Experts warn Victorian hospitals to be hit with Covid crisis as cases rise

The Delta wave will push Victoria to hit 1000 Covid cases a day by the end of the month, with hospitals bracing for the worst.

More than 250 Covid-19 ­patients are expected in Melbourne’s intensive care units by October 16 as the hospital system braces for a surge in cases.

The extreme cases are among almost 800 severe Covid patients forecast to need hospital beds as Victoria’s ­active Covid cases climb to 18,000 over the next six weeks, health projections show.

Modelling suggests we are running just six weeks behind where NSW is now and will push up to 1000 positive cases a day by the end of September.

It is understood Victoria’s health chiefs are poised to push for mandatory vaccinations for healthcare workers if Covid cases continue to climb.

Hospital chiefs have unanimously backed the plan and health unions have also supported the move, which would require a directive from the chief health officer similar to that requiring all aged-care workers to be vaccinated against Covid-19.

Although the Burnett Institute is still working on detailed modelling to indicate the timing and scale of the peak of Victoria’s Delta outbreak, ­departmental projections based on the spread through NSW and Victoria are being used to prepare hospitals for the expected surge.

Royal Melbourne Hospital’s Covid nurse unit manager Grace Carroll Carroll is desperate for Victorians to get vaccinated so they don’t need her care. Picture: David Caird

The Herald Sun understands the current Delta outbreak is already significantly worse in terms of seriously ill patients and the impact on the health system than original Department of Health forecasts.

There are 1920 active Covid-19 cases across the state, however, chief health officer Brett Sutton on Wednesday warned they would jump in the coming days.

“We do have significant case numbers in Melbourne and those active numbers will almost double over the next week,” he said.

“The risk will increase in Melbourne, and we need to do our utmost to protect each other here, but to also protect regional Victorians by being hyper vigilant.”

Professor Sutton said while vaccination rates were on the rise, they were still not at a level that would allow freedoms to be thrown open.

It is understood Victoria is six weeks behind the NSW outbreak – meaning Melbourne’s hospitals are bracing to be stretched by mid October, in the same way that Sydney’s hospitals are now struggling.

To safeguard the wider health system, only The Alfred, Royal Melbourne, Box Hill, Northern, University Geelong, Austin and Monash hospitals have so far been designated to receive Covid-19 patients.

Between them, the “streamed” Covid-19 hospitals have 647 ward and 113 ICU beds dedicated for Covid ­patients, though the Western and other hospitals may soon be brought into the system to cope with the rise projected for the coming weeks.

Health chiefs said that by keeping other hospitals free of Covid patients, elective surgery and other treatments could continue throughout the state’s third coronavirus wave.

Although the state bought ventilators and other equipment to allow it to scale up to 4000 ICU beds in a “worst-case” scenario, it would take months to train extra staff to increase ICU beds above 1500.