Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy is keen on promising filly Mallory to claim the third leg of the Princess series while Ray Thomas likes tough mare Montefilia to take out the Kingston Town Stakes.
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The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on the opening day of the Sydney spring carnival with the George Main Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 6, No.4: MALLORY
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.5: KISS THE BRIDE
BEST VALUE
Race 10, No.5: LORD OLYMPUS
RAY’S BEST
Race 9, No.3: MONTEFILIA
NEXT BEST
Race 10, No.12: EQUATION
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.9: SUPER EFFORT
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R1: TAB Highway (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: There is a doubt about Nadaraja starting here but if he does I would be tipping him as he went like a rocket at Scone the other day. But if Nadaraja is withdrawn I am putting Private Agent on top. He has had a year off the scene, three trials since July and a throat operation but he did look very good at the trials and showed promise earlier in his career. Nicci Trix won a trial very impressively and seems to have returned in good order. Leo is a nice type who won a Highway first-up last preparation on a soft 6. After two good trials, he appears ready for this and is one for one under Hugh Bowman. I also like Battleground back at 1000m from the inside draw.
Ray Thomas: If Nadaraja does run here, he is the one to beat. Lightly-raced but promising sprinter with loads of speed, he was so good at Scone last start and will be hard to run down again. I also have Nicci Trix in my numbers. She is a smart mare and romped home in a Port Macquarie trial two weeks ago. Ahead Start is unbeaten first-up and has James McDonald in the saddle so he deserves respect and Leo is another who sprints well fresh.
TAB MARKETS: Leo $11-$9 ($500 @ $9.50, $1,000 @ $9), Nicci Trix $6-$7.50-$7, Private Agent $6-$5 ($400 @ $6, $305 @ $5.50), Nadaraja $2.80-$2.90-$2.70-$2.40 ($1,500 @ $2.90)
R2: Shoot Out Mile (1600m)
Dufficy: I’m a fan of Kiss The Bride. I know the horse hasn’t won for a long time but he has been great at big odds both runs back this campaign. I think he will be right in the finish here. One of the main dangers is Bigboyroy. He is always in the finish but just lacks a turn of speed so maybe the mile will help. New Arrangement has had a month to freshen up since his last start and he is very honest. Charms Star probably needs a drying track but there was too big a push for her when she resumed but the rain was against her that day.
Thomas: I don’t mind Cisco Bay at odds, particularly given he gets his preferred soft track conditions. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race and the 1600m suits him. Bigboyroy is well placed here and should get all the favours from the inside barrier. Kordia hit the line well at Kembla Grange over 1500m last start and should run this trip right out. I’ve also got New Arrangement in my numbers as he is very genuine and is suited here.
TAB MARKETS: Bigboyroy $6.50-$4-$3.90 ($555 @ $4.60, $555 @ $4.20)
R3: Midway Hcp (1600m)
Dufficy: I’m keen on Bowery Breeze. Both runs back have been great, she’s up to a mile, good draw and the jar out of the track are all positives for her. She is also the right price. Big Surprise’s trainer Kristen Buchanan is having an amazing run and she has got this horse racing well after a soft win at Gosford last start. Foxborough likes the Randwick mile and appears out of a strong race last start so I’m happy to give her another chance. Tampering will do his thing up front, he’s a good, tough on-pacer and will run boldly again.
Thomas: Big Surprise has held his form through an extended campaign and went to a new level under Hugh Bowman when he romped home at Gosford. He makes his own luck racing on speed and is the one to beat. Tampering likes to lead or settle on pace, he’s won over this course and distance two starts back and will be very competitive again. Majella is another racing in very good touch and rates highly. Akihiro has drawn awkwardly but does have James McDonald to ride.
