NPL run home: Crucial spots open up

We have analysed how every team’s season could play out after a weekend of unlikely results opened the window in the finals race and relegation battle. Prediction finish:

A win to Dandenong City on the weekend has brought two teams into the relegation battle heading into the final two rounds of the season.

Hume City and St Albans are now in contention of falling into the bottom two if they don’t pick up points in the final two games. Things are certainly heating up at the bottom end of the table.

The finals race looks like it will go down to the final round.

As it stands, the battle for finals spot encaptures five teams including Avondale, Bentleigh, Heidelberg, Dandenong Thunder and Green Gully.

Green Gully and Bentleigh will be challenged by busy fixtures with the Australia Cup and the recent Dockerty Cup which Bentleigh won.

The other teams contending for top six spots include Heidelberg United, Dandenong Thunder and Avondale.

We have analysed every clubs run home with two rounds remaining.

See our predictions and give us yours by VOTING.

RUN HOME:

Predicted ladder at end of season:

1 South Melbourne 62 pts

2 Oakleigh Cannons 57 pts

3 Port Melbourne 56 pts

4 Green Gully 45 pts

5 Heidelberg United 45 pts

6 Dandenong Thunder 41 pts

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7 Bentleigh Green 40 pts

8 Avondale 37 pts

9 Melbourne Knights 30 pts

10 Altona Magic 28 pts

11 St Albans 27 pts

12 Dandenong City 21 pts

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13 Hume City 20 pts

14 Eastern Lions 8 pts

1. SOUTH MELBOURNE

18-2-4 GD: 37 PTS: 56

R25: Dandenong City (H) W

R26: Avondale (A) W

Predicted finish: 1st with 62 points

South Melbourne have been strong at dominating team’s in the bottom half of the ladder this season with plenty of goals led by Harrison Sawyer who tops the competition with 17. Against fellow top four sides however, they have been neck and neck, setting up a thrilling finals series. Could this be South’s year or will it be a step towards glory in years to come.

2. OAKLEIGH CANNONS

16-3-5 GD: 31 PTS: 51

R25: St Albans (A) W

R26: Hume City (H) W

Predicted finish: 2nd with 57 points

Oakleigh Cannons have been consistent with previous seasons in holding a top four spot. Wade Dekker has impressed with 15 goals, the second best in the league. Joseph Knowles has also been a threat up forward with 11 goals. The Cannons have produced some big wins against top sides including 6-2 and 4-1 wins over Avondale and a 3-1 win over Port Melbourne. They are a major contender to go all the way this season.

3. PORT MELBOURNE SHARKS

15-5-4 GD: 19 PTS: 50

R25: Bentleigh (A) W

R26: Melbourne Knights (H) W

Predicted finish: 3rd with 56 points

Port Melbourne Sharks have been able to put the pressure on teams with their high press while their variety of attacking options has been a handy attribute. Chris Duggan has been a warrior this season with 11 goals from 17 matches. They will be one exciting side to look out for in finals.

4. GREEN GULLY

13.3.8 GD: 11 PTS: 42

R25: Eastern Lions (H) W

R26: Dandenong Thunder (A) L

Predicted finish: 4th with 45 points

A stellar 2-1 win over Heidelberg United away from home has given the Cavaliers some breathing room heading into their final three matches of the season. A spot in the finals looks a strong chance with all teams in the run home below them on the ladder. Their depth and fitness may be tested as they play a catch up game and also remain in the Australia Cup competition. One win from their last three matches and they should find a spot in the top four.

5. BENTLEIGH GREENS

11-6-7 GD: 10 PTS: 39

R25: Port Melbourne (H) L

R26: Dandenong City (A) D

Predicted finish: 7th with 40 points

The Greens lost 3-0 in an upset game against Altona Magic on the weekend which has left their finals hopes in jeopardy heading into the final two rounds. Not long ago the Greens were flying after an exciting victory in the Australia Cup and the return of Ajak Riak up forward although the loss against Magic has thrown a spanner in the works that will need fixing. They face a tough two final matches as they face Dandenong City who are fighting to avoid relegation while the Sharks are flying with four wins from their past five matches.

6. HEIDELBERG UNITED

12.3.9 GD: 6 PTS: 39

R25: Avondale (H) W

R26: Eastern Lions (A) W

Predicted finish: 5th with 45 points

Heidelberg United proved that they can challenge the best this season when they beat South Melbourne 2-1 and Oakleigh Cannons 3-2. Kaine Sheppard remains the key to their forward play with the star coming third in the golden boot race with 14.

