The Championships 2016: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big races on day one of The Championships at Randwick.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big races on day one of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday.

R4: COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)

Thomas: Clearly Innocent and Lofty’s Menu have been the favourites for the Final since the first weekend of qualifiers. Cleary Innocent has drawn an inside gate and there is speculation it could work against him but I just feel if he gets any galloping room from the turn his superior acceleration will sweep him to victory. Pera Pera does everything right in his races, he settles up on the speed where he can make his own luck and he is just a winner. Bank On Henry is the best outsider and Lofty’s Menu is in great form and hard to beat.

Dufficy: I can see where you are coming from as Clearly Innocent is obviously a very talented horse but I’m terrified of barrier two, which will become barrier one unless the fourth emergency gets a run. The two times he has been beaten in his career has been when he started from gates one and three. Clearly Innocent is a big-striding horse and needs to get to the outside as he likes to wind into his work. So, I’m swinging to Lofty’s Menu at the better odds. He is a very good five-year-old with a fantastic record and the soft track will suit him. I won’t be surprised if Clearly Innocent blows them away but a lot has to go right for him. I also feel Pera Pera is going to run well. He is a good, tough on-pacer.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Clearly Innocent $1.90-$2.40 ($10,000 @ $2.30, $4,000 @ $2.40), Lofty’s Menu $6-$4.60-$4.20, All Summer Long $11-$9.50 ($2,000 @ $9.50)

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis: Who will go forward and who be charging home?

SPEED: Hot. Profiler, Heza Thief, Mitchell Road come across from out wide with Pera Pera handy but not leading. RUN-ONS: If Clearly Innocent gets a crack at them, look out. Lofty’s Menu is the only one that can go with him.

R5: P.J. BELL STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: In a race of many chances, I like Egyptian Symbol. Her form is terrific including her second behind the very smart Southern Legend last start. I’ve got her on top from the underrated Denmagic who comes out of the same race as Egyptian Symbol where she was a neck away in third place. Perignon is all class and Lady Sniper was impressive winning the Gosford Guineas.

Dufficy: I am putting my Victorian hat on here and picking Super Cash. I thought she was very good winning down the straight at Flemington last start, she has good gate speed to get across and find a positions, and she has form around Petits Filous. Her main danger Secret Agenda towelled up Tempt Me Not by three lengths down the straight at Flemington during the spring on a soft track. She was brilliant that day and her trainer Mick Price thought enough of her to run her in the Newmarket. I have the two Victorian fillies fighting this race out from Perignon and Egyptian Symbol.

Perignon, right, is in good form but has drawn wide on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Perignon $7-$8.50, Egyptian Symbol $7-$4.00 ($500 @ $7, $1,200 @ $6, $2,500 @ $4.80, $1,750 @ $4.40, $2,460 @ $4.20), Denmagic $10-$8-$8.50

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Genuine. Secret Agenda punches through to hold lead. RUN-ONS: Tempt Me Not and Perignon down the outside, Egyptian Symbol and Lady Sniper through the middle and watch Dawnie Perfect.

R6: ATC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES (1400m)

Thomas: Telperion and Yankee Rose both ran blinders in the Golden Slipper and they look the horses to beat in the Sires. Telperion was obviously the unlucky runner in the Golden Slipper with his fourth placing. He’s a big, strong colt and gives the impression the Randwick 1400m will really suit him. Yankee Rose is a diminutive filly but she ran a sensational race to run second in the Slipper behind Capitalist. Detective was very good in the VRC Sires and he should run well. I’m not ruling out Good Standing, Seaburge and Faraway Town either.

Dufficy: I can’t get away from Telperion. I thought he was outstanding in the Golden Slipper where he raced in blinkers for the first time. James McDonald goes back on board and I think he is the one to beat. Omei Sword has the makings of an outstanding filly — whether that is a two or three-year-old I don’t know — but her talent will take her a long way here. Yankee Rose was incredible in the Slipper but it was a tough run and I am inclined to think she might be better in the Champagne Stakes. I also rate Detective as the best longshot in the race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Telperion $3.80 unchanged, Seaburge $8 unchanged ($1,000 e/w @ $8/$2.47, $400 @ $8), Yankee Rose $4.60-$3.50 ($1,000 @ $4.20, $1,400 @ $3.80, $1,000 @ $3.70, $800 @ $3.70)

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Moderate. Detective handy with Attention on his back. RUN-ONS: Omei Sword and Telperion get sweet runs in transit but might have to use the inferior section. Yankee Rose, Chimborra, Seaburge down the outside.

Yankee Rose ran a blinder in the Golden Slipper. Picture: Jenny Evans

R7: ATC AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)

Thomas: It all points to Tarzino. He was outstanding in the Victoria Derby so we know he excels at the classic distance, and he goes to Randwick after a dominant Rosehill Guineas win. He is clearly on top for mine. The big unknown here is Tally. How good is he? I thought his Alister Clark Stakes win was very, very good and he has a “picket fence” next to his name. Vanbrugh was good in the Rosehill Guineas and we know Jameka is a very strong staying filly. Tarzino looks to have a clear edge here but if he is to be beaten then Tally is his main rival.

