SuperCoach Plus Article: The stats that matter ahead of Round 4
The best POD captaincy picks, the trade you really should make and more – all exclusively for SuperCoach Plus subscribers.
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With three rounds done and prices on the move it has never been more important to delve behind the headline statistics and understand the story behind the numbers.
Former champion Wilfred Zee and never-been champion Rob Sutherland talk captaincy, trades, money makers and tips for the risk takers.
1. THERE ARE SOME LEGITIMATE OPTIONS TO CAPTAIN TEDDY!
SC Plus ‘Coaches Choice’ shows that heading into Rd 4 Roosters fullback James Tedesco (32.8%) is almost three times more popular than the next nearest captaincy choice Nathan Cleary (12.6%) and a little under five times more popular than his elite fullback rival Ryan Papenhuyzen (5.9%).
There’s a fair reason for that, Teddy is rocking a 115.7PPG average and in his ‘bad’ game last week he still managed to score 74 points. Add to that, the fact that Tedesco’s average at the SCG is 89.25 and you have some rock solid statistical reasons to stick with the herd and captain Teddy.
But there are question marks too. Tedesco is playing with an untested halves combination in Sam Walker and Drew Hutchison this week. He’s also playing a Warriors team that has restricted opposition fullbacks to 64 points (AJ Brimson/Titans/Rd 1), 47 points (Tex Hoy/Knights/Rd 2) and 37 points (Charnze Nicoll/Klokstad/Raiders/Rd 3) in the opening three rounds.
So what of the contenders?
Penrith halfback Nathan Cleary isn’t travelling too poorly himself with 95.5PPG over the opening two matches (he missed Rd3 due to concussion symptoms). And his matchup is very much a ‘plus’ one, with the undefeated Panthers coming up against a Manly outfit leaking an average of 37 points per match. And Cleary’s formline against Manly is not too shabby, with seven games for an average of 77PPG. One of those games was significantly injury affected and if you remove that game Cleary averages 87PPG against the Sea Eagles.
And Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen? Well he just loves playing the Broncos. Yes, it’s a small sample size; Paps has only played the Broncos twice, and one of those games was a 45 minute stint of the bench back in 2019, but he still scored 96 points in that one and when given the full 80 minutes in Rd 11 2020 he went even better scoring 122 points. I’ll save you the simple division – that’s an average of 109PPG against the Broncos. And the Storm will be smarting after losing two games on the trot. I’m expecting an avalanche of points in this game, all by the men in purple and Ryan Papenhuyzen is certain to be in the thick of it.
If you like Papenhuyzen then you have to consider the Storm’s central playmaker Cameron Munster (more on him below) with a POD-like 3.2% captaincy rate. And if you think Munster is going well, how about Cody Walker. The South Sydney sniper has a 78PPG average after three rounds; rounds that included games against two of the game’s staunchest defensive units in the Storm (82 points) and Roosters (95 points). Walker and his red-hot Rabbitohs play the Bulldogs on Friday, the same Bulldogs that have conceded 32 points, 28 points and 24 points so far this season. It’s hard to see a scenario where South Sydney don’t score 30+ in this game and when South Sydney score points there’s a fair bet that Walker is in the thick of it; which makes his 2.5% captaincy rate criminally low.
2. WHY MUNSTER IS SET TO EXPLODE
Much focus at the five eighth position this year has been on Walker – and his 78PPG average – for good reason; however, Munster has been slowly bubbling along without much fanfare. Munster has been so good for so long that a three-game average of 72 is just ‘par for the course’; however, he has done that while scoring one try, breaking the line three times, assisting one other line break and contributing to one try. That’s an average of ‘just’ 19.7 points per game in attacking stats, which shows that his base and base attack (which for a half should include forced drop outs, in my opinion) is sitting above 50 per game – a typically high floor from Munster. The Storm have some very tasty match-ups on the horizon over the next five weeks and it’s a fair bet that Munster will pile on some attacking stats soon.
3. IS SCHUSTER A ‘SCHU-IN’ THIS WEEK?
There was plenty of Josh Schuster hype all through the pre-season but the Manly playmaker missed selection in round one and when he did get on the field in round two it was to play out of position in the second row. Schuster played near enough the entire game on an edge in round two and then the full 80 in round three and it is fair to say he has handled himself far better than expected in a role that isn’t his usual position. Schuster scored 90 points for a losing team in round three, setting up a try (with an accompanying line break assist) and breaking the line twice himself. His workrate (averaging 44PPG in base) is impressive for a half playing on an edge, and given his skillset you definitely got some strong ‘Wade Graham’ type vibes from Schuster. With a massive negative break even (more on that below), Schuster is one of the easier trade-ins this week if you can fit him into the five-eighth spot.
