Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Roshill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Roshill on Saturday.

R4: SCHWEPPES HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Don’t Doubt Marley is working up to her best form. She ran an eye-catcher last start at Warwick Farm when she charged home for second to Sahara Chills. She has had little luck in her two runs prior to that and looks well placed here with 53kg. Flamboyant Lass has good fresh form and is effective on wet tracks, Frill Seeking has been improved by two runs from a spell and is ready to strike top form.

SPORTSMAN: ROSEHILL PREVIEW

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

Dufficy: The toughest race of the day but we agree almost to the letter. I have been backing Don’t Doubt Marley in her recent races and she has just had no luck in any of her Sydney starts. She gets herself in trouble with her racing pattern of settling back and having to circle fields, often striking trouble. But I like her in this smaller field and with blinkers on for the first time. Flamboyant Lass would have a lap on these if she was right but I haven’t been totally convinced by her two trials. Frill Seeking is ready to go now after two runs back from a spell, she has needed those runs. Wine Tales could do something if she put her best forward.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Flamboyant Lass $5-$4.60 ($$500 @ $5)

R5: TAB.COM.AU HCP (1350m)

Thomas: Vanderkemp is a young horse with upside. At Canterbury last start he ran second to Yuma Desert, closing fast on the winner after the filly pinched a break rounding the home turn. Yuma Desert has since won at Randwick to frank the form. Classic Uniform was very game last start. He had a month between runs before his third at Rosehill two weeks ago and is fitter now. The wetter the better for him.

Dufficy: I know he is back in distance but I like Classic Uniform. His run last start was incredible considering how hard they went in front. He is coming from a heavy 1500m to a drier 1350m but he does have gate speed and I’m confident he can be ridden aggressively and prove hard to get past. Vanderkemp is on the improve and the Yuma Desert form does look good. I have a query on Lanciato. He has a big finish and although this is short of his best distance I’m sure Mark Newnham will have him ready to run well as this is his first Sydney Saturday runner.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Vanderkemp $6.50-$6 ($400 @ $6.50)

R6: RANVET HCP (1350m)

Thomas: This looks the right race for Disgraceful. His two runs this preparation have been terrific. He charged home first-up for second to Painte at Rosehill then he was unlucky when a close second to Bullrush at Randiwck. The Bullrush form is very good and Disgraceful gets his chance here as he is suited by his home track, distance and rain-affected conditions. Better Not Blue has been freshened for this race and he saves his best for wet tracks, Gambler’s Blues is racing well and Grande Punto is in-from and a good wet-tracker.

Dufficy: I agree. I know Disgraceful hasn’t won for a while but I’m confident he has returned better than ever. His two runs have been great and this looks a lovely race for him. Better Not Blue is the danger. The month between runs is good for him as he likes his races spaced. He will be running on well. Avonaco is ready to step up to this distance and Ziggy Willie has good second-up statistics.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Disgraceful $4.80-$4.40 ($300 @ $4.80)

Disgraceful has returned in excellent form. Picture: Jenny Evans

R7: MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HCP (1500m)

Thomas: I have gone wide here with Surfin’ Safari. He has been placed in only one of his eight starts this season but he showed ability last winter on wet tracks, beating a subsequent Group 1 winner in Vanbrugh. After four runs back form a spell he peaks here off a very good effort when closing late for sixth to So Willie. I know this is harder race but he will drop to about 51kg after the claim and worth a gamble at $11. Magical Stance is the horse to beat. He was excellent when resuming, his form second-up is very good, and he gets in well with the claim. Ammirata is the forgotten runner.

Dufficy: Magical Stance is one of my bets of the day. I thought he was terrific first-up over an unsuitable distance and he only has to reproduce that effort to be right in the finish. I think this is his race to lose. The danger is Invinzabeel on the quick back-up after a luckless run at Canterbury last Monday. Ryker hasn’t won in a while but finds himself fin a suitable race here and Kellyville Flyer is very honest and comes off a good last start win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Magical Stance $6-$4.20 ($750 @ $6)

R8: HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP (1800m)

Thomas: I thought the run of Thurston when resuming at Randwick was very good. He got out the back and almost lost touch with the pack before finishing strongly between runners for sixth to Bullrush. He was only beaten two lengths in a strong form race and wasn’t fully tested. I think he is over the odds at $14. Santa Rocks was dominant in midweek mares grade last start but she drops a lot in weight here and will give another good account of herself. Vassal is on the quick back-up and drops to 1800m, but he is rock-hard fit and racing well. Consign is an improver at value odds.

Dufficy: I can see where you are coming from, it was a very good run from Thurston at Randwick, but he is still first emergency. I like his stablemate Vassal. I know he was a beaten favourite last week but the stop-start tempo of that race didn’t suit him. This race looks to have a more genuine speed and that will suit him. Santa Rocks toyed with her rivals last start and she will be up on the speed throughout. Scherzoso is the best of the rest, a nice horse well placed here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Piamimi $16-$15-$12, Thurston $16-$13

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill.

R9: TAB MORE THAN JUST WINNING HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Elemenohpee has returned in great form. He ran fast time when resuming at Hawkesbury then had no problems with the soft 7 conditions at Canterbury last start again winning with ease. I know this is a step up in grade again but he is a horse on the rise, he gets in on the limit and will go close. Painte is racing in great heart, he excels on wet tracks and is the one of the main chances, Powerline is racing well and Lord Leofric has ability and sprints well fresh.

Dufficy: One of the trickiest races of the day. I have come back to the consistency of Painte. He is a very honest horse and although coming back in distance, he is an on-pacer. He is the horse to beat. Powerline maps well here and has Hugh Bowman on. Crooked Blaze looked in amazing order at Scone and he can improve here although he doesn’t want any rain. Freeze The Charges could be a dramatic improver with the sting out of the ground and at huge odds. I’ve got no knock on Elemenohpee and a big watch on Lord Leofric.

DUFF’S SUGGEST BETS

BEST BETS

Race 2, No. 2: LOOPHOLE

Race 7, No. 12; MAGICAL STANCE

BEST VALUE

Race 1, No. 4: COGLIERE

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy