Moneyball: Follow all the latest news on player movement in the AFL
Carlton is in the box seat for Docker Adam Cerra but the deal isn’t done yet. Plus the latest on Collingwood’s trade targets and more. REPLAY Q&A.
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Carlton will have to wait for several more weeks to secure Adam Cerra’s commitment as potential bidder Melbourne makes its premiership charge.
Cerra is in no hurry to make a decision on his future even as he is expected to nominate Carlton after the Grand Final, with the Blues well placed to get him home to Victoria.
The Blues will remain nervous about Melbourne’s intent to pull off a trade heist for Cerra given their wide open premiership window and his close friendship with Demons wingman Ed Langdon.
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There is no rush for Cerra to make an official decision. The Blues, with the No.6 draft pick, have the capacity and determination to trade that selection to the Dockers for Cerra.
The trade period starts on October 4, nine days after the September 25 Grand Final.
Carlton also does not have a coach or chief executive, which adds to the uncertainty about the club’s future.
The Demons have no plans to trade Luke Jackson and the Herald Sun understands the contracted key tall is happy to remain at the club that has him under contract until 2022.
So, without a first-round pick, it would seem impossible for the Demons to get a deal done on Cerra.
The Demons would have significant appeal to Cerra if he could get there, but his No.1 priority is remaining to be closer to family and friends and he knows he needs to request a move to a club that can broker that deal.
Cerra remains in Perth and will attend the Dockers’ best-and-fairest as he enjoys his holidays in West Australia.
The Dockers have also lost assistant coach David Hale, who is returning to Hawthorn to work with new coach Sam Mitchell.
Meanwhile, Sydney is prepared to trade wingman Jordan Dawson to Adelaide or Port Adelaide after offering him a long-term deal of up to five years on extremely good money.
The Swans have not offered restricted free agent George Hewett a contract, which means he is destined to find his way to the Blues on a deal of up to four years.
He would have preferred to stay at Sydney had a deal been presented but had no option but to consider rival offers.
With Dawson now leaving and clearing cap room it remains to be seen whether the Swans would reconsider offering Hewett a new contract.
He is a restricted free agent so the Swans could still match any Blues’ offer, or they could see his departure as a way of clearing up their salary cap issues.
Hewett did not finish in the club’s top-10 in the best-and-fairest so the most likely outcome is him still getting to the Blues.
Carlton is close to securing Jack Silvagni and Brodie Kemp on new deals, and Nic Newman is also expected to re-sign at the Blues after a solid back-end to the season.
Dees lock in recruiting mastermind
Melbourne’s super recruiter Jason Taylor is off limits to rivals after signing a new long-term deal to stay at the Demons.
The man who handpicked Melbourne’s brilliant list at the draft and is now widely considered one of the top talent spotters in the game has inked a fresh four-year contract extension.
Senior Melbourne officials are thrilled with Taylor’s no-fuss re-signing as the Demons shoot for their first premiership in 57 years in next Saturday’s Grand Final.
The Demons’ list is in a sweet spot which could keep the club in premiership contention for the next four to five years with superstar midfielders Clayton Oliver, 24, and Christian Petracca, 25, in their prime.
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And Taylor, who crossed from Collingwood in 2012, was certain to be targeted by rivals after a stunning run at the draft which has delivered Melbourne a Rolls Royce playing list.
The eagle-eyed talent spotter and former refrigeration engineer got his first chance working for legendary recruiter John Beveridge at St Kilda and then, in a chance encounter, met Magpies’ list boss Derek Hine when Taylor installed an air conditioner at his house.
Taylor played a small role helping build Collingwood’s 2010 premiership team and has excelled at Melbourne in recent times nailing a slew of early picks including Rising Star winner Luke Jackson (pick No. 3) and excitement machine Kysaiah Pickett (No. 13) and half back Trent Rivers (No. 32) .
