SuperFooty 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor: See every vote from every game plus club leaders

The Brownlow is almost here. Before the votes are read out, check out where SuperFooty has every vote going for every match, plus the overall winner and club leaders.

Who will win this year’s Brownlow Medal?

The countdown to the Brownlow Medal is in the home stretch.

Last week SuperFooty released its predictor for the 2021 count. Now it is time to compare our findings with the ultimate stats gurus.

Ahead of the first votes being read out on Sunday night, we’ve looked at the SuperFooty and Champion Data Brownlow Predictors to decipher what the two formulas agree on and what they disagree on.

It is important to note that the voting systems are different, with SuperFooty allocating 3-2-1 for each match while Champion Data divides the six available votes into smaller increments. For example, a player can be awarded anything from 0 to 3, including decimal numbers such as .4 or 1.2.

Before we start, here is the SuperFooty predictor. Scroll down to see the findings.

FIVE THINGS WE AGREE ON:

THE WINNER

Both predictors have Port Adelaide star Ollie Wines coming out on top at the end of the night. And both have a sizeable gap to the second placed finisher.

SuperFooty has Wines five votes ahead while Champion Data has the gap at just under six. Incredibly, there are only two games where both predictors can’t see any chance of him being in the votes. They come in rounds three and eight. The Champion Data model isn’t as confident as SuperFooty in Round 15. They gave Wines .5 of a vote whereas SuperFooty awarded two. In a win against Sydney, Wines had 29 disposals. Travis Boak, Luke Parker, Callum Mills and Lance Franklin are the dangers.

Ollie Wines is the favourite to win this year’s award. Picture: Getty Images

ARE THE ‘MULTI-PADDERS’ ON THE MONEY?

The Brownlow Medal is one of the biggest betting events of the year. And few markets are more popular than the ‘Most Team Votes’. For those who have taken a multi on some selections at short odds, we have good news for you. Both Champion Data and SuperFooty are on board with Josh Kelly ($1.40) being the top Giant, Luke Parker ($1.50) the top Swan and Dustin Martin ($1.15) the top Tiger. All odds are thanks to the TAB.

IT’S GOING TO BE BIG NIGHT FOR SAM WALSH

Through his first 39 AFL games Sam Walsh was awarded 14 Brownlow votes. Expect him to pass that number by some margin this year. Champion Data and SuperFooty both have Walsh inside the top 10.

THE TOP MAGPIE

A move to the midfield did wonders for Jordan De Goey during the season and he is set to be rewarded on Brownlow night. Both predictors agree he should come out as the top Magpie, although Champion Data says it is a case of only just over Brodie Grundy. Listen for De Goey’s name between rounds 11 and 20. In that time SuperFooty has him polling 11 of his 14 votes.

IT IS A TIGHT RACE AT THE DEES

The bookies have listed Clayton Oliver a near lock to be the top Demon. However, both SuperFooty and Champion Data agree it will be a nervous night for anyone taking the short odds. SuperFooty has the gap between Oliver and Christian Petracca at four votes while Champion Data has it at 1.8. Look for this to be decided between rounds eight and 11. SuperFooty awards Oliver a maximum 12 votes in that period and Petracca just one. If Oliver doesn’t cash in here, the upset could be on.

Will Clayton Oliver be the top Demon? Picture: Michael Klein

FIVE THINGS WE DISAGREE ON:

POSITIONS 2-5

The names are almost the same but the order is different when it comes to positions 2-5 on the respective leaderboards. Champion Data’s order after Wines is:

Jack Steele, Jack Macrae, Clayton Oliver and Marcus Bontempelli.

SuperFooty’s order after Wines is:

Oliver, Steele, Bontempelli and Christian Petracca.

As for the difference in the odd men out, SuperFooty has Macrae 16th while Champion Data has Petracca sixth.

IS BONT STILL THE TOP DOG?

He was the hot favourite to win the Brownlow for most of the year but could Marcus Bontempelli end up being pipped by a teammate in the race to be the top Bulldog? Champion Data has given the edge to the ultimate ball magnet Jack Macrae, listing him on 24.5 votes. That is enough to topple the Bont by 1.1 votes. If you can smell an upset, Macrae is $5.50 to be the leading Bulldog and $11 to finish in the top three with TAB.

Marcus Bontempelli is expected to poll well. Picture: Getty Images

WHICH WAY WILL IT GO FOR RORY?

Rory Laird was a huge shining light for Adelaide this season, earning selection in the All Australian squad of 40. But were the umpires paying attention? SuperFooty thinks so and has awarded Laird 20 votes. However, Champion Data has him earning 9.9 and finishing second in the club count to Ben Keays. That should be music to the ears of punters, who can currently snap up Keays to win Adelaide’s count in the “Laird out” market at $1.90. Both predictors have Keays comfortably in front of Taylor Walker who is second in betting.

WILL IT BE A BIG NIGHT FOR BIG MAX?

He is coming off one of the best preliminary finals anyone has ever played. So when it comes to Max Gawn, we believe anything is possible. While SuperFooty has him finishing just outside the top 20, Champion Data has the big ruckman sneaking into the top 10. TAB has the Demons skipper at $8 for top 10 and $2.10 for top 20.

WHICH BOMBER WILL COME OUT ON TOP?

It was a breakout year for Darcy Parish, who at some stages of 2021 was being spoken about as a smokey to win the Brownlow. While that won’t happen, SuperFooty has him just inside the top 10 on 24 votes. However, the Champion Data model has him on just 10 votes, which puts him 9.8 behind Zach Merrett. That’s good news if you like Merrett in the betting. He is $2.10 with TAB to be the top Bomber.

Originally published as SuperFooty 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor: See every vote from every game plus club leaders