Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the big races at Rosehill and Flemington on Saturday.
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MELBOURNE raider Azkadellia is posed to end Ghisoni’s unbeaten run in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
This is the opinion of Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy who believes Azkadellia can avenge her luckless third in the Myer Classic last spring and finally claim that her first major.
Dufficy and The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas discuss all the big-race chances on the opening day of the Golden Slipper Festival at Rosehill and the Newmarket Handicap-Australian Cup meeting at Flemington.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
R2: PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I have Mount Panorama on top as he has had no luck in his three starts so far. His third in the Silver Slipper behind Astern was an exceptional effort. If he begins well, he has drawn the right gate to get a soft run and should prove very hard to beat. Souchez was three-wide facing the breeze at Randwick and did really well to run third behind Good Standing in the Skyline Stakes. His inside draw is a huge boost to his chances here. Lionhearted raced up on the speed at Randwick and fought on really well for second, finishing ahead of Souchez. However, Lionhearted is going to have to do a bit of work from his wide draw. Mediterranean is a nice horse on the improve.
Dufficy: I have very similar thoughts to you — I am also really keen on Mount Panorama. I think he is a really good horse and his race record so far doesn’t do him justice. He has had two wet track runs where nothing went right for him, then the other day he was out the back in a slowly run race that turned into a sprint home. I thought it was an outstanding performance by this colt to get up and run third. From a better draw and with an aggressive jockey in Brett Prebble, provided Mount Panorama begins cleanly and holds hits position, then this race is over. I think he will win and could go onto the Golden Slipper next week with a good chance. Souchez did endure a tough run last start but it will be a different story from barrier one. He is the danger. Lionhearted is a well-bred improver but has that awkward draw to overcome. The best of the rest is Attention.
TAB market movers: Souchez $4.60-$4.20 with a $1,000 wager at $4.40, Mount Panorama $4.40-$4-$4.20-$3.80 after bets of $400 at $4.40, $400 at $4, $1,000 at $4.20, Lionhearted $4.80-$4.60 with a $1,000 wager at $4.80.
R3: MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I’m giving Calliope another chance. She just didn’t get around Caulfield first-up last month then was primed for the Reisling Stakes when she had a mishap at the barrier and was a late scratching. The danger is Prompt Response. She has drawn the rails which is also a definite advantage and she’ll give them something to chase. Of the others I give the underrated Faraway Town a good each-way chance, her form has held up all season, and Omei Sword was very impressive on debut.
Dufficy: I am a Prompt Response fan. I was taken by her recent trial where they gave her a dig in the last 50m and she extended through the line like a really good filly. Calliope was backed as if unbeatable last week and by all reports she has had a good tune-up for this and is the danger. I’ve got a very close eye on Larapineta. She has looked all quality at her trials and is a very smart filly in the making. Omei Sword might turn out to be the best horse to come out of this race.
TAB market movers: Twist Tops $16-$13 after bets of $256 e/w at $16/$4.33, $500 e/w at $15/$4.11, Omei Sword $8-$7 with a $370 bet at $7, Surrenders firm at $21 despite a $1,000 e/w wager at $21/$5.44, Larapineta $21-$14 after bets of $500 e/w at $21/$5.44, $500 e/w at $17/$4.55.
R6: PHAR LAP STAKES (1500m)
Thomas: I’m keen on Old North. I’ve liked this horse from the day he won at Randwick on New Year’s Day. He then had two months off before returning with a brilliant Warwick Farm win last week when he rounded them up with ease on a track that didn’t really suit him. Old North is going to appreciate getting out to 1500m and the bigger Rosehill track. I feel he is one of the better bets on the day. Tatoosh wasn’t suited first-up at Wyong but he did show considerable promise during the spring with a hat-trick of second placings at Group 3 level. He is over the odds here. Sacred Eye was ridden upside down at Flemington and is definitely worth another chance. Believe is unbeaten in two starts and is a progressive filly.
