Cancelling the Games might become one of the greatest political miscalculations in recent history

The disastrous decision-making involved in the Games’ planning raises the question: does this stubborn, proceed at all costs approach operate throughout the rest of government?

It’s hard to know where the Commonwealth Games debacle ends for the Allan government.

But it’s looking increasingly unlikely it will be able to extricate itself from the problem during this election cycle.

Since its abrupt cancellation in July, there has been an unrelenting focus on the event which shows no signs of stopping.

It is being examined as part of a broader federal probe which is due to report in December.

It is the focus of a state parliamentary inquiry which will report by April 2025.

The Victorian Auditor General will launch its own investigation.

The Allan government will be unable to extricate itself from the Commonwealth Games problem during this election cycle. Picture: Valeriu Campan

And if the event goes ahead, with officials hopeful it can remain in Australia, it will virtually coincide with the next state election.

Which means in the immediate lead-up to the vote, Victorians will be reminded of the government’s mismanagement of the failed event.

Despite the investigations already underway, we are no closer to having a clearer picture of what went wrong.

If anything, the waters are becoming more muddied.

The auditor general’s office spells out sound reasons for getting to the bottom of the mess.

“The state has deployed substantial resources and taxpayer’s funds to bid for, develop and terminate Victoria’s involvement in hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games,” it says.

“In addition, there may be residual financial exposures for the state arising from the termination.

“As the full cost of these actions to the state currently remains unknown, there is a strong imperative for assessing this, and assuring the Parliament and the public that the government has received comprehensive advice that has contributed to effectively estimating, managing and minimising these costs.”

There is another reason the Games decision has captured such public attention: the suspicion that it has actually exposed a far wider problem.

On Monday questions about Jacinta Allan’s involvement as the minister responsible for the event were again raised.

Questions have been raised about Jacinta Allan’s involvement in the Games decision. Picture: David Crosling

Commonwealth Games Australia boss Craig Phillips told the state inquiry that as late as April Ms Allan assured officials the event was safe.

This was despite soaring cost pressures that she had been warned about as early as February.

“We got the impression that she was very confident that the budget would be available,” Mr Phillips said.

The inquiry is being hampered by a confidentiality clause in the Games cancellation agreement that limits details of significant negotiations.

It is also being hampered by Ms Allan’s ongoing refusal not to appear before the upper house inquiry.

As a lower house MP she can’t be compelled to attend, however leave has been granted on multiple occasions for lower house MPs to do so. In 2007 Minister for Consumer Affairs, Anthony Robinson, testified at an upper house Legislation Committee probing the Liquor Control Reform Amendment.

Between 2003 and 2006, leave was granted for any Minister of the Assembly to attend meetings of the same committee which was new and being trialled.

What we do know is that in February the Games organising committee requested an additional $722m in funding.

In March, Ms Allan was briefed about a $2bn cost blowout.

Again in April Victoria 2026 Organising Committee chair Peggy O’Neal warned Ms Allan the cost would be “significantly in excess” of original estimates.

Despite this, it is claimed that the government showed no interest in entertaining serious proposals to drive down costs.

Relocating some events to Melbourne, as was suggested, was not an option.

Instead, it stubbornly forged ahead with plans to proceed with an expensive regional style games that ultimately couldn’t be delivered.

The 2026 Commonwealth Games were due to be held in regional Victoria. Picture: Supplied

Which begs the question: does this stubborn, proceed at all costs approach, operate throughout the rest of government?

The estimated costs for the Commonwealth Games, according to the government, blew out from $2.6bn to up to $7bn in about 18 months.

Are cost blowouts across our major projects the fault of unforeseen circumstance, or a failure in case management.

Is our current debt burden – set to skyrocket to $171bn by 2026-27, or almost $70,000 for every household – a consequence of circumstance or mismanagement?

The political fallout of cancelling the Games might become one of the greatest political miscalculations in recent Victorian history.

Because the real danger for the state government is not the scrapping of the event itself.

There is real anger in some regional communities, and visceral anger among some sporting groups.

But in the wider electorate views are split between those who never wanted the Games, and those who accept that $7bn for a 12 day event was excessive.

However, running parallel to that is a deeper concern that the Games has exposed a scant disregard for proper process and fiscal responsibility.

Those concerns became wedded to the Andrews government and are now, very firmly, attaching themselves to Ms Allan.