TAB MARKETS: Bowery Breeze $10-$7.50 ($240 x $100 e/w @ $9.50/$3.20, $250 e/w @ $8/$2.80)
R4: The Agency Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: This is the hardest race of the day but Super Effort is racing so well. He is flying for the new stable and 1400m doesn’t look a problem so I will lean his way. Tony Be caught my eye first-up and the softer track suits. I just wish it was a mile but I don’t want him slipping under my guard at big odds. Soami is a nice horse heading in the right direction. Elizabeel is fitter for a few runs back and is well placed with the claim.
Thomas: Super Effort is the one to beat. As you pointed out, Ronnie, he is in great form and I think this distance is ideal for him. Soami is another holding his form but the wide barrier is a leveller. Tony Be did run an encouraging race when resuming and he looks an improver. Steel Diamond is racing well but finding it hard to win. She is drawn to get the right run.
TAB MARKETS: Tony Be $23-$13-$12
R5: Bill Ritchie Hcp (1400m)
Dufficy: A toss of the coin between Atishu and Private Eye. I am leaning Atishu’s way as I’m going with Chris Waller’s decision to run her here to try and secure and Epsom slot which tells me he thinks a lot of her. Private Eye does set up beautifully here on the seven-day back-up, the blinkers going on, 1400m and the softer track but I just wish there was a little more speed up front. Harmony Rose is a class mare, the jar out of the track suits and I’m looking for some stable confidence but early market indications suggests she is in good order. Amarelinha might be better for the hitout but she is too good to leave out at double figure odds.
Thomas: I’m with Private Eye. He was doing his best work on the line in the Theo Marks last week when unplaced behind Chat and will appreciate getting to 1400m at Randwick. He’s a promising horse and will be charging to the line. Harmony Rose is protecting an unbeaten first-up record and she also excels on soft surfaces. She has superior tactical speed to Private Eye and will give him something to chase. Aramayo finishing fast for second behind the sensational Zaaki in the Tramway and that form reads well for this race. Atishu is right in this contest, too.
TAB MARKETS: Aramayo $6-$8.50, 5 – Private Eye $4-$5-$4.80 ($500 @ $5, $300 @ $5, $350 @ $4.80), Atishu $8-$4.20 ($300 @ $8, $350 @ $7, $500 @ $5.50, $426 @ $4.60), Harmony Rose $6-$3.70 ($500 @ $5.50, $300 @ $4.40, $600 @ $4)
R6: Tea Rose Stakes (1400m)
Dufficy: The two good runs coming out of the Silver Shadow Stakes and Furious Stakes was definitely Mallory, Ray. From her lovely draw, she looks to settle clear and the 1400m is ideal. Four Moves Ahead did enough second-up with plenty to do in the run and the 1400m should be okay for her. She’s All Class is the query. She had a setback prior to her first-up run and she is a bit of a hothead. This distance is a query but she is too good to dismiss on one run. Latino Blend’s soft trial since nearly causing a huge upset in the Silver Shadow and she could be the new girl on the block.
Thomas: There is not much between these fillies. I’m leaning to Robodira at close to double figure odds. She was very good first-up in the Furious Stakes when she was run down right on the line by Jamaea. Robodira will obviously be fitter for the run and she is a genuine filly. Four Moves Ahead is working her way back to top form and gives the impression she needs 1400m now. Mokolua is still a maiden but is an emerging filly and comes off a very good second behind boom three-year-old Profondo. She is over the odds. I’m giving Najmaty another chance as not much went right for her last start.
TAB MARKETS: She’s All Class $5-$4.60-$4.40 ($500 e/w @ $5/$2, $250 e/w @ $4.80/$1.95), Mallory $7-$4 ($300 e/w @ $6.50/$2.40), Robodira $11-$9-$9.50
R7: George Main Stakes (1600m)
Dufficy: I’m tipping Verry Elleegant given the track is in the soft range but if the track gets to a good 4, I might lean to Hungry Heart. There is not much between these mares but we know Verry Elleegant is a star who was just nudged out when resuming. She has a good draw and this suits better. Hungry Heart ran well first-up, she’s had a trial since and will be hard to beat if the track continues to improve. Think It Over is a terrific warhorse and will run well again. Everyone has dropped off Kolding but he is primed after two good runs and a trial and he gets to the Randwick mile where he excels.
Thomas: Verry Elleegant was outstanding in the Winx Stakes. She was wide without cover the entire race and the winner, Mo’unga, stalked her throughout and only edged ahead near the line. Verry Elleegant enjoys soft tracks and won the Chipping Norton Stakes over this course and distance second-up last preparation. Think It Over has developed into a top class Group 1 horse who simply does not know how to run a bad race. He will be in the finish again. Cascadian is ready now and Hungry Heart is set to run an improved race.
TAB MARKETS: Think It Over $6-$4.40-$4.60 ($500 @ $5, $500 @ $4.40), Verry Elleegant $2.20-$2.10-$2-$2.20-$1.85 ($1,668 @ $2.20, $1,200 @ $2.20, $1,000 @ $2.20 TWICE, $715 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.20 MULTIPLE TIMES, $350 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.15, $1,000 @ $2.10 TWICE, $500 @ $2.10, $1,500 @ $2, $500 @ $1.85), Hungry Heart $11-$14 ($500 x $1,000 e/w @ $13/$2.90)
R8: The Shorts (1100m)
Dufficy: What an outstanding race. I know everything fell into place for Nature Strip when he resumed in the Concorde Stakes but he was at his brilliant best and ran very fast time. The X-factor horse is the Queenslander Rothfire. His trials and trackwork have been amazing and he is a potential star. Masked Crusader’s was fantastic winning first-up at Caulfield with a big weight. Lost And Running is in the big league now and we will find out a lot about him in this race but his trial have been brilliant. It is embarrassing leaving out Gytrash and Eduardo.
Thomas: There will be plenty of pressure in this race and it could set up nicely for Masked Crusader. He came of age in the autumn winning the William Reid Stakes and finishing an unlucky second to Nature Strip in the TJ Smith Stakes before resuming with a stunning last-to-first effort at Caulfield carrying a big weight. Extremely talented sprinter with a powerful finish. Nature Strip was superb in the Concorde and if he gets any sort of control up front, he just might prove too brilliant again. Lost And Running has been trialling brilliantly and he appears ready for this challenge. Eduardo is classy, genuine and tough. Then there is Gytrash and Rothfire – this is some race!
TAB MARKETS: Nature Strip $2.30-$2.40-$2.30 ($1,000 @ $2.40, $600 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.40 MULTIPLE TIMES, $700 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30), Eduardo $7-$8.50-$8, Gytrash $14-$9 ($250 e/w @ $9/$2.10), Rothfire $7-$8-$5.50-$5-$4.80-$5.50 ($300 @ $8, $500 @ $6.50, $400 @ $5.50, $5,000 @ $5, $500 @ $5, $300 e/w @ $5/$1.60, $500 @ $4.80)
R9: Kingston Town Stakes (2000m)
Dufficy: This is another great. I’m with Montefilia, who ran a lovely race first-up when third in the Chelmsford Stakes. She has grown up, matured and at her second run last preparation she was placed behind Mo’unga in the Rosehill Guineas so we know she reacts second-up at 2000m. She’s Ideel is the danger. She’s a good staying mare, loves the track and distance and is primed with her lightweight. Spirit Ridge should get across from his awkward draw without too much worry as there is not a lot of speed horses here. He will be hard to beat. Best Of Days should attract some attention. I know he doesn’t win often but his runs in two Group 2 races in Melbourne have been good and the last time he was at 2000m he ran second in the Australian Cup.
Thomas: Montefilia ran a blinder first-up when finishing strongly for third to Think It Over in the Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago. She is looking for at least 2000m these days and I like the fact she is drawn out a bit as she needs galloping room. She’s Ideel has been improved by two runs from a spell and is out to her right distance range now. Smart Ridge is a classy stayer and who has won his only two starts over the Randwick 2000m. The underrated Laure Me In is racing in good form.
