Ballarat Council’s plans to accommodate soaring population and diminishing land supply

The City of Ballarat has voted in favour of “one of the most significant” pieces to come before council as the region’s population is predicted to soar.

Ballarat’s population is expected to reach 185,000 in the next two decades.

The City of Ballarat has voted in favour of an urban zoning plan referred to by the mayor as “one of the most significant things that this council will consider for its term”.

The council expects Ballarat’s population to soar to more than 185,000 by 2040, a growth rates of 2.5 per cent requiring the construction of 1450 homes a year.

The forecast is greater than the State Government’s own projection of 1.7 per cent growth, which the latest council meeting agenda said “does not consider the nuances of Ballarat”.

The agenda pointed out the “need to expedite planning for growth areas”, particularly in an 8km radius from the city centre in greenfield areas – those places not already zoned or developed upon – because of population growth and diminishing land supply.

A review into Ballarat’s growth published last year said the town’s established western growth zone would probably run out of developable land by 2024 to 2025 because of “fragmented land ownership patterns”.

The council consequently looked into the possibility of zoning areas for urban growth in the north, west, and north-west.

It estimated the north and west areas together would provide 19,500 homes, and the north-west area 5000 homes.

Data on Ballarat's proposed growth areas.

The northern area would be located in Mount Rowan and Miners Rest, bounded by the Midland Highway and the Western Freeway.

The western zone would comprise part of Bunkers Hill, Lucas, and Smythes Creek, and be partly bounded by the Glenelg Highway.

The suburbs of Lucas and Cardigan would contain the north-west area, to be bordered by the railway, Dowling Road, Cuthberts Road, and Draffins Road.

A council review following community consultation about the proposals said submissions “broadly agreed that there was a need to undertake proper planning to preserve and protect the rural character of Ballarat’s hinterland, heritage and environment”.

The northern growth area.

“Additionally, there was a desire to support the community to maintain liveability and sustain the local economy,” the review said.

“Many respondents seek improved infrastructure, services and facilities that keep pace with the rate of development occurring.

“There were mixed views on the negatives and the positives of growth and the impacts that more urban encroachment and more housing could bring.”

Of the 58 submissions, 17 supported northern growth, and three opposed it.

There were 14 favouring western growth and 11 supporting north-west growth, with no opposing submissions for either.

Nine submissions were generally in support of greenfield development, one requested the consideration of a southern site, two opposed the establishment of the growth areas at all, and one asked for upgrades to telephone services in the west.

The expanded western growth area.

The council estimated the zoned areas would contribute to 20 years of housing supply in Ballarat using the 2.5 per cent growth forecast.

At its February 23 meeting, the council voted to apply to the Planning Minister for northern and expanded western zoning.

The north-west growth area, according to the meeting agenda, will be set aside for when Ballarat’s population stretches past 200,000.

Before the council vote, Ballarat mayor Daniel Moloney called the plans “one of the most significant things that this council will consider for its term” because of their influence over the city’s appearance in the next several decades.

He emphasised the need to ensure infrastructure kept pace with residential expansion.

“It’s fine to open up big new tracts of greenfield land, but we need to make sure there’s all the supporting infrastructure to back that up, whether it be decent roads and public transport, hospitals and health systems, schools, and then all the social and leisure requirements that a growing population wants as well - everything from playground, pools, and libraries, child care centres,” Cr Moloney said.

“I think unfortunately we’ve been in the situation in the past where there’s been a requirement to have a 15-year land supply for residential development, but no necessary commitment from a whole range of different service providers to make sure that the services match that growth.

“The classic example is currently unfolding in the west of the city, where we’ve got places such as Lucas, Alfredton, and Winter Valley growing at the moment, and people are experiencing that in terms of congested streets, people having to do rat runs down suburban streets to get around traffic queues, roads starting to fall apart due to traffic volumes that they’ve never experienced before - that’ll start to manifest more in terms of pressure on schools and the health system as well.

“On the one hand I think it’s fantastic that people want to live in Ballarat: they want to create a whole lot of new business and growth opportunies for us; we just need to make sure we can keep up with the infrastucture as we release new land.”

Cr Moloney said there should be an equal balance between opening up new development sites and building on established ones, in order to provide a wide range of housing supply for new or existing residents.

“There has in the psat been more aspirational aims to have a 50-50 approach to infill development, such as the central area, versus greenfields development.

“I think that the city’s been consistently missing the mark on that front and not getting anywhere near as much infill development as we would otherwise hope.”

The council estimated in its meeting agenda that development was currently split between 30 per cent infill and 70 per cent greenfield.

The population of Ballarat in 2021 was 113,700 people.