And despite fears about the COVID-19 impacts on last year’s draft crop, Taylor unearthed super-clean Caleb Daniel clone Jake Bowey, who will keep his spot for the Grand Final, with the club’s first pick at No. 21.
Taylor also found leading goal kicker Bayley Fritsch with the No. 31 selection Melbourne secured in exchange for Jack Watts, promising midfielder James Jordon (No. 33), speedster Jayden Hunt (No. 57) and James Harmes with a rookie pick.
His ability to unearth gems with the middle-round and late picks has been hailed by his peers as his biggest success after hitting the jackpot with first-rounders Oliver (No. 4), who came from the clouds late in his draft year, Petracca (No. 2), Angus Brayshaw (No. 3) and Christian Salem (No. 9).
Jet playmakers Oliver and Petracca are two of the favourites to win this year’s Brownlow Medal after sensational seasons earning All-Australian selection.
Securing Taylor’s signature was a priority for Melbourne football boss Alan Richardson, while the club’s attention will soon turn to re-signing Simon Goodwin beyond 2022 after next Saturday’s Grand Final.
The Demons’ run of draft hits has turned the tables on Melbourne’s previously poor record when its list build failed to take off on the back of selecting Cale Morton, Lucas Cook, Jordan Gysberts, Luke Tapscott and Tom Scully and Jack Trengove.
Melbourne, which will start favourite against Western Bulldogs in the premiership decider, is determined to keep out-of-contract key forward Sam Weideman in the face of interest from North Melbourne.
Collingwood also wants to bolster its key position stocks but may not have the salary cap room or draft picks to pull off a deal for Weideman.
Weideman was injured earlier in the season and was leapfrogged by new recruit Ben Brown and Jackson as tall marking targets in attack
Why won't Mitchell whispers go away?
Hawthorn forward Jack Gunston looks poised to stay at Waverley unless there is an 11th-hour bid from an unexpected rival.
At this stage Gunston has no plans to switch clubs for 2022 despite being linked to Melbourne as a potential back-up for Sam Weideman if he left the Demons for North Melbourne.
Melbourne has a tight salary cap and any money it has leftover would go towards Adam Cerra if the Docker made the call to head to the Demons over the Blues.
Cerra is still expected to nominate Carlton as his preferred new home along with Sydney tough nut George Hewett.
Collingwood expressed an interest in Gunston last year but discussions hit a roadblock when Hawthorn said it wanted a first-round draft pick for him.
The Magpies would have entertained a deal for Gunston if they could have nabbed him for a late pick, but the Hawks opted to keep him before injury hit.
The premiership goal kicker played only one game amid a terrible back injury which essentially wiped out his season.
Hawthorn is keen to add to its picks this year and while Tom Mitchell’s name continues to bob up in trade rumours a club is yet to emerge for him.
Lachie Neale’s decision to stay in Brisbane ended any chance of Mitchell heading north to the Lions.
Mitchell, a Brownlow Medalist, enjoyed a strong second half of the season as the Hawks finished the year strong under departed coach Alastair Clarkson.
Gunston, 29, would not command a high pick in any deal for the Hawks after last year’s injury troubles.
He is hopeful of having a full pre-season and regaining fitness after almost a full year out of the game.
Monumental free agency fizzer: Which top targets are left?
Collingwood has a fight on its hands to keep back-up ruckman Max Lynch as an insurance policy for superstar big man Brodie Grundy next season.
The Magpies have started talks on a new deal for Lynch after appointing new senior coach Craig McRae as Nathan Buckley’s replacement.
Lynch, 22, would consider staying at the Magpies beyond this year, pending offers from rival clubs including Hawthorn which is looking to bolster its big man stocks.
Grundy is on a bumper deal at the Magpies worth about $900,000 a season and is again expected to finish top-five in the best and fairest with Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey the favourites.
Hawthorn flagged some interest in Lynch last year as Sam Mitchell’s men look to secure a younger replacement for Jon Ceglar and Ben McEvoy.
