NSW cases set to overtake Victoria’s darkest day

NSW should brace for a spike in Covid deaths, a leading expert has warned, as the escalating crisis is on the verge of surpassing Victoria’s darkest day.

The NSW Covid crisis may eclipse Victoria’s darkest day — recorded in 2020 — in the next 48 hours, according to a leading epidemiologist.

It comes as NSW recorded 681 daily cases on Thursday, 44 fewer than Victoria’s record figure of 725 daily cases announced at the peak of our deadly second wave on August 5 last year.

Dr Catherine Bennett from Deakin University said while “nothing is guaranteed”, it was likely that NSW’s daily figure would surpass 725 in the next two to seven days.

“It (cases in NSW) sort of looks like they have accelerated, but that can be deceptive sometimes,” Dr Bennett said.

“Given how numbers have escalated, NSW could be there in the next few days.

“But, if the last two days are just a blip in figures, then NSW would still be on track to get there (surpass 725 daily cases) in seven to 10 days.”

During Victoria’s second wave, the death rate peaked on August 17 when 25 people lost their lives. Picture: Jason Edwards

Dr Bennett warned NSW should brace for Covid-related deaths to increase and flagged a lag time between virus detection and death.

“The deaths announced often lag behind the case numbers,” she said.

“It can take people a while to become ill after an infection, and another week or so before they can become seriously ill.

“People can be in intensive care units for some time as they fight the virus.

“Death can happen quickly among the vulnerable, but it is often around two weeks after the virus is first detected when people succumb to it.

“We have to be prepared for more deaths That is the sad thing — when we finally turn the numbers around, you feel like celebrating but you are still seeing daily death reports.”

During Victoria’s second wave, the death rate peaked on August 17 when 25 people lost their lives — 12 days after our highest day of recorded cases.

The NSW Covid crisis may eclipse Victoria’s darkest day — recorded in 2020 — in the next 48 hours. Picture: Toby Zerna

Our deadliest day came on September 4 when 59 deaths were announced — nine of whom had died on the previous day and another 50 who had died in the days prior.

Dr Bennett said it wasn’t all negative in NSW, as vaccination numbers were promising.

“We don’t know when we are going to see the bend in the curve,” she said.

“It isn’t out of control in NSW, as long as the rate of rise doesn’t change too dramatically, the control is there.”

The leading epidemiologist said Victoria shouldn’t worry about today’s daily jump of cases as most were in isolation before becoming infectious.

“Although there was a big jump in numbers, not to worry about it, the cases are not adding to exposure sites,” she said.

“However we haven’t mapped out the full outbreak, we haven’t got to the edge of it. For the last week we’ve kept having around four mystery cases.

“It is so critical we contain the virus while the numbers are so low.”