Australia in impact zone for falling Chinese space station

AN out-of-control Chinese space station, the size of a bus, is tumbling in its orbit and could crash into Australia on Sunday.

AN out-of-control Chinese space station could crash into Australia on Sunday.

China’s 8.5 ton Tiangong 1 space station, the size of a bus, stopped responding to control directives in 2016 and is tumbling in its orbit which stretches from Perth to Tasmania.

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Due to its erratic movements, scientists are unable to predict the precise re-entry location until it reaches about 100km in altitude, Australian National University’s Dr Brad Tucker said.

Once it gets to 80km altitude, it will begin a fiery descent which takes just 15-20 minutes before impact — but most components will burn and break up.

Dr Tucker said Australia or the wider region might be exposed to a potential 1000sq km debris field but most of Tiangong 1 (which means Heavenly Palace) would disintegrate on re-entry.

Despite travelling at 27,000km/h,” the biggest surviving fragments will be several kilograms.

“It’s highly unlikely that any of these pieces of the space station are going to land near somebody’s house — you’re more likely to win the lottery multiple times than have any of it get anywhere near you,” Dr Tucker said.

An artist's impression of the Tiangong 1 Space Station in orbit around the Earth. Picture: CNSA

As 70 per cent of the Earth is covered by oceans, it’s also likely remaining shards will not hit land. “You are more likely to be hit by a meteor than this thing,” Dr Tucker said.

Present forecasts predict the station will begin to break up as it re-enters atmosphere anywhere from latitude +43 degrees to -43 degrees, a huge cross-section of the planet, sometime between 1.15pm tomorrow and 12.15pm Monday.

Dr Tucker said about 4.15pm Sunday was the most-likely re-entry time, but a better understanding of location and time would be updated today and tomorrow.

“It was designed to land in the southern Pacific Ocean and it may start to break up over Australia,” he said.

“If you are in an area where you can see it, you’ll enjoy a nice light show just like in the ending of the movie, Gravity.”

Not since the US Skylab fell to Earth over Western Australia in 1979, scattering debris across the Nullarbor, has ­Australia faced a similar ­scenario.