Dufficy: Old North looks a very, very good horse to me. I loved the way he knuckled down and won first-up at Warwick Farm, The only thing stopping me from declaring him a certainty in this race is the lack of speed. The tempo is the only thing against him but the positive is that he is on a bigger track here. Torgersen is a very promising type but nothing has gone right for him in two runs back from a spell. Sacred Eye wasn’t used to leading last time and can improve while Hattori Hanzo appears a smart type and I’m not ruling him out.
TAB market movers: Old North $3.20-$2.80 with bets of $455 at $3.20, $1,500 at $3, Sacred Eye $5.50-$5.
LISTEN TO THE SUPERRACING PODCAST PREVIEW FOR ROSEHILL
R7: COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500m)
Thomas: I don’t think it is a cliche to say you can make a case for all 13 runners in this race. I am with Ghisoni even though I know there is so much against her. The way she won the Surround Stakes first-up after a setback, with such authority and almost arrogance, tells me she could be the real deal. It is a big ask to jump into the Group 1 cauldron after just three starts but she is a big, strong filly and has only 50kg on her back. Solicit is in great form, breaking a track record at Randwick last start after stretching Winx prior to that run. Azkadellia profiles well for third-up after a spell and she is a top class mare. Peeping, like Solicit, is a risk at 1500m but her two runs back have been very good. I’ve left out Lucia Valentina, Politeness, Amicus and others but it is that sort of race.
Dufficy: Terrific race but I do like Azkadellia. Melbourne mares have a good record in this race and her whole preparation has been centred on Sydney. I can’t get out of my mind her run in the Myer Classic during the spring when she should have absolutely bolted in. She is an underrated mare who will be very hard to beat. I am Ghisoni’s biggest fan. I know she lacks a bit of experience against these tough-nut mares but what puts the breaks on for me is the price — it is an over-reaction for a filly coming into this grade but I do respect her ability. I can’t believe the odds for Lucia Valentina. She is such a quality mare with a great first-up record. She will be there somewhere and at big odds, I am giving Zanbagh a real chance too.
TAB market movers: Lucia Valentina $21-$15 with bets of $250 e/w at $21/$5.84, $500 e/w at $17/$4.87, $500 e/w at $15/$4.39, Politeness $11 unchanged after a $300 wager at $11, Azkadellia $6-$4.80 with bets of $300 at $6 (multiple times) and $200 at $6 (multiple times) and $400 at $5.50, $2,100 at $2.09 place, Ghisoni $4.20-$4.40.
R8: AJAX STAKES (1500m)
Thomas: Another very open race but the barrier draw has swayed me to Generalife. He should have just about won the Liverpool City Cup at Randwick last start but had no luck on the day. He loves Rosehill and is drawn to get the right run. He is ready now after two runs from a spell. Rock Sturdy ran a blinder in that race, as did Good Project and It’s Somewhat but that pair have drawn right off the track.
Dufficy: Nearly an impossible race with so many coming off good or unlucky runs in the Liverpool City Cup. I am worried about the tempo here as there is no obvious leader despite the big field. I am going wide with Kool Kompany. He was ridden back in the field last start but hit the line well when resuming. In Europe he was a leader. He is a hidden talent and if there is any change of riding tactics then I want to be on him. I know it is silly to select a horse first-up after a Melbourne Cup campaign but Excess Knowledge looks to have come up enormous. They are the two I’m singling out because of the price angle but I do respect Generalife and Good Project.
TAB market movers: Generalife $4.60 unchanged with bets of $500 at $4.60, $400 e/w at $4.60/$1.90, Rock Sturdy $7-$6.50 with a $500 bet at $7, Kool Kompany $13-$12 with a $2,000 e/w wager at $13/$4.
FLEMINGTON
R6: NEWMARKET HANDICAP (1200m)
Thomas: I appreciate this is a handicap and the likes of Japonisme and Delectation meet Chautauqua so much better at the weights but how good was the big grey horse in the Lightning Stakes? Chautauqua never looked like he was in the race until he unleashed that amazing finishing surge in the last 100m. He is world class. Japonisme is the weight horse of the race and he does excel at Flemington along the straight course, as does his stablemates Delectation and Counterattack. Chautauqua to beat the Chris Waller-trained trio.
Dufficy: I’ve said it before and I will say it again but as a punter I don’t want to bet in Flemington straight races as there are too many variables. The way I see it, if they come down the inside, then Counterattrack is the horse to beat. If they come down the outside then it’s Chautauqua. Counterattack did enough first-up and has trialled well since. He has only 50kg and has a big-race jockey in Glen Boss to ride. Chautauqua’s form speaks for itself.
TAB market movers: Chautauqua $2.40-$2.45 ($3,000 @ $2.40, 1,300 @ $2.40, $1,000 @ $2.40 MULTIPLE TIMES), Japonisme $4.40-$4 ($642 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.40).
R7: AUSTRALIAN CUP (2000m)
Thomas: Bow Creek showed tremendous acceleration to win at Caulfield last start. He has always given the impression he has Group 1 ability and is the horse to beat. In a race where there is not a lot of early speed, Bow Creek’s superior turn of foot will be an advantage. Rising Romance and Preferment are proven Group 1 horses over the Flemington 2000m course. Rising Romance has produced very good closings sectionals at her first two runs back and Preferment’s first-up fourth in the Chipping Norton Stakes behind Winx was a super run.
Dufficy: I have a slight leaning to Bow Creek. I like what I see with him although the tempo of this race does worry me a little as he can be slow away but he is the one to beat. I have enormous respect for Preferment and his first-up run was excellent. He won the Turnbull Stakes over the Flemington 2000m course in the spring. I have a weather watch on Our Ivanhowe. If the track gets to slow or worse then he comes right into calculations after an unlucky first-up run.
TAB market movers: Bow Creek $3.20-$2.90 ($3,000 @ $3.20, $32,000 @ $3.05 averaged out), Our Ivanhowe $5-$5.50 ($400 @ $5), Suavito $9-$9.50-$8.50 ($460 x $230 @ $8.50/$2.53)
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
BEST BET
Race 5, No. 4 ANGELS BEACH
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No. 2 MOUNT PANORAMA
Race 4, No. 3 WORD OF MOUTH
Race 6, No. 5 OLD NORTH
TAB MARKET MOVERS
ROSEHILL
Race 4: Slow Pace $8.50-$6.50 with bets of $1,000 at $8, $1,000 at $7, Word Of Mouth $9-$6 with bets of $350 at $9, $225 at $8, $200 at $7, $200 at $6.
Race 5: Bachman $6-$6.50 after a $2,000 bet at $6.50, Alberto Magic $4.20-$2.60 after bets of $400 at $4.20, $500 at $4, $400 at $3.60, $1,200 at $3.20, $2,000 at $3, $3,190 at $2.90, $4,000 at $2.80.
FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Concealer $6-$3.80 ($600 @ $5.50), So Serene $9 unchanged ($1,000 @ $9)
Race 2: Jackson $9 unchanged ($1,000 @ $9), Revolving Door $3.80-$3.70 ($2,000 @ $3.70), Hot Dipped $4.40 unchanged ($1,000 @ $4.40)
Race 3: Brockhoff $4.20-$4, Super Cash $7-$5 ($600 @ $7, $400 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $6)
Race 4: Stratum Star $3-$2.70 ($750 @ $3, $1,000 @ $2.80 TWICE, $500 @ $2.80), The United States $4-$4.20
Race 5: Don’t Doubt Mamma $6-$4.60 ($1,500 x $1,000 @ $4.80/$1.95)
Race 8: Miss Rose De Lago $5.50-$3.40 ($2,000 x $4,000 @ $5.50/$2.05, $600 @ $4.20, $375 @ $4), Mossbeat $17-$11
Race 9: Yesterday’s Songs $4.80-$4.40 ($300 @ $4.80, $200 @ $4.40)
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