Carlton’s premiership window at risk of closing as month of reckoning awaits
Carlton have the softest draw imaginable after finishing in the top eight last year. Jay Clark writes, the Blues are in danger of becoming the biggest disappointment in the game.
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Charlie Curnow launched a 49m bomb to put Carlton 30 points up in a preliminary final only 20 months ago.
At the back end of the 2023 season, the Blues were the hottest team in the game screaming home winning 11 of 12 games.
They had the Brownlow medallist in the middle, two Coleman medallists leading the forward line, a No.1 draft pick swerving between the arcs, and an All-Australian calibre defender steadying the ship at centre half back.
But with a 17-17 record in the 34 games since the preliminary final fade-out, the Blues are in danger of becoming the biggest disappointment in the game if they can’t brush aside an injury-hit GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium on Saturday.
The club was given an out last year amid a terrible run of injuries.
But after revamping the fitness department at season’s end, the Blues were handed the softest draw imaginable this season with double up games against North Melbourne and West Coast.
After GWS, the Blues take on four teams all outside the eight which should propel them back in.
If they can’t capitalise and make the eight this year with such an easy run through June, their premiership window will be at risk of closing.
And it comes as Tom De Koning weighs up not only an extraordinary $1.7 million a year offer from St Kilda, but also whether the Blues or Saints are closer to their next flag?
Officially, Michael Voss’s men are the worst kicking team in the competition and still trying to win games from inside the trenches when the rest of the competition is off and running.
The Dogs and Cats play footy on speed skates, as we saw on Thursday night.
But the Blues remain stuck in hand-to-hand combat to some degree.
They are the number one contested possession team and are fifth for clearances this year.
Inspirational captain Patrick Cripps polled 45 Brownlow Medal votes last year at a record average 1.9 votes a game.
But the phenomenal onballer has been in the top-three in the coaches’ votes only once this season as he steps up as a back-up ruckman, increasing the enormous physical demands on his 30 year-old self.
He has gone from the sixth-highest rated player in the game last season to 91 this year.
But, in any case, the game has shifted.
It’s ball use that is winning games in modern day footy, and Carlton burn the ball more than any team in the competition going side 50m, almost double the next worst in Melbourne, according to Champion Data.
The Cats lost the contested possession by 13 and the clearances by nine against the Dogs on Thursday night, but triumphed by 14 points.
Clearly, quality trumps quantity in terms of supply in 2025, and Carlton currently don’t punish teams on the outside.
So Carlton’s list management crew have a considerable task to go and find some polished ball users and damaging small forwards at season’s end, but the club has already traded away its first-round pick in this year’s draft.
That went to Hawthorn in exchange for pick 14 which it combined with pick 12 to nab Jagga Smith at pick three last year.
He is some of what they need, albeit coming off a knee injury next season.
But the club’s first pick in a heavily compromised draft this year will be Brisbane’s second-round selection, which could end up in the 50s after all the academy bids.
It’s not a particularly strong crop, talent experts say.
De Koning looks headed for St Kilda which will earn the Blues a first-round compensation selection.
But there is no way they can trade that first-round pick as part of any deal for a replacement ruckman such as Rowan Marshall from St Kilda or Darcy Cameron from Collingwood.
As Carlton said last year when it overlooked Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston, it is time for the kids.
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Originally published as Carlton’s premiership window at risk of closing as month of reckoning awaits
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