SuperCoach Round 16 trade guide: Why you should hold Sydney Stack, Scott Lycett and Reilly O’Brien
Sydney Stack has two tons and a 98 in SuperCoach from his past four games. Should you cash the Tigers rookie in now or back him to reach $450,000? ROUND 16 TRADE GUIDE.
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Is a resurgent Marc Murphy one of the SuperCoach bargains of the year?
The Blues veteran and former skipper was the hero against Fremantle on Sunday, booting the matchwinner om his way to a season-high 125 SuperCoach points.
Due to his 18 against GWS — when he was crunched by ruckman Shane Mumford — the on-baller’s price bottomed out at $368,400 last week.
He eclipsed his break even of 101 against the Dockers, rising by $10,700 to $379,100.
Murphy scored 91-114 four times in the opening five rounds and has managed 99 and 125 in the past two rounds.
Trading Sam Walsh, who still features in 83,631 teams, to Murphy would net a $64,900 profit.
If you’re still carrying Walsh at M8 or M9 and need money to upgrade in other positions, cashing in Walsh to Murphy is a move you need to consider.
HOW SHOULD YOUR FINISHED TEAM LOOK?
League finals are in sight and the business end of the SuperCoach season will soon be upon us.
If you’re still carrying on-field rookies and have enough trades to upgrade them, your priority this week should be how to turn them into any of the year’s top scorers.
If you can flip Xavier Duursma ($366,400) to Shannon Hurn ($544,500), for example, you gain a premium scorer in defence to bolster your bid for a successful finish.
The must-have players on each line should be obvious by this point of the year.
If you can finish with Hurn, Lachie Whitfield and Jake Lloyd in defence, you’ll have an edge on those who don’t have the topscoring trio.
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The ‘big five’ in midfield is Josh Kelly, Lachie Neale, Nat Fyfe, Jack Macrae and Patrick Cripps. Complement these five players with the likes of Ben Cunnington, Rory Sloane and Zach Merrett and your side will be tough to topple.
Barring negative injury news out of the Demons this week, Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy will be the ruck combination you must finish with. They are averaging a combined 255 points per week and Gawn’s average of 125 is 22 points better than the third-ranked ruckman Todd Goldstein.
Travis Boak, Patrick Dangerfield and Tim Kelly are still the three top guns up forward, although Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley have stated a strong case to usurp them in the past month.
Of course, there are mitigating factors when considering how many of these players are in your final side.
If you’re low on trades, you’ll need to hold firm with rookies and upgrade closer to the end of the season. Otherwise, cross your fingers and hope you avoid injuries or players being rested — which seems unlikely.
Those with Reilly O’Brien, Scott Lycett and Sydney Stack face a difficult call on when, and whether, to upgrade them.
Lycett has a break even of -8 after scores of 180 and 165 in the past two weeks and will surge past $600,000 as the sole ruckman at Port Adelaide.
O’Brien has a break even of one and plenty more money to make, despite the obvious temptation to upgrade him should he be stuck at R3 behind Gawn and Grundy. If you can stay patient for a few more rounds, he could be a direct swap to a top midfielder such as Kelly.
Stack will have no trouble meeting his break even of 43 this week and has jumped to $411,500.
Loading your team with premiums is usually a safe ploy, but it doesn’t guarantee success. As we saw with Max Gawn on Sunday, even the best can be slowed by an unforeseen injury and premium midfielders often carry the danger of being tagged.
Play the long game with Stack, O’Brien and Lycett and you’ll be rewarded when others are scrambling in the last month.
TOP TARGETS
Shannon Hurn $544,500, Def, Average 111.2, Break even 127
One of the defensive premiums of the year, the West Coast skipper just finds a way to rack up points. He benefited from Hawthorn’s inaccuracy on Saturday which led to kick outs and has scored 94 and 102 in the past two weeks despite two of his quieter games for the year. If it’s not this week, then plan on adding Hurn to your team in Round 17. He’s still only in 19.1 per cent of sides, but that number should soar before league finals.
Josh Kelly $629,900, Mid, Avg 121.1, BE: 141
You might get him cheaper next week, but do you really want to wait another round for a player who scores points as easily as Kelly? He cruised to 104 with little fuss against Essendon despite having Dylan Clarke for company after a red-hot start on Thursday. Few players can score as quickly as the GWS star does and if you’ve got enough bank to grab him, he’s worth the high price tag. He’s scored eight tons in a row and 128 or better in five of his past seven games.
Travis Boak $564,500, Fwd, Avg 113.1, BE: 102
Boak has the best average and the most points of any SuperCoach forward this year. Need we say more? His return to midfield has been a masterstroke by Power coach Ken Hinkley and Boak produces the goods regardless of whether the inconsistent Port Adelaide wins or not. His past four scores are 114 or better and you’ll suffer if he’s not in your finishing team.
Nat Fyfe $621,000, Mid, Avg 120.6, BE: 130
One of the most reliable captaincy options, the Fremantle skipper has seven scores of 124 or better in his last nine games (most coaches use 125 as the line for taking a VC loophole). If you’ve still got a spot available in your midfield and money up your sleeve, Fyfe or Josh Kelly should be in your sights.
Lachie Neale $554,600, Mid, Avg 121.6, BE: 113
The Brisbane Lions star already features in 49.1 per cent of sides and rewarded those coaches when he returned to top form with 137 points against Melbourne. Neale’s season average of 121.6 is still the best of any midfielder, yet he’s available for almost $70,000 less than Fyfe and more than $75,000 less than Josh Kelly. If you don’t have him yet, make this the round you jump on. There’s no Matt De Boer tag to worry about this week.