TAB MARKETS: Montefilia $4.60-$5-$4.40 ($300 @ $5), Best Of Days $11-$13 ($1,000 @ $13), She’s Ideel $4.60-$3.40-$3-$3.20-$3.40 ($500 x $400 e/w @ $4.60/$1.85, $350 x $355 e/w @ $4.20/$1.75, $689 @ $3.90, $1,500 @ $3.60, $310 @ $3.40)
R10: Heineken Hcp (1100m)
Dufficy: This is an amazing race as far as trial horses are concerned and none more so than Lord Olympus. His winning trials have been very good, he maps well from the draw and he’s at big odds around $10. Exoboom will probably find the 1100m too short but he is a promising horse and he could catch them napping late here. Equation has had no trial going in but he has a great record and the market has gravitated to him which suggested he is in order. Valaquenta looked good in a recent trial since winning well last start.
Thomas: I’m going with Equation on suspicion. He’s a progressive sprinter aiming for his fifth consecutive win. He is resuming without a trial but is highly regarded by the stable and the booking of James McDonald is significant. The speedy Marway will be in this for a long way and I also expect Exoboom to be charging home. The Face has plenty of ability and will sprint well fresh.
TAB MARKETS: Marway $8-$6, Equation $6-$3.90-$3.70 ($600 @ $5.50)
CAULFIELD
R8: Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m desperate for the first emergency I’m Thunderstruck to get a run. I think he is a very, very good horse and could well be a Golden Eagle chance. Even from the wide barrier I want to be with him if he gets a run. Beau Rossa is well weighted and is in good form. Behemoth loves the track and distance. Amish Boy doesn’t win often but certainly deserves respect down in the weights.
Thomas: Probabeel is a top mare and she was super returning with a barnstorming win over 1200m at Caulfield carrying 60kg. She is a Group 1 winner over the 1400m course, her second-up record is outstanding, and from barrier two she should get the right run. Behemoth also excels this course and distance, he’s drawn well and is the main danger. Beau Rossa has been mixing it with Behemoth and Sierra Sue is an each way chance.
TAB MARKETS: Behemoth $7-$5.50, Probabeel $5-$4.80 ($700 @ $5, $500 @ $5 MULTIPLE TIMES, $450 @ $5, $400 @ $5, $300 e/w @ $5/$2), Sierra Sue $15-$11-$12-$9.50 ($350 @ $12, $300 @ $12, $300 @ $11), I’m Thunderstuck $10-$8
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 3, No.1: JERLE
His dam, Shannara, is a stakeswinnng sister to Lonhro. Jerle is ‘only a Gosford maiden winner in 11 starts but was runner-up to Doubtland in the Kindergarten.
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.10: ARTHUR FRANCIS
Last start winner at Wyong; we won’t be seeing this horse at the provincials after today if he runs like that again.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.4: BACKSTREETS
Grey debutante from the James Cummings stable who did more than enough in the last trial to entertain on debut despite the alley.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,13
Race 6: 5,8
Race 7: 1,2,7,11
Race 8: 10
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Reece Jones could win today’s TAB Jockeys Challenge by the length of the straight but only if his book remains intact that is.
WAGGA
BEST BET
Race 3, No.1: LAWYER’S DELIGHT
Won’t have to have improved much on that sterling debut second at Goulburn 19-days ago. In very good hands.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.5: BOHO CHICK
Found herself in the perfect race and with the perfect draw to remain unbeaten at Wagga.
BOWRAVILLE
BEST BET
Race 7, No.2: OLD TIMING MAN
Been to Bowraville twice before today heading back home to Grafton with a win and a third. Big win at Grafton two weeks ago.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.1: DEEMFUL
Put the writing on the wall that a first win was imminent when he finished third at Grafton. This track should suit him better.
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