KFC SuperCoach teams analysis: Doubts over boom buy Mitch Barnett

Last week delivered a host of ugly injuries but perhaps the most telling for KFC SuperCoach is one we barely know about, writes TOM SANGSTER.

WINNERS

* Mitch Barnett – One of last week’s most popular buys. Named for the Knights but in doubt with a calf injury and will be given until Saturday to prove his fitness.

* Nathan Cleary – Returns after a week out due to concussion. Huge inclusion for 52 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches.

* Ryan Papenhuyzen – Another massive inclusion following a neck injury last week. Coming off a bumper opening fortnight of 124 and 73.

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* Payne Haas – Once the most popular prop in KFC SuperCoach during the pre-season, Haas returns this week after a three-week disciplinary suspension. Talk out of the Broncos suggests his minutes will drop from 72 last year to around the 60 mark. But he actually scored better for KFC SuperCoach the last time he played those type of minutes and he’s therefore my POD of the week at two per cent ownership, even against the Storm.

* Ryan Matterson – Missed last week due to concussion, but the star backrower has been named and is on track to play on Easter Monday.

Mitchell Barnett is struggling with a calf injury (Photo by Tony Feder/Getty Images)

* Josh Schuster – By far the most popular purchase this week. Retains a starting back row spot and has great job security for at least a few weeks given the injury crisis at the Sea Eagles, which includes edge backrowers Haumole Olakau’atu (elbow, round five), Curtis Sironen (knee, round six) and Andrew Davey (knee, season). With a break even of -62, KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts a price rise of +$81.2k. Only available at five-eighth, which is a touch problematic. A lot of KFC SuperCoaches are trading Matt Moylan, Jacob Liddle, Lachlan Lam or Luke Keary for Schuster – and it’s hard to argue with any of these trades.

* Sam Walker – Injuries to Luke Keary (ACL, season) and Lachlan Lam (knee, 4-6 weeks) mean Walker’s highly-anticipated debut has been accelerated. Already owned by 30 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches and the fourth most purchased player this round.

* Ryan James – Popular cheapie named for the Raiders despite failing to finish due to concussion last week.

* Spencer Leniu – Big boost for 22 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches with the top bargain set to be named despite a leg injury last week.

* Sean O’Sullivan – Watchlist cheapie for next week after scoring 70 points on the weekend. Job security is great given the man he replaced Chanel Harris-Tavita is out for three months.

LOSERS

* Luke Keary (ACL, season), Ben Hunt (broken leg, round 7-9), Lachlan Lam (knee, round nine), Michael Morgan (shoulder, facing retirement), Bradman Best (elbow, indefinite) – All among the most sold players this week due to long-term injuries.

SEA EAGLES

Team news: A surprising lack of changes for the last-placed side. Just the one alteration with Morgan Boyle joining the bench in place of Toafofoa Sipley. It’s all about Josh Schuster in KFC SuperCoach land, with the young gun the most purchased player of the round after a stunning two weeks. Tom Trbojevic (hamstring) is at least another week away.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Despite starting near bottom dollar, Jason Saab lost $15K this week and is on thin ice at Sangster’s Paradise. Tommy Turbo could be back as early as next week and he’s desperately needed to spark Manly. His presence could lead to a dramatic increase in attacking output at the Sea Eagles and hopefully Saab is a beneficiary. Hold for now. See Josh Schuster analysis above.

PANTHERS

Team news: As predicted in Early Mail, Penrith have switched star centre Stephen Crichton to fullback to cover for injured custodian Dylan Edwards, while Matt Burton has retained a place in the starting side. With Edwards to miss the next few weeks with a broken hand, Crichton slots in at the back. Burton, who impressed at five-eighth in the win over Melbourne last week, replaces Crichton at left centre. Nathan Cleary returns at halfback after missing last week due to concussion.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kurt Capewell is the fifth most purchased player after scoring the matchwinning try for the Panthers. He’s not Isaah Yeo circa 2020 but still a very handy 2RF available at CTW. He played 80 minutes last week for the first time in 2021, although that was probably injury-affected given the injury to Dylan Edwards. 60-65 minutes looks like the norm and I’m happy with that. After struggling in the first two weeks, Charlie Staines scored a try against the toughest defence in comp last week for 56 points. He still lost money, but surely he gets over against the Sea Eagles this week. See Nathan Cleary and Spencer Leniu analysis above.

BULLDOGS

Team news: Big changes for the underperforming side. Important KFC SuperCoach news with Jake Averillo punted from the five-eighth spot and Lachlan Lewis coming in. Jeremy Marshall-King (foot) is out for 6-8 weeks and replaced at hooker by Sione Katoa. Nick Meaney moves to fullback in a straight swap with Corey Allan, who switches to the wing. Josh Jackson (suspension) relinquishes the lock position to Renouf Atoni. Jackson Topine and Dean Britt join the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jake Averillo lost almost $40K last week, vindicating those who sold. He’s an extremely talented player and will no doubt emerge as a KFC SuperCoach factor at some stage, particularly after the price drop. Watchlist. Bulldogs have scored only 16 points in three games – the worst of any team. However, one shining light is … drum roll … Adam Elliot at 1.1 per cent. But I’m stealing Rob’s thunder here so will leave it to him to explain in his Thursday members only Q&A.

