Crosscourt: FIBA break gradings for every NBL team and predicted finish
Think the Sydney Kings have back-to-back NBL titles stitched up? Not quite. The champs are streets ahead, but a number of challengers can emerge from the pack. Vote here.
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The NBL championship trophy will head back to the Harbour City for a second straight season unless a serious contender can stand up and knock the Sydney Kings off their perch.
Six weeks into NBL23, the league-leading Kings are clear favourites with several rival teams combusting around them.
Pre-season picks Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have all struggled, prompting the first two clubs to release imports.
Melbourne United could follow a similar path, given two of the club’s imports – Jordan Caroline and Rayjon Tucker — have had underwhelming starts.
The New Zealand Breakers and Cairns Taipans have been surprise packets to date, but do they have the staying power to be legitimate contenders?
Then there is the South East Melbourne Phoenix, who can beat anyone on their day, but their biggest issue is consistency, as shown in their big loss to cross-town rivals United in round 6.
It leaves the Kings – even with the absence of injured talisman Xavier Cooks for up to a month – well placed to become the eighth NBL team in the league’s 43 years to claim consecutive titles.
The Crosscourt column takes a close look at how all 10 teams have performed so far this season and predicts how the standings will finish come February.
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1. SYDNEY KINGS (7-2)
Grade: A-
Pro: Offensively killing it with Xavier Cooks (third in the league in efficiency rating) taking over from MVP Jaylen Adams as the leader of the Kings’ attack. Import guard Derrick Walton Jr has also been a find as a floor general who is one of the league’s best passers.
Con: Cooks is hurt and they’re throwing away points at the free throw line. Cooks (46) and Shaun Bruce (40) among the worst in the league, shooting less than 50 per cent.
Key stat: Ranked No.1 in ppg with 93.2.
Prediction: Team to beat. Minor premiers.
2. NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (6-3)
Grade: B+
Pro: The Breakers possess impressive scoring depth, with Barry Brown Jr, Jarrell Brantley, Izayah Le’Afa and Derek Pardon all averaging over 10 points.
Con: The Breakers have the league’s second-worst three-point percentage (.319) and must improve that number to have any chance in the finals.
Key stat: Small forward Barry Brown Jr is second in the league in points per game (21.33) and second in two-point shots made per game.
Prediction: Third, which would be a remarkable achievement following two difficult seasons on the road due to Covid.
3. CAIRNS TAIPANS (5-3)
Grade: B+
Pro: Keanu Pinder has gone from the NBL’s most improved player to arguably the league’s best big man while import forward DJ Hogg has been a revelation, averaging 1.38 blocks a game (second in the league).
Con: Third-worst in the league in turnovers (14.6), only behind Adelaide (15.9) and Brisbane (17.5).
Key stat: Pinder leads the league in rebounds (10), offensive rebounds (3.63) while he is second in defensive rebounds (6.38).
Prediction: Fourth – and once they make the finals, anything could happen.
4. SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (5-4)
Grade: B+
Pro: When everyone’s available, they might be the most potent team in the NBL outside of Sydney.
Con: Health. The problem for the Phoenix is they can’t get everyone firing on all cylinders at the same time.
Key stat: Won four in a row with full roster but Kell, Broekhoff, Qi and Browne have missed 15 games between them.
Prediction: Second. Get healthy + Mitch Creek and they’re the Kings’ nearest challenger.
5. TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (5-5)
Grade: B
Pro: Playing the JackJumper way again, exceeding expectations after their shock grand final appearance in their debut season.
Con: Can they keep it up? Haven’t beaten anyone above them on the ladder.
Key stat: Conceding the second-fewest points in the league at 80 per game.
Prediction: Eighth. Need too many big scalps to make finals.
6. MELBOURNE UNITED (5-5)
Grade: C
Pro: Sitting .500 despite a wretched start to the season when key piece Ariel Hukporti blew out his knee.
Con: Outside of Xavier Rathan-Mayes, the imports haven’t worked. Rayjon Tucker must figure it out and they need a centre to replace Jordan Caroline.
Key stat: Had a 50-point turnaround in two days when they lost to Cairns by 25 and then beat SEM by 25. Shows resilience in the group.
Prediction: Fifth – if (when?) they get a gun import.
7. PERTH WILDCATS (4-5)
Grade: C-
Pro: Still have the NBL’s best player in Bryce Cotton, who leads the league in scoring at 21.44 points per game.
Con: He’s a first-year pro, but need Brady Manek to produce something closer to what John Mooney did out of college.
Key stat: Worst rebounding team in the NBL at 31.7 per game. Have lost the rebound count in all nine games. 187cm Cotton (5rpg) averaging more boards than 207cm Brady Manek (3.9) and 203cm Tashawn Thomas (4.6).
Prediction: Seventh. Will miss the finals for the second-straight year.
8. ADELAIDE 36ERS (3-4)
Grade: D-
Pro: Another chance to kickstart the cultural reset promised in the off-season with the Sixers parting ways with problem child Craig Randall II.
Con: After so much promise, haven’t been able to stop anyone and fought internal problems that curtailed high hopes.
Key stat: Worst defensive team in the league, conceding 91.6ppg.
Prediction: Sixth. Will be so much better with the ball in Mitch McCarron’s hands and Sunday Dech bulldogging opposing wings. No one wants them in a play-in game.
9. BRISBANE (3-5)
Grade: C-
Pro: The Bullets have the talent to save their season if they can stay consistent and discover momentum. Nathan Sobey, Aron Baynes, Jason Cadee and Tyler Johnson are all proven winners.
Con: Third last in the league for points per game (83), which isn’t good enough for a side that possesses some of the NBL’s leading shooters.
Key stat: Lead the league in three-point shooting percentage (.397), which shows Brisbane’s potential to pile on the points.
Prediction: Ninth. The Bullets should improve, but finals look beyond their reach.
10. ILLAWARRA HAWKS (1-8)
Grade: F
Pro: The Hawks are struggling, but any side with Sam Froling and Tyler Harvey has the ability to cause enough upsets to at least move from the bottom of the ladder.
Con: The Hawks can’t score enough points or stop points, while the team’s ill-discipline has led to the league’s worst record in committing personal fouls, with an average of 20.2.
Key stat: Last in the league in points per game with a lowly 76.9
Prediction: Last.
DISLIKE
FIBA’s decision to force a forfeit on the Boomers because of Basketball Australia’s call to pull the pin on their trip to Iran over player safety concerns doesn’t pass the pub test.
World basketball’s governing body has also threatened further action against an organisation that is following Federal Government advice – ‘Do Not Travel’.
The forfeit didn’t matter because the Aussies had already qualified, but it could have been very different had the Aussies needed one more win for entry into next year’s World Cup.
That was the fate of the Emus, who missed qualification for the Under-19 World Cup because BA chose not to send a bunch of teenagers 12,000km to a foreign nation where the potential for arbitrary threats, detention and violence is very real.
LIKE
It’s been a tough year so far in Illawarra, but the brightest light is undoubtedly Sam Froling.
The 213cm big has had some monstrous games this season and tore Kazakhstan to shreds in the Boomers’ World Cup qualification-sealing win with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
The kid looks and plays like a 30-year-old veteran, but is still only 22. We might have made a mistake leaving him out of our Boomers power rankings earlier in the week, given his youth and promise.
Does he not have the potential to be a meat and potatoes NBA culture guy somewhere one day?
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