What our future looks like living with coronavirus

Cases and hospitalisations are down, masks are gone and we’re back in the office — so have we farewelled the Covid pandemic for good?

Coronavirus cases and hospitalisations are declining across Victoria, masks are no longer mandatory and we’re back in the office three days a week.

There are even talks to close PCR testing hubs around Melbourne in the coming months.

Life, dare we say it, looks to be returning to normal.

But is it too soon to call the end of the pandemic?

The emergence of a new variant will be evident in the coming weeks. Picture: Christian Gilles.

The next few weeks will be telling, according to Deakin University epidemiology chair

Professor Catherine Bennett.

“If we were to see a new variant, we would have seen one from the Omicron wave, just the way Delta peaked following the Alpha wave,” Prof Bennett said.

“In South Africa, we don’t know where Omicron came from but we know it emerged from the Delta wave and spread so quickly.”

“So if we don’t see any new in the next few months or so, like unprecedented number of infections, then things are looking promising,” she said.

“The reality is, that is a probability game. It’s a bit like bird flu, we’ll be watching it all the time.”

Monash University’s Head of the Epidemiological Modelling Associate Professor James Trauer agreed things were looking up for Melbourne and Victoria.

Access to RAT tests will be important. Picture: Dan Peled.

“Our biggest worry will be coming into winter and seeing how our behaviour changes, and most importantly to see whether a new variant will come along,” he said.

Prof Bennett said now was the time to continue practising habits built over the pandemic to halt the virus spread.

“In Sydney we have seen a slight rise in hospitalisations, and we think that may be linked to being back indoors (because of the rain) so we know these things can have an effect,” she said.

“People choosing to wear masks, even though no longer required under the Public Health Act — that’s helping to keep a lid on things.”

“The more dampening and vaccine coverage we have, then it will take more for us to go back to official control measures (such as lockdowns)— and that’s a good thing.”

Assoc Prof Trauer said many Victorians were either vaccinated and boosted against the virus, or had caught it over summer, which was also helping our immune response.

PCR testing hubs will be closed mid-year. Picture: Nicki Connolly.

“The virus is largely under control, almost all of that is attributable to almost at herd immunity,” he said.

“In saying that, vaccine related immunity won’t be enough to protect us. It will need to be contributed through vaccination and natural infection.”

Assoc Prof Trauer said while it was great to be paring back restrictions — such as work from home and mask mandates — now was the time to implement new response strategies to outbreaks.

“We should be relaxing our restrictions now and focus on preventing vulnerable groups from severe outcomes.”

“If we are planning to close PRC hub testing mid-year, then we must have plans in place to reinstate them quickly if we need to.”

Prof Bennett agreed, saying we cannot become complacent.

“It is going to be important that we tame a level of readiness as we scale back now, as that may need to be dialled up again and we must be prepared for that,” she said.