The GWS Giants have lost Shane Mumford to retirement but will hope ex-Demon and North ruckman Braydon Preuss can overcome his luckless run of injuries next season.
North Melbourne big man Todd Goldstein is committed to the Kangaroos as they look to take a step up the ladder next season.
Goldstein, who has played 273 games, has had another superb year and is one full season away from the magical 33-game milestone.
Only five players in the club’s history have cracked 300 games. They are Brent Harvey (432), Drew Petrie (316), Glenn Archer (311), Wayne Schimmelbusch and Adam Simpson (both 306).
All is quiet as on trade front with money tight
The trade season is looming as a monumental fizzer as potential free agents continue to recommit to their own clubs.
St Kilda expects to finalise remaining details of a four-year deal for Jack Billings in coming days, removing another quality free agent off the board.
It follows the Herald Sun revealing on Tuesday that Cam Guthrie had signed a four-season deal at Geelong, while Sydney’s Luke Parker inked a four-year contract with the Swans.
Parker’s management group had investigated interest from rival teams before being able to convince the Swans to double their two-year offer.
Sydney’s George Hewett is one of the few remaining free agents with any currency and is expected to find his way to Carlton.
Another key factor in a lack of movement is that clubs simply do not have cash to splash around given they pushed salary cap room back into next year under AFL rules after last year’s pay cuts.
North Melbourne’s Trent Dumont might have some takers as an inside mid but few have the extra money to throw at a solid role player.
A new 2020 deal for Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray is a formality.
Gray missed a trigger clause for 2022 when he injured his medial ligament but both parties are content with negotiations for next year.
Billings had some interest from North Melbourne but as he dealt with a plantar fascia issue this year wasn’t able to show the exceptional form that might have seen them hand him a lucrative deal.
Billings’ signing will mean Sydney tagger Hewett is the only restricted free agent on the market.
Of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury will sign a new deal and Josh Thomas is likely to get a one-year contract.
Carlton’s Matt Kennedy will likely get another one-year rookie deal, Lachie Henderson can play on at the Cats if he is keen, Sam Day will re-sign at the Suns, Tim O’Brien is assessing rival interest after being told to wait on a new deal at the Hawks.
Robbie Tarrant, Jack Ziebell and Shaun Atley might have to accept one-year deals at the Roos, Hamish Hartlett is touch-and-go for another deal (and would take a big pay cut to stay).
Mabior Chol could leave Richmond as an unrestricted free agent, while Seb Ross will likely stay on a two-year deal at St Kilda.
Sam Reid is still uncontracted at Sydney, while Josh Kennedy is likely to stay on a one-year deal at West Coast.
And Mitch Wallis is likely to move on at the Western Bulldogs if he can find a new home.
The free agency period opens on the Friday after the Grand Final but given the single free agent in Hewett who holds significant appeal will likely get to Carlton, it shapes as a monumental fizzer.
Martin, dogs to consider future options
Stef Martin will sit down with the Dogs after the season to consider his future after missing a trigger clause in his contract because of his groin issues.
Martin signed a one-year deal with a games-based trigger but has played only seven games this year before being recalled for the preliminary final.
It shows how highly the Dogs value his contested work in the ruck despite his limited preparation.
The Dogs are on the lookout for another established ruckman but there are few around who would allow Tim English to play as a legitimate key position forward.
So Martin could secure another one-year deal as backup or retire after an excellent career at Melbourne, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs over 14 seasons.
He plays his 198th game on Saturday night so cannot get to 200 games this year, but if he can overcome his groin issues he is clearly worth having on the Dogs list even if they secure another ruckman.
Suns locked in Jeffrey to immediate four-year deal
Joel Jeffrey’s initial four-year deal at Gold Coast has warded off interest from rival clubs wowed by his eight goals straight in the VFL and impressive first season.
The son of Brisbane and St Kilda player Russell Jeffrey played four AFL games for 2.4 but looks an exceptional athletic package who can play forward and back as a 192cm marking weapon.
