How NSW outbreak compares with Victoria’s horror second wave

Victoria’s horror second wave peaked at 700 cases a day, are NSW destined for a similar fate? Here’s how the two outbreaks compare.

Comparisons have been made about the latest NSW outbreak and Victoria’s horrific second wave — but are there really any similarities?

Data journalist Juliette O’Brien, behind independent website covid19data.com.au, said both outbreaks shared rapid growth in daily case numbers.

“We have had an explosion of cases as people have been infecting their family members and other households,” she said.

“One thing that’s obvious about the NSW outbreak is that we don’t have a sharp turn to the curve, we are on a steep trajectory going up.”

“You can see that even if we started to see a bending of the curve, we won’t trickle to zero cases for a couple of months.”

In Victoria’s horrific second wave — which claimed the lives of 819 people — we saw rapid growth in daily case numbers from early July, eventually peaking at 725 new daily cases.

But Ms O’Brien said that’s where the outbreak’s similarities ended.

“The difference is night and day,” she said.

There are some major differences between the latest NSW outbreak and Victoria’s second wave. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images.

The most obvious is that Victoria’s second wave dealt with the Wuhan variant, while NSW is battling the highly contagious Delta variant.

Ms O’Brien said the greater transmissibility of this virus meant in New South Wales, instead of one person getting Covid-19, now everyone in their household (and in some cases, other close contact households) were also contracting it, which explains the quick explosion in daily case numbers.

The time between the index case and the government rolling out restrictions or a lockdown in each state also differed.

Last year in Victoria’s second wave, the index case at Rydges on Swanston was identified on May 27, but restrictions only came into place in Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire 35 days later, on July 1.

While NSW’s index case of the limo driver was identified on 17 June and the first lockdown began nine days later on June 26. Tighter restrictions came into place two weeks later.

It’s clear Victorians were slapped with tougher lockdown rules, however, Ms O’Brien said NSW Health has this year acted far more swiftly.

“There’s always been criticism for NSW for being slow in that regard, but it’s hard to compare with the DHHS approach in Victoria,” she said.

Is Sydney following in the wake of VIC's 2nd wave?🌊

- Increasing daily cases tracking along their curve
- Cases under investigation increasing quickly

BUT 2 key differences:
1. Higher testing
2. Earlier lockdown
(more below👇)#covidnsw#covid19nsw#COVID19Aus#COVID19Vicpic.twitter.com/QBtSyavy45

— Juliette O'Brien (@juliette_io) July 12, 2021

Covid-19 Data shows Victorian health authorities took 35 days to first introduce restrictions during the second wave — and 67 days until stage 4 restrictions were introduced statewide.

Daily testing levels have also come a long way in 12 months in both Victoria and NSW.

Ms O’Brien said daily testing numbers in Victoria’s second wave weren’t a true reflection of Covid-19 in the community.

“If we compare the NSW and Sydney curve with Victoria, the question is do these curves reflect reality?” Ms O’Brien said.

“We (in NSW) are testing more than 40,000 people a day.”

“Even though the curves look similar, Victoria’s testing was really low and they could have had more cases than that curve shows.”

Covid-19 testing Victoria is nowhere near the levels in NSW. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw.

Data from another independent website, Covid Live, shows Victoria’s daily testing numbers on July 1 last year (the first day of Melbourne and Mitchell Shire restrictions) was 20,682.

On the first day of NSW latest lockdown, on June 26, there were 55,227 tests and on July 2, 73,601.

Covid19data.com.au is an independent, volunteer-run data website, using information verified by federal, state and territory health departments.