RABBITOHS

Team news: Come off a good win over rivals the Roosters with no injuries, just some bumps and bruises. Wayne Bennett has named the same 17. Liam Knight (concussion) has been ruled out indefinitely.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Cody Walker went big last week against his favourite club, which of all clubs is the freakin Roosters. He notched the all-time KFC SuperCoach record against them last year and went large again last week with 95. Damien Cook came back to pack with 40 odd last week despite the drubbing of Roosters. He currently sits fifth at hooker almost 100 points off the pace, a fair gap given the massive price tag.

STORM

Team news: Welcome back star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (neck) with Nicho Hynes back to the extended bench. Tom Eisenhuth (ribs) has been named despite a painful injury last week. Chris Lewis is on standby to come into the starting side. Big news for KFC SuperCoach with Reimis Smith retained after Brenko Lee (hamstring) had his return delayed due to Brisbane’s COVID Lockdown. Smith (ankle) and Jahrome Hughes (leg) both picked up minor injuries but should be fit to play. Dale Finucane (calf) and Harry Grant (knee) are still a week or two away.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Christian Welch hasn’t quite come off for Sangster’s Paradise and I’m therefore selling to Payne Haas. While the minutes have gone up from 43 per game to 50, the PPM has come down from 1.2 to 1.08. So we are essentially left with the same output as last season and not the borderline keeper we were hoping for. Ryan Papenhuyzen is a huge captaincy option this week against the Broncos.

BRONCOS

Team news: Three big inclusions with the returns of middle men Payne Haas (suspension), Matt Lodge (hamstring) and John Asiata (shoulder/neck). Lodge and Haas start in the front row, relegating Tevita Pangai and Thomas Flegler to the bench. Pangai’s move to the bench is particularly interesting for KFC SuperCoach given he has scored the most points at FRF and third most at 2RF. Rhys Kennedy, Thomas Dearden and Ethan Bullemor drop out of the side.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: So, um, yeah, I probably got it wrong on David Mead. He scored a $60,000 price rise following his 64 on the weekend, which included a massive base of 33 points in runs. KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts another $160,000 in the next few weeks so well done to those who got on. Tesi Niu is going along nicely following a $62,700 rise, but is risky for your 17 this week against the Storm. Jamayne Isaako has slipped under the radar as one of buys of the year so far. He scored a massive +$83.9k rise after 114 on the weekend, but is owned by under 10 per cent. See Payne Haas musings above.

SHARKS

Team news: Wade Graham and Will Kennedy have been named despite concussions last week. Teig Wilton starts in the back row for Briton Nikora (suspension) and could emerge as a cheapie down the track.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Matt Moylan is the fourth most sold player as KFC SuperCoaches chase Schuster, Walker, Keary, Nikorima or Watson. Moylan certainly hasn’t been bad – in fact he’s made $25,000 – but the other buys are simply too hard to ignore. Sangster’s Paradise will have keen eyes on highly-rated young gun Teig Wilton this week as a potential cheapie for next week.

COWBOYS

Team news: Cheapie alert with Rob Sutherland’s man Ben Condon named to start in the back row. He is yet to play a game this year so keep an eye on him as a cheapie in two weeks. Coach Todd Payten has made mass changes with Jake Clifford, Esan Marsters and Mitchell Dunn dropped. Ben Hampton and Scott Drinkwater form a new-look halves combination. The Cowboys continue without Michael Morgan due to a shoulder injury which could force him to retire. Reuben Cotter (concussion) is out with Josh McGuire switching to lock.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: The Cowboys are an absolute shambles with new coach Todd Payten failing to strike a blow and their best two players in Michael Morgan and Jason Taumalolo injured. But crises bring opportunity and pre-season cheapie Ben Condon gets his chance in the starting back row. He looms as a serious option in a fortnight, but definitely take a look this week.

TITANS

Team news: Tino Fa’asuamaleui started at prop last week with Tyrone Peachey moved to lock and Moeiki Fotuaika the bench and the Titans have repeated that move this week. Brain Kelly is on the extended bench and could be a late inclusion.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Fifita is coming off two tons and therefore the second most purchased player this week. Fifita is often criticised in fantasy land for lacking base stats, but his pure base of 44 in 2021 is sensational for an edge backrower (and that includes a game where he literally emerged from a hospital bed to play). Add to that the fact tackle busts are basically base stats for Fifita and you’re looking at a top five 2RF at the very least in a position not quite as stacked as the glory days of Paul Gallen and Corey Parker. On a completely random sidenote, David is one of four players with the surname Fifita in the NRL this year — basically the new Smith.

