Inside Liberal leadership crisis: How Malcolm Turnbull turned a tired old plot on its head

THE day started out like a tired old film about a normal Canberra leadership crisis Australians have grown used to since Howard was PM. Until director Malcolm Turnbull threw in several violent plot twists.

UNTIL the moment Malcolm Turnbull stepped out into the prime ministerial courtyard shortly after 1pm yesterday, you could argue this was a normal Canberra leadership crisis of the sort Australians have grown used to since John Howard left the building.

We’ve watched this movie before and know the plot by heart. It starts with the rotten opinion polls and panicked marginal-seat holders before moving on to protestations of loyalty from a potential challenger.

Then comes the backgrounding to journalists that the pretender is “ready to go” and “has the numbers”.

VICTORIANS ON THE LIBERAL LEADERSHIP CRISIS

BOLT: SELFISH TURNBULL PLOTS TO DESTROY LIBERAL PARTY

RITA PANAHI: TURNBULL LEAVES LIBERALS FRACTURED, WEAKENED

TERRY MCCRANN: TURNBULL’S FAILURES DOWN TO HIS OWN INEPTITUDE

Peter Dutton checks his phone as he follows Greg Hunt into the Reps Chamber. Picture: Ray Strange

Just before the climax arrives with the calling of party room ballots, we see a procession of the ashen-faced formerly loyal lieutenants put on their saddest faces to announce that it is with the greatest regret they have decided to withdraw their support from the leader.

It ends with the result being declared before the defeated leader or challenger announces their loyalty to the victor. And until Turnbull’s press conference, everything was running to script.

The day began with the resignations of the junior ministers Zed Seselja and Michael Sukkar — or rather their re-resignations, as they offered to quit on Tuesday.

Then Peter Dutton dropped his bombshell on Twitter, that he had told Turnbull “the majority of the party room no longer supported his leadership” and had asked him to convene a party room meeting at which he (Dutton) would challenge for the leadership.

It was 7.43am. And it was on again.

At 9.35, the big guns of the Cabinet fired up. Finance minister Mathias Cormann, communications minister Mitch Fifield and jobs and innovation minister Michaelia Cash stepped out before the cameras to explain that it was with heavy hearts they had told the PM he no longer had the support of the party room and that they were resigning.

9.35: Mitch Fifield, Mathias Cormann and Michaelia Cash explain how they had told the PM he no longer had the support of the party room.

At 10.15, the ALP decided to join the party — unsuccessfully moving a motion in the House of Representatives to refer Peter Dutton to the High Court to test whether the childcare centres his family have a pecuniary interest in disqualify him from sitting in parliament.

The next swath of resignations came before 11am, with Michael Keenan, Greg Hunt, Steven Ciobo, Alan Tudge and Angus Taylor wandering into the PM’s office.

Half an hour later, the government successfully moved a motion to shut down the House for the day, but not before Bill Shorten had delivered a killer line that we will surely be hearing again before this parliament is finally dissolved.

“What we have seen in the last few days is, we see a government and a Liberal Party who know that they need to focus on the needs of the people, but they just cannot help themselves,” he said, before adding: “Now, no one in this parliament in the last decade can hold their head high about bitterness and argument, but what I recognise is that Labor has learned its lesson over the last five years.”

When the media crowd gathered in front of Malcolm Turnbull’s office doors, the expectation was that reality had been accepted. The only question was: would the Prime Minister be quitting or contesting the leadership when the inevitable party room ballot was held?

Then Turnbull stepped forward and calmly lobbed hand grenades into the parliamentary Liberal Party.

Firstly, despite the procession of resignations and a declared challenger in the field, he would not be calling a party room meeting without a letter with the signatures of 43 Liberal MPs.

“These are momentous times and it’s important that people are accountable for what they’re doing,” he said.

It was, an MP later observed, a demand that his enemies sign his death warrant in their own blood — he knows Labor will use it against them at the election.

VOX POP: WHAT DO MARGINAL SEAT VOTERS THINK ABOUT LIBS’ CRISIS?

Malcolm Turnbull calmly lobbed hand grenades into the parliamentary Liberal Party. Picture: Kym Smith

If he received this letter, he would be calling a meeting of party room for midday on Friday. Not before. And not without the signatures.

Then came the second grenade.

“It’s important,” he went on, “that before the party meeting is held, we have access to the advice of the Solicitor-General on the eligibility of Mr Dutton to sit in the parliament … This is a very, very significant point … I cannot underline too much how important it is that anyone who seeks to be prime minister of Australia is eligible to be a member of parliament. Because a minister, let alone a prime minister, who is not eligible to sit in the House is not capable of validly being a minister or exercising any of the powers of a minister.”

The day before, the Labor Party had furnished Turnbull’s office with a copy of their legal advice that Dutton has a Section 44 problem.

Now the Liberal Prime Minister of Australia was using it against one of his own ministers. Incredible stuff. But he was just warming up.

Would he be staying on if he was removed as PM?

“No, I’ve made it very clear that I believe that former prime ministers are best out of the parliament.”

So choose Dutton and you will immediately lose your one-seat majority. And with three of the four crossbenchers hostile and at least one Nat threatening to join them, even if he manages to pass a confidence motion — it is odds-on that Labor will be able to refer him to the High Court.

But as extraordinary as this was, it was what he had to say about Dutton’s supporters that elevates this from an ordinary challenge to a battle for the soul of the Liberal Party.

He said: “The reality is that a minority in the party room supported by others outside the parliament have sought to bully, intimidate others into making this change of leadership that they’re seeking. I think what we’re witnessing — what we have witnessed at the moment — is a very deliberate effort to pull the Liberal Party further to the Right … what began as a minority has by a process of intimidation, you know, persuaded people that the only way to stop the insurgency is to give in to it.”

It would be easy to dismiss this as the delusions of a bunkered narcissist, but for the fact many Liberals in and out of parliament believe it to be true. Indeed, in the past few days many have said they fear that we are witnessing the end of the Liberal Party.

Which isn’t to say that Dutton — if it is to be Dutton — wouldn’t present a problem for Labor with traditional Labor voters. He would.

But they fear he would also drive a whole lot of moderate Liberal voters into the arms of the ALP. Turnbull has just written the ad for them.

Bill Shorten knows the Liberals have just given him a once-in-a-generation chance to steal their primary vote. It is not a chance he will squander.

[e-mail]

MORE:

HOW THE LIBERAL PARTY IMPLODED

WHY THERE’S NO SIMPLE ANSWER TO DUTTON’S ELIGIBILITY

SEARCH FOR A MESSIAH MAKES US A LAUGHING STOCK