Dufficy: Tarzino is clearly the superior colt. He was just too good for them in the Rosehill Guineas where Craig Newitt rode him like the best horse in the race. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed so Newitt needs to produce another confident ride and position Tarzino in the first six in the running and he should be too good. Vanbrugh has had the perfect preparation for the Derby, typical Chris Waller campaign with the horse peaking for the Derby. Jameka’s greatest asset is her racing style and that will take her a long way in this race. If there is to be an upset then Sovereign Nation could be the one as his Guineas fourth was a solid effort.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tarzino $2-$1.90 ($2,280 @ $2, $2,000 @ $2, $4,000 @ $1.90, $2,000 @ $1.90), Tally $6-$7-$6.50, Jameka $7-$6.50

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Moderate. Jameka comes across with Tally stalking and What’s The Story handy. RUN-ONS: Tarzino might not be that far back but he’s the one with the big finish.

R8: T.J. SMITH STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Chautauqua produced an incredible effort to win the T.J. Smith Stakes last year and his form since has been extremely consistent at the highest level. He was stunning first-up in the Lightning Stakes and then brave under a big weight in the Newmarket. Exosphere is back to Randwick and around a bend. Last time he raced in Sydney was at this track on Epsom Day and how good was he in the Roman Consul Stakes. He’s a super colt and he will make this an exciting contest. Terravista and Fell Swoop the other hopes.

Dufficy: I’m red-hot on Exosphere. I’m comfortable with him back around a bend, and back to Randwick where he was simply brilliant in the Roman Consul last spring. I loved his recent trial win and the jar out of the track suits him. He has this real “X-factor” about him and I have him as my bet of the day. I’m not belittling Chautauqua who is the reigning champion and a terrific sprinter. I would say he is going even better this year than before he won last year’s race. I also agree Terravista can improve out of sight here and English has been sensational this preparation but she is running into a hot field of sprinters today.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chautauqua $3.40 unchanged ($500 @ $3.40), Exosphere $2.70 unchanged ($8,400 @ $2.70, $2,000 @ $2.70 TWICE), English $11-$9

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Our Boy Malachi and Flamberge lead with Dothraki and Fell Swoop in behind them. RUN-ONS: Exosphere up the guts and Chautauqua down the outside.

Exosphere will be hard to beat in the TJ Smith Stakes. Picture: Mark Evans

R9: DONCASTER MILE (1600m)

Thomas: You have to admire the connections of Winx for taking up the challenge and giving her the chance to contest the Doncaster Mile. This might be her last chance to contest a major handicap and really we are talking about a mare who is the nation’s premier racehorse, her form is impeccable, and I feel she is actually quite well weighted even with 56.5kg. Barring bad luck she wins. Bow Creek is a great chance. He’s got a brilliant sprint and the talent to make a race of it with the mighty mare. The best lightweights are clearly Happy Clapper, the Villiers winner who has been set for this race, and Azkadellia. Winx — can she be beaten?

Dufficy: Ray, I was thinking Kermadec but I kept going back over Winx’s form and this is one special mare. I don’t like her odds but she does amazing things in her races, a mighty mare and it is about time we sat up and took notice of what she is doing. Winx on top. I think the bet in the race is Kermadec each way. His two runs back have been outstanding. He gave Winx a big start in the Ryder and ran his race between the 600m and the 100m. He is back to a soft Randwick where we know he excels and his four starts at the Randwick mile have resulted in two wins and two seconds. The other chances are Azkadellia, the softer the track the better for her, and Happy Clapper, but I’d prefer a firm track for him.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kermadec $6.50-$7.50-$8, Winx $1.85-$1.80 ($10,000 @ $1.85, $4,000 @ $1.80), Turn Me Loose $26 unchanged ($1,000 @ $26), Volkstok ‘n’ Barrell $26-$23, Azkadellia $13-$10-$9 ($400 e/w @ $13/$3.28), He Or She $26-$23

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Genuine. Turn Me Loose, Vergara, Ecuador battle for the lead. Volkstock’n’barrell gets a nice cart three-wide with cover with Winx on his back. RUN-ONS: Kermadec and Bow Creek up the inside, Azkadellia, Happy Clapper down the outside but Winx is the one with the big finish.

R10: ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: I like Bulla Baby each way. She is still a maiden but her dam (Bulla Borghese) was a Victoria Oaks winner and the further this filly goes the better she will be. The dangers, and there are plenty of them, include Alaskan Rose, Sacred Eye and Daisy’s Joy.

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Alittle Loose at the odds. She is a lightly raced filly in the very astute Mick Kent stable. Her first-up run at Moonee Valley on a frontrunner’s track where she came from well back was a beauty. Alaskan Rose is hitting form at the right time and 2000m suits. I also like Bulla Baby. I expected a better price for a maiden but she has a good chances, and Sacred Eye is the class filly of the race. I could back Alittle Loose and Alaskan Rose.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sacred Eye $6-$5, Bulla Baby $9.50-$7.50

NIC ASHMAN’S race analysis

SPEED: Genuine. Sacred Eye with a host of them coming across from wide gates. RUN-ONS: Rainbow Park and Daisy’s Joy look to get the right runs.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 8, No. 14: EXOSPHERE

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No. 1: TARZINO

VALUE BETS

Race 2, No. 1: ODYSSEY MOON

Race 10, No. 6: ALITTLE LOOSE

TAB MARKET MOVERS

RANDWICK

Race 1: Astern $1.90-$2.50, El Divino $3.80-$2.60 ($350 @ $3.80, $300 @ $3.50, $600 @ $3.20)

Race 2: Odyssey Moon $8-$4.40 ($700 @ $8, $350 @ $7), Data Point $6-$3.80 ($400 @ $6, $500 @ $5, $600 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.20)

Race 3: Libran $2.30-$2.10 ($4,000 @ $2.30)

Originally published as The Championships 2016: Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy