The restrictions that could be eased from next week
Despite case numbers remaining stubborn, “some significant steps” will be taken next weekend to ease restrictions — and it could mean Melburnians will be able to watch the AFL Grand Final with friends and family. Here’s what controversial rules are about to be scrapped or revised.
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Greater freedoms for Melburnians to see friends and family are likely to be fast-tracked to Sunday even though Victoria has no chance of meeting its case targets.
Outdoor public gatherings of up to 10 people could be allowed and households able to host up to five visitors from another home. There’s even a possibility the controversial 5km travel cap could be scrapped or revised.
But there is unlikely to be any reprieve for shops, cafes and restaurants.
Stubborn coronavirus numbers have quashed hopes of a mass easing of restrictions, forcing Premier Daniel Andrews to overhaul his road map to recovery.
Under the road map, Victoria needed an average of five cases over the previous 14 days to trigger a “step three” relaxation of restrictions. With the average at 9.6 on Sunday, Mr Andrews signalled a revamp with a new step 3.0.
It comes as an expert warned it’s even touch-and-go whether Victoria will reach its case targets by October 28 — the initial trigger date.
Mr Andrews said it was now “mathematically impossible” to reach the case target by Sunday but confirmed some restrictions would ease.
“I don’t think we’re able to get as far and as fast as we hoped but there will be significant changes,” he said.
“I don’t want to do a big laundry list … but everything is on the table.
“A whole lot of outdoor activity is on the table and we will also spend quite a bit of time thinking about what’s a safe group size for people outside to be able to join each other to be part of the things we crave the most. That’s the connections that we’ve been deprived of.”
He also foreshadowed a further easing of restrictions for regional businesses, to be detailed on Sunday.
Asked whether he was ditching the controversial road map, Mr Andrews said he was now essentially announcing a series of mini-steps.
Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien welcomed the move, but said it was proof “the government got it wrong”.
“When Daniel Andrews announced his road map there was no suggestion that it was going to be anything other than we needed to reach those targets in order to get the reductions in restrictions,’’ he said.
“What’s happened now is that real life has proven Daniel Andrews was wrong. Those targets were always unachievable. Victoria shouldn’t be pursuing an elimination strategy, we should be pursuing a suppression strategy as has been successfully done in the rest of the country.”
A Herald Sun analysis of NSW cases revealed that in the first half of July it had a 14-day average of 9.5, rising to 15.9 in the second half of the month.
In the first half of August the figure was 12.4, dropping to 7.4 in the second half and rising again to 8.1 in the first two weeks of September.
In the second half of September it was 2.6 — under five, the target Victoria was set to reach before it could open up.
University of South Australia epidemiologist Adrian Esterman said it would still be touch-and-go whether Melbourne’s 14-day average would drop below five before the October 28 target outlined in the original road map.
Prof Esterman said a new outbreak, similar to the Chadstone cluster, could quickly make the goal unachievable.
“It really depends on what’s happening with these clusters,’’ he said. “If new cases are linked to existing clusters, that is good because it means they can concentrate on stamping them out but if they come from new clusters, that’s when it becomes more difficult. What we can see from the super spreader cluster in Chadstone is that it’s pot luck, really.”
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton appeared to soften his stance on the previous targets.
“We can’t discount that it might be extraordinarily difficult to drive cases down, but I think it’s possible,” he said.
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