National Disability Insurance Scheme data reveals shocking autism diagnosis rate among Australian children

More Australian children than ever are being diagnosed with autism, outstripping comparable countries. Search for details on the NDIS funding and client numbers where you live.

One in every 27 Australian children are being diagnosed with autism, with diagnoses surging 35 per cent in the past four years, outstripping rates in other nations and reigniting debate over what is driving the trend.

Analysis of National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) data shows more than 220,590 children around the country with an autism spectrum disorder diagnosis are receiving financial support.

Current diagnosis rates are higher than in countries such as New Zealand, the United States and Canada which, on latest estimates, range from one in 29 to one in 50.

The total number in Australia is up about 35 per cent from almost 163,000 children in mid-2022. At that time, it equated to about one in 35 Australians aged under 18.

There is ongoing debate over whether autism – a lifelong developmental disability with a wide range of presentations – is being “over-diagnosed” or if the rise reflects better awareness and understanding.

Some experts argue the design of the NDIS, which requires a diagnosis of autism to grant support, has incentivised Australian families to seek official recognition.

But others point to data from before the scheme was operating which showed a similarly high prevalence.

The Kids Research Institute Australia deputy director (research) Andrew Whitehouse said some clinicians had conceded they were confirming diagnoses for children “who might not meet the criteria for autism” in order to help them access support not available elsewhere.

Andrew Whitehouse from the Kids Research Institute Australia says without an autism diagnosis, children can’t access support.

“If you have a diagnosis you’ll receive support. If you don’t, you won’t,” Professor Whitehouse said.

“What that has done is shifted the centre of gravity towards diagnosis.

“That is not the same across the world. The NDIS has really accelerated that across Australia.”

However, La Trobe University’s Dr Nancy Sadka said data from before the NDIS was established found equally high prevalence rates.

The Olga Tennison Autism Research Centre research fellow worked with colleagues to screen 13,500 Victorian babies and toddlers between 2013 and 2018 and found one in 31 were autistic.

“So is it (the rise in diagnosis) because of the NDIS? My answer to that is no because we had those numbers, based on the population, before the NDIS came about,” Dr Sadka said.

La Trobe University expert Dr Nancy Sadka says data predating the NDIS showed similar rates of autism.

She said Australia used more nuanced diagnostic screening tools than other nations and observed children over longer periods.

New Zealand government data shows there were about 23,000 children aged five to 14 with autism in 2023 – or about one in 29.

In the United States the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated prevalence among eight year olds since 2000 – when it was about one in 150.

In 2022 it reached one in 31.

The Canadian Health Survey on Children and Youth estimated one in 50 children aged one to 17 had an autism diagnosis in 2019.

Among five to 11 year olds the rate rose to one in 40.

Federal Disability Minister Mark Butler has announced the Australian government plans to start shifting children with autism from the NDIS to a new $2bn scheme called Thriving Kids.

From July, 2027 – following a 12 month transition period – children with what is deemed to be “mild to moderate” autism will no longer be eligible for NDIS support.

Originally published as National Disability Insurance Scheme data reveals shocking autism diagnosis rate among Australian children