SA’s flu death toll rises again with 92 confirmed flu-related deaths so far in 2019

South Australia’s horror flu season continues as the death toll rises to 92 and the number of confirmed cases jumps to 20,474.

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South Australia’s horror flu season continues as the number of confirmed cases rises to 20,474, up 508 cases in one week.

It is a huge jump from the same time last year when the number of confirmed cases was just 1579 .

The flu death toll is up a further 10 cases to 92 confirmed influenza-related deaths so far this year.

That includes one in January, three in March, 19 in April, 56 in May, 10 in June and three in July.

However, there is a lag in the data so the numbers for each month may yet rise further.

The state’s 2019 flu season remains on track to surpass the record set in 2017, after an unprecedented early start leading to widespread illness and a sudden increase in the number of flu-associated deaths reported to SA Health.

The number of confirmed flu cases has risen to 20,474, up 508 cases in one week.

Experts describe a surprising, strange and unpredictable flu season, with the prospect of twin peaks looming as the number of cases and subsequent deaths rises, falls and then rises again.

The 2017 flu season was the state’s worst, with 124 deaths and 28,486 notified cases in SA.

When it comes to forecasting flu illness and death rates for the remainder of the year, experts are cautious because they are in uncharted territory.

University of Adelaide Professor Nigel Stocks is director of the Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network, which takes a big-picture view of influenza-like illness for the Commonwealth through a network of GPs.

He says the rate of flu notifications appears to have peaked and then declined in recent weeks, but typically there is a peak in flu notifications and admissions to hospital in late August-early September.

“We can be fairly confident that we will have two peaks,” Professor Stocks said.

“But exactly how big each one is relative to the other I’m not prepared to say, because we haven’t experienced an early peak before and we haven’t had the level of immunisations that we’ve had in South Australia before.

“The circulating viruses are similar to what has been circulating over the last several years, but still causing a significant amount of illness in the community.”

One of Australia’s top influenza experts, Professor Robert Booy from the National Centre for Immunisation Research, says it’s been a “very strange, very early onset and unpredictable year” so far, so it’s hard to know what the future holds.

“The truth is it’s an inexact science and we don’t know for sure,” he said. “All I can give you is best guess and my best guess is we’ve had the worst of it and it’s going to start declining this month.”

He said the World Health Organisation’s collaborating centre in Melbourne remained confident, on the best available evidence, that there was a reasonable match between the vaccine and circulating strains.

“I recognise that South Australia has had a lot of trouble and it’s been more severe than other states, as to why I don’t have a good reason,” he said. “Per capita you’ve definitely had more of a problem and I recognise that.”

Originally published as SA’s flu death toll rises again with 92 confirmed flu-related deaths so far in 2019