4. DANE GAGAI IS SEEING A LOT OF BALL
Last week I wrote about the left attacking edge of the Rabbitohs, with much of the focus being on Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston. Dane Gagai definitely isn’t the forgotten man, as the amount of ball going down that edge has seen Gagai’s involvement increase. His talent and ability has never been in question, but at times, his willingness to look for the ball has been. With so much ball going down the left side though, the ball is coming to Gagai which is fantastic for KFC SuperCoach purposes (as well as for the Rabbitohs). His base and base attack so far across three rounds sits at 49 points per game – a huge floor. For those who can’t quite find space or money for Cody Walker or Latrell Mitchell, Gagai might be your solution to still cashing in on South Sydney’s left ‘money’ edge.
5. SPEAKING OF MONEY …
SC Plus forecasts that these are the players predicted to rise, and fall, in value after this round:
6. NIKORIMA IS ON FIRE
If I had told you in the pre-season that Kodi Nikorima would be the highest scoring halfback AND five-eighth after three rounds, I’m sure the majority of KFC SuperCoaches would have laughed at me (aside from the Warriors faithful out there). Yet there he is, albeit probably due to Nathan Cleary missing Round 3, but he’s still there! Kodi has always had elements of his game that really suited SuperCoach scoring – his elusive running game, his ability to put his teammates into holes for line breaks and tries – but his base stats have always been low. The pre-season injury to Chanel Harris-Tevita (and subsequent in-game injury) has meant Kodi has been goalkicking, and he looks to have that job indefinitely with Harris-Tevita out long term having missed just one attempt from 11 so far this season. Don’t expect too many 130+ scores however with his previous highest score being 110.
7. JAMAYNE ISAAKO IS STILL WORTH CONSIDERING
It’s safe to say that many KFC SuperCoaches had written off Isaako and many of the other Broncos players, but would you believe that two of the top six CTW options are currently Broncos backs? Isaako is #2 currently, behind just Brett Morris, while Xavier Coates sits #6 overall – they have averaged 78.7 and 66.7 points per game respectively! Coates has scored five tries in three games, but Isaako has managed his average with just one try, one try assist, two try contributions, three line breaks and two line break assists. His goalkicking has been a nice boost to his floor, but his involvement is healthy as well. His upcoming run is horrible though, which is a big deterrent, but perhaps a name to consider later this year.
8. FERGO IS … BACK?
As the #3 CTW option so far this season, with an average of 69.3 points per game, it is sure looking promising so far! Those who started with Blake Ferguson would be stoked at his output so far, with him already scoring three tries and setting up another – effectively overtaking his attacking input for the entire 2020 season already. This is all while the Eels attack looks quite clumsy still, and you feel that it will only improve. Fergo continues to average a very healthy 43 points per game in base and base attack stats, which probably is lower than expected due to the wild weather last week making it harder to gain ground (he had a much higher than usual rate of runs under eight metres) which could easily have seen him score higher in base. In any case, Fergo is still a great price and the Eels have an enticing run coming up as well.
9. THE KNIGHTS HAVE A LOT OF KFC SUPERCOACH RELEVANCE
The multitude of KFC SuperCoaches trading in or starting the season with the likes of Jayden Brailey, Mitch Barnett, Connor Watson, David Klemmer, Daniel Saifiti and even Tyson Frizell seriously backs up this statement, but what we learned this week is that they all score well at the same time. For the attacking players, Kalyn Ponga’s imminent return is both exciting but also a downside, as Barnett may end up losing the goalkicking – though he could benefit greatly from Ponga’s ballplaying down his favoured left edge. It’s likely that many of us will continue to have Knights players all year long.
10. VAL HOLMES JUST GOT A LOT MORE INTERESTING
It wasn’t great for those who took the punt on Holmes in round one to see him named on the wing, and not goalkicking. Things improved in round two with Holmes rotating through fullback in attack and goalkicking. But it was ahead of round three that things got really interesting for Holmes non-owners, with him named to start at fullback and apparently set to stay there while Michael Morgan is out of action (which is possibly indefinitely). For KFC SuperCoach NRL purposes, it’s clear that Holmes’s best position is as a goalkicking fullback; and despite how bad the Cowboys looked at times, Val could be their sole attacking outlet and as we see with the teams like the Sea Eagles, that sole attacking outlet can be extremely KFC SuperCoach relevant, no matter how bad the team is going!
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Originally published as SuperCoach Plus Article: The stats that matter ahead of Round 4
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