Andrew Bolt: Weak, divided Australia a sitting duck in war

Lazy, complacent and divided Australia would be a sitting duck in a war that Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has urged his military to prepare for.

Last weekend I read a frightening report. I’ve never been so scared for my country, and I beg our politicians to read this, too, before it’s too late.

Or is it too late already?

What I read is a report commissioned by our Australian Defence Force from the Rand Corporation, an international defence think tank.

The title sounds bland: Defence Mobilisation Planning Comparative Study. What it describes though, is a shock: we’re sitting ducks in a war with, say, the menacing Chinese dictatorship.

Our army isn’t ready. Our government isn’t ready. Our industry isn’t ready. And Australians are not ready – and may never be.

Of course, this report on Australia’s readiness for a full-on mobilisation for a “total defence” does not put things that bluntly. Consultants don’t like abusing clients.

It uses more polite, even eye-glazing, language, like this: “Defence does not yet effectively, or explicitly, incorporate a whole- of-nation construct, such as social cohesion, citizen support, and material and psychological resilience, into its planning.”

But it describes a chaos that puts our national survival at risk if China does soon start a war in our region – one Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has publicly urged his military to prepare for.

Rather than quote more turgid text, let me sum up in simpler words what this report says.

Chinese soldiers assembling during military training in China's Xinjiang region. Picture: AFP

It makes the obvious point that in any serious war – “in extremis”, and not some faraway flag-waving mission as a US sidekick – our small defence force is going to need to scramble together a lot of civilians to help defend us, especially experts in areas such as IT and cyber security.

It will also need extra “transportation, equipment, health services, facilities, training, communications”, plus stockpiles of all the critical stuff we now must ship in, not just fuel but things such as microprocessors, essential for computers.

This report of course does not mention China, but I will. What happens if China’s navy cuts off our sea lanes?

All that is obvious, but let me list all the things this report makes clear we’ve failed to do.

It says the ADF has not identified exactly which experts it would need to call up in a crisis or how to get them.

It says industry has not been required to keep all key assets secure, or make plans to aid our armed forces.

In fact, it says we’ve had no formal review of our mobilisation plans for 31 years, and the plan we have is the wrong one, because it still assumes we have a big industrial base.

Wrong. Our industrial base has been almost wiped out. Manufacturing once employed nearly a third of Australian workers, but Asian factories then started up and Australia, says the report, got “complacent, especially with respect to innovation”.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has publicly urged his military to prepare for war in the region. Picture: Getty

Our manufacturing – critical in war – now contributes just 6 per cent of our GDP, compared to 15-20 per cent overseas.

That’s left us dangerously dependent on overseas supplies. As the report points out, this pandemic exposed that weakness, showing we even import 90 per cent of our medicines.

So how can we keep fighting if our supplies are cut by war or naval blockade? The report suggests we haven’t even worked out what we should be stockpiling.

It says, fine, we’re at least now trying to build our own warships, but even in defence industries we rely on big multinational companies, and “it remains unclear (and untested), where, in times of crisis, the loyalties of such multinationals reside”.

We could even be left without cargo ships for transport, and the report suggests we get ourselves a merchant navy.

All this is terrible. But it gets worse. The report warns Australians may actually be too disconnected and divided for any “total defence” of their country.

It says it’s “decisive in the outcome” for citizens to have “stamina, resilience, and the will to fight”, but our politicians have not got us ready.

One problem in building any “broadbased psychological resilience” among Australians is we lack national service “or a strong national narrative”. The report does not need to add we’re tearing ourselves apart with identity politics and victim worship.

All this is alarming, without even considering our problems in getting the new weaponry we need – our troubled new submarines and joint fighters.

We’ve been lazy. We’ve been complacent and blind. And now we’re divided and flabby, utterly dependent on overseas supplies that could be cut off in an instant.

If we don’t wake up fast, we’re toast.