7. AVONDALE

11-4-9 GD: 9 PTS: 37

R25: Heidelberg United (A) L

R26: South Melbourne (H) L

Predicted finish: 8th with 37 points

Avondale began their season in promising style winning five of the first six games. Since then they have won six, drawn four and lost eight matches. With injuries hurting them in recent times, the depth of their squad will need to stand up in the final two matches to create a special comeback into the top six. This Sunday’s visit to Heidelberg United will hold the key to their hopes of making finals. Win and they will overtake United and jump into the top 6. Lose and they could have a line put through their season.

8. DANDENONG THUNDER

10.5.9 GD: 1 PTS: 35

R25: Hume City (A) W

R26: Green Gully (H) W

Predicted finish: 6th with 41 points

A solid 1-0 win over St Albans on the weekend has given Thunder some hope of finishing in finals this season. With a opportune run home against Hume City this week followed by Green Gully at home, the Thunder could storm into finals with a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude. Hosting Cavaliers in the final round who could have already sewn up a finals spot by then, could given the Thunder the prime chance to pounce on them and get through pending on other results with a win. The Thunder will need results to go their way which is a chance with the run home Bentleigh Greens have got as well as some other sides.

VOTE on who you think will make the finals:

9. MELBOURNE KNIGHTS

9-2-13 GD: -4 PTS: 29

R25: Altona Magic (H) D

R26: Port Melbourne (A) L

Predicted finish: 10th with 30 points

The young Knights will be striving to build its game style and consistency after proving themselves against some of the best teams this season. They have shown that they can match the top teams although they will need to be more consistent which is what they will want in their run home. Gian Albano has been firing this season with 11 goals from 23 appearances, the fourth equal best in the league’s golden boot. The departure of coach Steve Bebic after their round 23 defeat may have an impact either way.

10. ALTONA MAGIC

8-2-14 GD: -13 PTS: 26

R25: Melbourne Knights (A) D

R26: St Albans (H) D

Predicted finish: 9th with 28 points

Altona Magic were in a tough run of form having lost six matches in a row although an upset win over Bentleigh Greens have turned the table. The 3-0 win threw a shock to the competition as Magic pretty much sew up a spot in the competition next season while throwing in a spanner for the race for finals. They face Knights this week in a game that won’t implicate other sides in terms of relegation or promotion. A draw would mathematically guarantee both teams a spot in the competition next season.

11. ST ALBANS SAINTS

6-5-12 GD: -18 PTS: 23

R23: Eastern Lions (H) W

R25: Oakleigh Cannons (H) L

R26: Altona Magic (A) D

Predicted finish: 11th with 27 points

The Saints defeated an in form Avondale 1-0 earlier in the season away from home in what was a shock result to kick start their season. The Saints finished last in the 2021 season which ended early due to Covid so they avoid relegation. Having lost three-straight games, the Saints are in danger of falling into the relegation zone if they are unable to pick up a win or a draw. They currently sit three points clear of Dandenong City and Hume City in 12th and 13th position. Goal difference will also be important for them as relegation spots could come down to it.

12. HUME CITY

5-5-14 GD: -17 PTS: 20

R25: Dandenong Thunder (H) L

R26: Oakleigh Cannons (A) L

Predicted finish: 13th with 20 points

A costly draw to bottom-placed Eastern Lions has made life difficult for Hume City. They will face a side going for a finals spot this week followed by the quality of second-placed Oakleigh Cannons to finish the season. With Dandenong City in a similar boat to them, they will need to try and gather a point this week to give themselves a good chance. It will be a tight finish.

13. DANDENONG CITY

5-5-14 GD: -30 PTS: 20

R25: South Melbourne (A) L

R26: Bentleigh Greens (H) D

Predicted finish: 12th with 21 points

Dandenong City picked up a big 3-1 win over Avondale on the weekend to keep themselves in the hunt of escaping a bottom-two relegation finish. With goal difference out of their favour they will need at least one point and results to go their way to finish out of the bottom two. A point will be vital which will give them a promising chance of remaining in the league next season. It could go right down to the wire. Video below of Dandenong City’s celebrations following their win over Avondale to keep their hopes of remaining in the competition next season alive.

🗣 OLE OLE OLE pic.twitter.com/2yfYHO9F1y

— Dandenong City SC (@DandyCitySC) July 30, 2022

VOTE on who you think will be relegated?

14. EASTERN LIONS

1-5-18 GD: -42 PTS: 8

R25: Green Gully (A) L

R26: Heidelberg United (H) L

Predicted finish: 14th with eight points

A draw with Hume City on the weekend has hurt their chances of remaining in the league next season. The Eastern Lions suffered injuries this year which has left them undermanned. They parted ways with coach Costi Pușcașu midway through the season and will be better for a season in NPL 2 next year where they can rebuild. A point in the remaining three matches of the season could have a huge impact on a side’s race for finals or relegation avoidance.