RAIDERS

Team news: The Raiders were hammered by injuries last week and it’s a different team this week. Hudson Young (knee) was a late out last week but has been named this week. Joseph Tapine (ankle) is out which sees Ryan Sutton start at lock. Dunamis Lui is recalled and will start at prop. Curtis Scott (ribs) is out with Sebastian Kris (who failed his HIA last week) in at centre. In a big win for SuperCoaches Ryan James (HIA) has recovered and been named on the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Popular cheapie Bailey Simonsson made $20K over the last week – not exactly what we were looking for but not the worst given he hasn’t scored a try. A meaty will come soon on the end of a star-studded backline, but he’s a risk in 17s. See Ryan James analysis above.

KNIGHTS

Team news: Bradman Best (elbow) is out for an extended period which sees Gehamat Shibasaki start at centre this week after Dom Young was called up to cover Best last week. Star To’a was a late withdrawal last week but he has been named this week. Mitch Barnett (calf) has been named and will be given to Saturday to prove his fitness. If you have him in your team then name him on the bench as it’s easier to move a ‘reserve’ than a starter. Blake Green is a big inclusion, the five-eighth named to start from the interchange bench. Green’s inclusion might be good news for Connor Watson who I expect to start with Sue held back as an interchange middle.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: We’ve talked up Connor Watson and Jayden Brailey for a while so we won’t harp on, but both are popular again this week as 7th and 9th most purchased respectively. Both are basically in the must-have category for those who don’t already own them, so get on. Bradman Best is the sixth most sold player following a long-term elbow injury. See Mitch Barnett analysis above. He will be given until Saturday to prove his fitness. Be sure to pick him as a reserve (not in starting side) allowing an easy switch if ruled out to any Knight, Dragon, Rooster, Warrior, Eel or Tiger.

DRAGONS

Team news: Ben Hunt (leg) is set to miss 4-6 weeks with his spot at halfback filled by Adam Clune. Jack Bird (suspended) is out, replaced by Braden Wiliame. Max Feagai and Eddie Blacker come in to the reserves.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: The Dragons are in fifth place on the ladder and I’ve got the screen shot safely saved on my phone, because it may not get better than this. Ben Hunt is the third most sold after suffering a broken leg. There are some serious replacements on offer including Cleary, Walker, Schuster, Brailey and Watson. Sangster’s Paradise are impressed with Tyrrel Fuimaono in actual NRL but he just doesn’t have the work rate for KFC SuperCoach at 0.81 PPM.

Ben Hunt played through a broken leg.

ROOSTERS

Team news: Carnage galore at the Roosters with both of last week’s starting halves out through knee injuries. Keary’s absence opens the door for Sam Walker to make his debut while Lam’s absence sees Drew Hutchison come in at five-eighth. Victor Radley was a late withdrawal from the bench last week but is named to start at lock. Lindsay Collins (HIA/ankle) is another who is missing from the side that played last week with his spot as starting prop taken by Issac Liu. Daniel Suluka-Fifita (suspended) is replaced on the bench by Matt Ikuvalu. Nat Butcher was a late withdrawal last week but is named on the interchange to face the Warriors.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: James Tedesco still scored 74 in a well-beaten side last week and obviously upped his involvement when the injuries hit. There are obvious concerns at the Roosters given the issues for Keary, Lam, Collins, Fifita etc. But Teddy averages 89.25 at the SCG and it would take a brave KFC SuperCoach to gamble against him as captain in what’s expected to be glorious autumn conditions. See Sam Walker analysis above.

WARRIORS

Team news: Peta Hiku (knee) is out, replaced at centre by Marcelo Montoya. Montoya’s elevation from the reserves opens the door for Rocco Berry to come onto the extended bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kodi Nikorima is the sixth most purchased player, which makes little sense to me given the great bargain buys on offer like Walker, Schuster and Watson. Niko scored 134 last week and is kicking goals with CHT out, but the 34 the week before is worrying, while the $521,800 price tag is very hefty compared to the great cheapie options. Avoid.

WESTS TIGERS

Team news: No changes for a winning 17 at the Tigers.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Daine Laurie is the most popular player in KFC SuperCoach for good reason. He’s averaging 60 without a try and looms as a hold for most of the season. He rose by +$76.1k last week with another +$57.3k projected this week. Jacob Liddle is the second most sold player despite a BE of 4. The maths tells you it’s too early to sell, but the numbers and opportunities rarely line up perfectly in KFC SuperCoach and Schuster is basically a must.

EELS

Team news: Ryan Matterson is back and named to start which pushed Isaiah Papali’i to the interchange. Halfback Mitchell Moses has recovered (HIA) after playing just 26 minutes last week and been named to start. Keegan Hipgrave slides to the reserves where he is joined by Bryce Cartwright who has recovered from a broken jaw.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jeez, if Sangster’s Paradise knew Matto would be back this week we wouldn’t have sold. In any case, the BE of 131 should see him dip to very affordable levels in coming weeks.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach teams analysis: Doubts over boom buy Mitch Barnett