Demographer Peter McDonald says cutting migration would cause brain drain in regional areas
SLASHING immigration would lead to many Australians being lured to Melbourne and Sydney for high-paying jobs, thus causing population decline in regional areas, says a new report.
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SLASHING immigration would lead to many Australians being lured to Melbourne and Sydney for high-paying jobs, thus causing population decline in regional areas, says a new report.
Prominent demographer Professor Peter McDonald said the nation needed to maintain a significant migrant intake because it faced a “labour supply crunch” over the next decade.
“(It would happen) as large numbers of Baby Boomers retire at the same time as the young cohorts entering the labour force are smaller in number than their predecessors,” his paper said.
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Prof McDonald said the size of Australia’s migration program in recent years had been linked with strong labour demand, and he dismissed calls for cutting the intake to provide “breathing space” so that infrastructure development could catch up with population growth.
“This is flawed logic because if … labour demand remains very strong, at least in the large cities, firms unable to fill that demand from international migration will draw instead upon the rest of Australia and on New Zealand,” he said.
“Wages and opportunities will be higher in Sydney and Melbourne, and the best talent from the rest of Australia will be drawn to these cities … and regional Australia will lose population.”
As revealed by the Herald Sun, the state Coalition has called for a radical shake-up of the immigration system so that the states have equal say with Canberra in assessing migrant applications.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said Victoria must take back control of population growth in Melbourne by diverting more new arrivals to regional areas needing skills and services.
But Prof McDonald’s paper said any redirection would be minor, given the move to megacities in the global economy.
“Such redirection is important in keeping regional Australia viable, but while the Australian economy remains strong, labour demand will be strongest in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and their satellites,” he said.
“Accordingly, most of the growth of population will be in these cities.”