Marc Murphy $379,100, Mid, Avg 81.3, BE: 1
The bargain pick of this week’s options. Forgive Murphy’s season average, which is largely due to a score of 18 when he was crunched by Shane Mumford and a 39 when he had a poor outing against Hawthorn. The former Carlton skipper was superb against Fremantle on Sunday in Patrick Cripps’ absence, amassing 125 points. Murphy has six scores of 91 or higher in 11 matches and represents serious value at $379,100. If Cripps misses again due to his foot injury, that will only increase Murphy’s value.
Tim Kelly $551,300, Fwd-Mid, Avg 107.4, BE: 123
The Brownlow Medal favourite will be one of the top SuperCoach forwards of the year. His average might be six points below Travis Boak, but when Kelly is on he arguably has the highest ceiling of any forward. He’s dipped below 100 three times in the past six weeks but $551,300 is well below where he should be priced.
Rory Sloane $535,300, Mid, Avg 110.1, BE: 63
It’s not too late to jump on Sloane even if you missed out at his base price of $511,000 last week. There’s a school of thought due to his history of being restricted by past tags that Sloane represents a SuperCoach trap. But he scored triple figures when tagged by Matt De Boer and has hit the 120-mark in six matches. Trap? Not any more.
Adam Treloar $529,100, Mid, Avg 108, BE: 60
Like Sloane, Treloar was at his base price heading into Round 15 when he was $502,500. His Round 16 price is still value for a player with a 108-point average. Treloar’s consistency has been undersold this year. He’s already pumped out 10 hundreds and three of the four matches he didn’t reach that mark were between 83-93. You’ll be paying top dollar in a few weeks if you don’t make the move now.
Ben Cunnington $568,500, Mid, Avg 113.1, BE: 132
After being kept to 59 by Matt De Boer, contested bull Cunnington returned to premium numbers with 146 against Collingwood. In his past six matches he has gone — 127, 99, 133, 132, 59 and 146. Contested possessions are gold in SuperCoach and no one is as prolific in that area as Cunnington. A few savvy coaches jumped on during the byes but he’s still a POD with 6.8 per cent ownership.
Rowan Marshall $569,500, Ruc, Avg 108.4, BE: 57
You’ve heard and read it every week — a first-year ruckman will slow down at some point. But Marshall continues to silence those suggestions with dominant performances. In the past four rounds he’s averaging 135.2 points and his work around the ground has been as good as any ruckman in the game. His current price is as expensive as he has been for the season but with a break even of 57, Marshall will be close to $600,000 by Round 17.
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WAIT A WEEK
Jake Lloyd $575,400, Def, Avg 112.7, BE: 174
Michael Walters $569,700, Fwd-Mid, Avg 102.2, BE: 157
Lachie Whitfield $564,100, Def, Avg 110.9, BE: 154
Lloyd, Walters and Whitfield are capable of massive scores, but still unlikely to meet their sky-high break evens this round. GWS co-captain Phil Davis said at the weekend he hoped Whitfield would return from a collarbone injury in Round 16. Lloyd’s score of 61 against Gold Coast was his lowest since Round 20, 2017, while Walters’ 81 against Carlton wasn’t enough to stop his break even soaring. The Fremantle star has hit 157 once this year, when he kicked six goals against Port Adelaide.
CHOPPING BLOCK
Xavier Duursma $366,400, Def-Mid, Avg 71.6, BE: 95
Marty Hore $409,000, Def, Avg 83, BE: 117
Oskar Baker $236,100, Mid, Avg 54.2, BE: 32
Noah Answerth $234,700, Def-Mid, Avg 53.9 BE: 38
Sam Walsh $444,000, Mid, Avg 89.1, BE: 133
Duursma and Hore have done their jobs as starting SuperCoach rookies, reaching their maximum price and averaging above 70. If you’ve still got either defender, cash in now before their price falls further. Ideally, you’ll have the money spare to upgrade them to either Hurn or Whitfield. Baker and Answerth aren’t must-trades, but if you need to consider a midfield move, they would be the most likely to make way from the popular rookie selections. Walsh managed 80 in Carlton’s win against Fremantle but you should be aiming to turn him into Kelly or Fyfe soon. The bold move would be downgrading him to Marc Murphy and making a $64,900 profit.
HOLD
Reilly O’Brien $509,200, Ruc, Avg 97.7, BE: 1
Scott Lycett $568,600, Fwd-Ruc, Avg 100.4, BE: -8
Sydney Stack $411,500, Mid, Avg 81.8, BE: 43
Yes, you want to get to full premium status as quickly as possible. But unless you’re flush with trades, it doesn’t make sense to be trading out players who still have ample money to make. Reilly O’Brien sitting at R3 heading toward the run home isn’t ideal, but if you’re patient enough you can turn him into Josh Kelly or Nat Fyfe in 2-3 weeks. Lycett has scored 180 and 165 in the past two weeks since Paddy Ryder has been dropped, while Stack’s 98 against St Kilda should enable him to reach $450,000.
BARGAIN BIN
Under 500k
Luke Ryan $492,600
Daniel Rich $490,700
Tom Stewart $488,000
Isaac Heeney $467,900
Christian Salem $466,600
Jack Crisp $457,500
Dylan Shiel $455,800
Under 450k
Joel Selwood $448,700
James Sicily $435,000
David Mundy $429,900
Marc Murphy $379,100
Originally published as SuperCoach Round 16 trade guide: Why you should hold Sydney Stack, Scott Lycett and Reilly O’Brien
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