Clubs sniffing around Jeffrey found out he signed a four-year deal as soon as he was drafted.
He drew headlines when his manager Peter Jess signed him up for concussion testing before every season to safeguard his brain.
Jess said on Friday he was hopeful the testing regime might be taken up by entire clubs in coming seasons.
“We get a test at the start and end of every season for comparison to see if there is any change in his brain structure and his cognitive state between those two periods,” he said.
“We are trying to get it mandated for all players and we are hopeful of starting a research project with one club next year. We want every AFL and AFL player to sign up eventually.”
Jess would not confirm outside interest – believed to be from one of his father’s former clubs – but has massive hopes for Jeffrey.
“He is a long-term project at the Suns but we hope he can be one of their superstars.”
Will Hawks look to draft raid?
Hawthorn is torn between backing in the established stars on its list and emulating Essendon’s raid on the 2020 national draft that secured them three future stars for the next 12 years.
Most of the Hawks’ premiership players – Ben McEvoy, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels – will be untouchable given Sam Mitchell believes they are integral to the club’s leadership as the kids learn how to play the right way.
But the list management group has seen the bold recruiting of Port Adelaide – with the Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma raid — and Essendon in securing Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, and Zach Reid with picks 8-10 last year.
It is why a club with picks five, 21 and 24 must be open to improving its draft hand if offers come for the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston and Jaeger O’Meara.
Denver Grainger-Barras (pick 6) and Will Day (pick 13) are the only players taken by Hawthorn within pick 25 on their list.
And for all the inventive mid-season and summer rookie recruiting they have done it is simply not a list profile that will win premierships.
Hopper locked in, Giants face other veteran calls
Star GWS midfielder Jacob Hopper has signed the two-year contract extension that had been a formality for some months.
As the Herald Sun revealed mid-year, Hopper was always keen to remain at the Giants on a two-year deal through to free agency despite most Victorian clubs asking about his services.
The hard contested ballplayer has joined Sam Taylor, Jesse Hogan and Josh Kelly in re-signing at the Giants in recent weeks.
Shane Mumford is expected to retire and the Giants will need to make a decision on Phil Davis, but GWS has kept its list together after a punishing 10-week period on the road where the players thrived with each other’s company.
“The club’s been great in allowing me to focus on my football across what was a really disrupted season for us,” he said.
“I’m really excited to officially re-sign and I think we’ve shown on-field this season that we’re building something really special that I want to be a part of.
“I’m really looking forward to continuing to progress with this young group we have next season and into the future.”
Birchall makes big call on playing future
Four-time premiership player Grant Birchall has called time on his AFL celebrated career.
The 33-year-old defender will bow out after 16 seasons and 287 games with Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions, highlighted by his four flags with the Hawks in 2008 and 2013-15.
His last game came in the Lions’ heartbreaking one-point semi-final loss to Western Bulldogs last Saturday night.
Birchall told his Lions teammates of his decision on Friday morning as the club also farewelled assistant coach Dale Tapping, who is returning to Victoria.
Birchall has been one of the most underrated and dependable halfbacks of the past decade and a half, with his penetrating left foot and his composure under pressure frequently slicing his team out of trouble.
A Tasmanian, he was drafted to the Hawks as pick 14 of the 2005 national draft and went on to a long and successful career in brown and gold.
In his third AFL season, he played in Hawthorn’s 2008 premiership success as a 20-year-old, and was instrumental in the club’s three-peat of flags from 2013-15.
His best individual season came in 2012, when his level of consistency was rewarded with selection in the All-Australian team.
Having been one of the Hawks’ most durable players in his first 11 seasons, injuries started to take a toll on Birchall in the latter years of time at the club.
He played only eight games across three seasons – with no games in 2018 – but a decision to join Brisbane and Chris Fagan in 2020 paid dividends.
He played 39 games for the Lions across two seasons, adding to his 248 with the Hawks, with his four finals at Brisbane taking his overall tally to 27.
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