key match-ups, players to watch and in-depth analysis of the NPL Victoria Grand Final

After a titanic premiership race, Avondale and South Melbourne go head-to-head once more for the NPL Victoria championship. See the key match-ups, players to watch and analysis here.

Ultimate NPL grand final preview.

The decider.

While Avondale outlasted South Melbourne in a titanic premiership race each team claimed one win in the home-and-away campaign.

Sunday’s NPL Victoria grand final at Heidelberg’s Olympic Village will decide once-and-for-all 2023’s best.

The Avengers have a premiership-championship double within reach.

Joint NPL Coach of the Year Zoran Markovski has overseen a team smash the league goalscoring record and claim a history-making premiership.

Hellas is chasing redemption and revenge.

The Victorian football powerhouse is looking to erase last season’s grand final defeat and snatch some silverware to reward what has been a sterling season.

Check out the key match-ups, bench X-factors, and full analysis ahead of the big game.

South Melbourne coach Esteban Quintas. Picture: Josh Chadwick

Avondale coach Zoran Markovski. Picture: Josh Chadwick

KEY MATCH-UPS

KALIDOU KAMARA v AJAK RIAK

If this season is anything to go by, whoever wins this battle finishes with a championship medal around his neck. Riak ran riot in the Round 12 3-0 win, winning the penalty for the opening goal, getting an assist on an Ayden Brice own goal and scoring the third himself. In Avondale’s Round 25 2-1 win, Kamara was arguably best-on-ground winning a series of critical tackles, defensive headers and blocking shots to keep South at bay.

DILLON JAKUPI v MAX MIKKOLA

When South Melbourne scores goals there’s a high likelihood Mikkola has had a hand in it. The Hellas winger can stay wide and provide a pin-point cross and doesn’t mind cutting inside to create an opening for himself either. Also adapt at the long throw, which is handy aiming for the likes of Jake Marshall or Lirim Elmazi. Trying to stop him will be Jakupi, one of the best full-backs in the NPL. He’ll also keep Mikkola honest with an ability to get forward, overlap and create offence for Avondale.

KRISTIAN TRAJCESKI v PAT LANGLOIS

Avondale’s creative force against South Melbourne’s everywhere man. Both players have scored eight goals this season but Trajceski has the edge in terms of assists. Looking to blunt that influence will be Langlois, who doesn’t mind getting forward but also has a more defensive edge to his game. Throw in the likes of George Mells and Marcus Schroen and the midfield battle will be fascinating to watch.

LIAM BOLAND v JAKE MARSHALL

If Liam Boland is passed fit then expect him to lead the line for Avondale and keeping a close on eye him will most likely be Gold Medallist Jake Marshall. Boland was one of the Avengers’ best in the Round 25 win and he’ll be desperate to end his decorated NPL Victoria career with a big performance and championship medal. Marshall, meanwhile, has a league best-and-fairest medal already around his neck and will know keeping Boland quiet will be pivotal to South going one better than last season.

STEF ZINNI v BEN DJIBA

Zinni finished the season as Avondale’s leading scorer but has been kept relatively quiet by Djiba in the two regular season meetings. If the Avengers winger can break the shackles then it will be a massive boost to his club’s championship aspirations. Djiba, a South Melbourne junior, cemented his place in South’s backline last season and has become of the most reliable full-backs in the competition.

Jack Painter-Andrews battles with Dillon Jakupi. Picture: Josh Chadwick

X-FACTOR

GEORGE OTT

Expect the lanky young striker to start on the bench but get an opportunity at some stage. Ott made an appearance in every game, except the preliminary final win over Melbourne Knights, after crossing from St Albans. He saved his best performance for Avondale’s pivotal match against South Melbourne, coming off the bench and providing the assist on both goals. The Avengers will hope he can have a similar impact in the grand final.

LUKA NINKOVIC

The mid-season addition has provided a spark off the bench in his nine games for South Melbourne and scored his only goal for his new club against Avondale in the Round 25 2-1 loss. Has championship-winning experience and could be called on again if Hellas is chasing the game late or if coach Esteban Quintas needs to ramp up the forward pressure to preserve a lead in the dying minutes.

EXPECTED LINE-UPS

While Avondale have been reasonably settled across the season, while South Melbourne has been happy to change things up depending on opposition. The Avengers have deployed a 4-5-1 or a variety thereof with a lone striker. Liam Boland suffered an injury scare in the lead up to the preliminary final and wasn’t risked but expect him to come back in if passed fit to lead the line. Joey Katebian came back into the line-up in the win over Melbourne Knights and impressed, so is expected to hold his spot. Otherwise, the starting line-up of Jakupi, Kamara, Brice and Riccobene across the back and Mells, Trajceski, Zinni, Ahmed and Guy in midfield as been pretty consistent.

In contrast, Esteban Quintas has a more horses-for-courses approach. In the last match against Avondale South played in a 4-4-2 formation, went to a 4-2-3-1 for the match against Heidelberg United back to a 4-4-2 against North Geelong and deployed a 3-4-3 system in the preliminary final win over Oakleigh Cannons. Skipper Brad Norton and forward Andy Brennan didn’t feature in the last game against Avondale but did start against the Cannons as Lirim Elmazi missed having featured in the three games prior.

VERDICT

Honestly, harder to pick than a broken nose.

South Melbourne got, one might argue, the more convincing win – 3-0 at Lakeside Stadium – but Avondale took the more important win – 2-1 at Avengers Park – to all but wrap up the NPL premiership.

How will a neutral venue impact the contest?

It’s the irresistible force – Avondale has scored more goals than any club in top flight history this season.

Against the immovable object – South Melbourne’s dominant defence, lead by Gold Medallist Jake Marshall and Goalkeeper of the Year Javier Lopez.

However, the Avengers have shown their backline is equally stout, conceding just two goals more.

While not on Avondale’s level, Hellas have plenty of goals in them too having put five and four on finalist Port Melbourne, four on Altona Magic and three on the Avengers in their only loss for the year.

Given the sides are so evenly matched a single moment of individual brilliance will decide the championship.

Marcus Schroen and Kristian Trajceski scored superb solo match-winners in the preliminary finals and it will take something similar or maybe even better to beat Lopez or Tom Manos.

Which club has more potential match-winners … AVONDALE 2-1.