has the numbers in its own right as the Coalition did in 2010.
With all that in mind, you would think the Liberals and Nationals would have all candidates ready to go in key Upper House areas — especially given that the date for the state election is already set and is only 121 days away.
For some reason, however, positions in seats such as the eminently winnable Northern Metro and Eastern Victoria haven’t been rubber-stamped.
Most of the blame for this has been sheeted home to the party’s administrative committee, with the presumption that there are games going on behind the scenes about getting preferred candidates up to scratch or into winnable positions themselves.
Some Liberals fear the party’s admin committee is preparing to try to flex its muscles after forces aligned to conservative powerbroker Marcus Bastiaan recently won positions of power.
But as one Liberal said yesterday, there would be a revolt if the democratic process of candidate selection was undermined.
Another Liberal I spoke to had a very different take. “There is a push for further generational change. Admin has to do something. We are not going to sit idly by while we lose.”
Come again? Statewide polls have shown the Libs and Labor at 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis, while the bookies have the parties neck and neck. And of course, even if the Coalition doesn’t get over the line in the Lower House, it could find itself in a solid position in the Upper House.
This week, Opposition Leader Matthew Guy gave his parliamentary team a passionate pep talk in the party room, urging them to stay focused and not get distracted from the main game of winning the election.
While he was warning about incoming Andrews Government dirt, and perhaps hinting at the Ramsay drama, his words also neatly underline the absurdity of not having locked-in candidates for winnable Upper House seats.
— Matt Johnston is state politics editor.
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