Newspoll: Labor extends lead over Coalition, edges towards majority government

Labor has widened its lead over the Coalition as the federal election campaign heads into its second week. See what Australian voters think.

Labor has widened its lead over the Coalition as the federal election campaign heads into its second week.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is getting closer to holding onto a majority government, even though voters see Opposition leader Peter Dutton as the stronger and more decisive leader, according to an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian.

The poll shows Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a single-point gain for Labor and mirrors the result of the 2022 federal election, where Labor won with a slim majority of just one seat.

Labor’s primary vote remains steady at 33 per cent, showing no boost for Mr Albanese during the first week of the campaign.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail in Queensland. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

The rise in Labor’s lead comes from a one-point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote, which is now at 36 per cent, its lowest level since June 2024. This decline continues a trend of falling support for the Coalition since March.

Mr Dutton has reduced Mr. Albanese’s lead as the preferred prime minister to just eight points, but he has fallen behind on key qualities that are important in the leadership race.

The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen four points since November, when it reached a high of 40 per cent – the first time it had achieved this since 2021.

The fall appears to have led to gains for Pauline Hanson’s minor right-wing party, One Nation, which lifted a point to seven per cent – two points higher than the party’s 2022 election result of five per cent.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson. Picture: Supplied.

The Greens remain unchanged on 12 per cent according to the latest poll, which is also in line with its 2022 result.

Similarly, other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, remain on 12 per cent with no movement from the previous poll published last week. This result is 2.5 per cent lower than their result at the last election.

The first Newspoll of the campaign proper shows both major parties locked in a contest that reflects the last election result, which resulted in a combined record-low level of primary vote support for the Coalition and Labor at 68 per cent of the overall primary vote.

The last time Labor was ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred split of 52-48 was in May 2024.

Labor won the last election with a primary vote of 32.6 per cent against the Coalition’s 35.7 per cent, which produced a two-party preferred result of 52.1 per cent in favour of Labor, due to the large preference flow from the Greens.

In good news Mr Albanese, the poll shows he increased his lead as the more trustworthy and caring leader and has pulled ahead of Mr Dutton for the first time when it comes to understanding the major issues and when considered on the measure of leadership experience.

The last time leader attributes were tested was in December 2024. Mr Dutton had led Mr Albanese since the last election as the leader considered to be more experienced until now, with Mr Albanese overtaking Mr Dutton to lead 71 per cent to 68 per cent.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton campaigning in Tasmania. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

Mr Dutton maintains a convincing lead over Mr Albanese on who is considered the more decisive and stronger leader – 62 per cent to 48 per cent; and he has also held on to a slight leader over Mr Albanese on the question of which leader has a vision for Australia, although Mr Albanese has closed the gap on this measure to a single point.

But Mr Dutton has lost ground as the leader with a greater understanding of the major issues, with Mr Albanese now leading on this measure for the first time.

The Prime Minister also extended his lead as less arrogant, more caring and more likeable than his rival.

Voters’ views of both leaders have remained mostly steady, with a slight improvement for Mr Dutton over the past week and a two-point drop in net satisfaction with Mr Albanese.

The Prime Minister’s approval rating decreased by one point to 42 per cent, while dissatisfaction rose to 53 per cent. His net satisfaction rating dropped from minus 11 to minus nine during the first week of the campaign.

Mr Dutton’s approval rating increased by one point to 38 per cent, with dissatisfaction unchanged. His net approval rating improved from minus 17.

The biggest shift for Mr Dutton came in the head-to-head comparison of who would be the better prime minister.

Mr Dutton gained two points, reaching 40 per cent, while Mr Albanese dropped one point to 48 per cent. However, there is still a larger gap than in January, when Mr Dutton had narrowed the margin to just three points.

The latest Newspoll was conducted from March 31 to April 4, with 1250 voters across Australia interviewed online.

Originally published as Newspoll: Labor extends lead over Coalition, edges towards majority government