Gary Buckenara analyses Hawthorn’s list after the 2021 season
Hawthorn’s flag-fuelled recycling program has had a significant impact on its draft hand. And two cases in particular were mistakes, writes Gary Buckenara.
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Hawthorn went three years too long in its quest to find another flag, and has suffered from giving away its early picks.
Two cases especially — former Giants Jonathan Patton and Tom Scully — turned out to be big mistakes which impacted the group in a big way, culture in particular.
But let’s not stop there with the recycling program at the Hawks.
Players like Chad Wingard and Jaeger O’Meara have been fair but are not the A-graders they expected.
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Jarman Impey was unlucky, Sam Frost has been serviceable, Tom Phillips has been good and Michael Hartley and Kyle Hartigan again only fair.
These recruiting decisions are why the Hawks now find themselves down near the bottom of the ladder.
Losing the likes of James Sicily, Tom Mitchell and Impey to serious injuries in the past few years hasn’t helped and, with the depth of players lacking to cover that personnel, the Hawks just can’t compete for four quarters at the moment.
Of the younger players, I’ve got a lot of time for Will Day, Changkuoth Jiath (injured) and Denver Grainger-Barras.
Time will tell on the rest of the development players and how they progress will play a big part in how long the Hawks are at the bottom half of the AFL ladder, but I expect it will be at least five years.
LIST NEEDS
The Hawks must reinvest in the draft, get as many top-30 draft picks as possible and go back to focusing on recruiting genuine footballers with skills and footy smarts.
TRADE TARGETS
Hawthorn’s only trade activity this year should be trading out players to get as many top-30 or 40 draft picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts as they can to invest in the young talent they’ve recently ignored.
They should not be a major player in the trade period aside from looking to collect as many early top 30 picks as possible.
UNTOUCHABLES
Day, Sicily, Ben McEvoy, and any of the future AB ranked players.
But given the lack of highly-rated young players, the Hawks must invest in the draft for the next two years and this will mean looking at moving on some experienced players if they can get some top 30 draft picks for them.
LIST ANALYSIS: EVERY HAWTHORN PLAYER RATED
TRADE BAIT
Tim O’Brien is a player who has potential but has never really reached great heights.
He’s from South Australia and maybe one of the SA teams could see value in him.
He can play as a back-up ruckman, which they need, and a draft pick in the 30-40 range would be a good result for Hawthorn.
Wingard is a class player and he might be better off looking for a club that will play finals and I would entertain a pick 20-30 for him, or keep him.
Collingwood looked at Jack Gunston, so see what the Magpies are prepared to offer up this year? If it’s a second-round pick then I would entertain it.
Luke Breust is another. They are not going to get rid of all these players and I would be reluctant to move on both Gunston and Breust as they still have plenty to offer and forwards like this are hard to find. So, like Gunston, a second-round pick would be needed to at least consider it.
UNDER THE PUMP
The list management and recruiting teams at the Hawks must get the next two to three years spot on.
When a list needs to rebuild again because of poor list decisions, as I have mentioned here about the Hawks, then unfortunately many good servants like those referenced as trade bait will come under scrutiny.
Many of the C-ranked players and, unfortunately, many of the Hawks’ development players were speculative picks because they were late draft picks over the past four or so years, meaning there are doubts over whether they can become good A or B grade players.
That’s why the draft becomes so important for the Hawks over the next few years.
RATING THE LIST
WHAT THE RATINGS MEAN
List management is one of the most important jobs at an AFL club.
Poor decisions can be catastrophic — and Collingwood proved that last year.
Far too many clubs can often hold an overly-optimistic view when ranking their own lists and this can lead to years of mediocrity and has Carlton done this recently?
When clubs are rating their lists, they should rank players as: A+, A, B+, B, C+, C and Development.
In this list analysis, I have just done A, B, C and two tiers of development (“future AB players” and “need more time”) because with the younger players it is important to see who is coming through and those that need more time.
The important area for clubs to look at is how many A and B ranked players they have as well as future consistent AB players.
These rankings are my opinions, but they should give supporters a reasonable snapshot as to where their playing list sits now — and how they might look in a few years’ time.
LIST FORMULA
Players 22 and over
A-grade: Elite players on any AFL list
B: Top 10-18 player on most lists
C: An 19-30 player on a list
Developing: Aged 21 or under
Future AB players: These are players that will hopefully develop into an A or B ranked player once they turn 22. They might be playing to this level now, but it takes sustained years.
Need more time: These players would be a player recently drafted that is still developing and therefore will need more time to see if he is likely to develop into an A or B grade player.
HAWTHORN’S LIST RATINGS
A-grade: Tom Mitchell, James Sicily,
B: Jarman Impey, James Worpel, Ben McEvoy, Sam Frost, Shaun Burgoyne (retired), Jaeger O’Meara, Jack Scrimshaw, Blake Hardwick, Jonathon Ceglar, Jack Gunston, Chad Wingard, Tom Phillips, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels.
C: Harry Morrison, Mitch Lewis, Conor Nash, Ollie Hanrahan, Lachlan Bramble, Daniel Howe, Tim O’Brien, Kyle Hartigan, Ned Reeves, James Cousins (delisted), Michael Hartley (delisted), Keegan Brooksby (delisted).
DEVELOPMENT
Future AB players: Will Day, Changkuoth Jiath, Finn Maginness, Denver Grainger-Barras, Connor Downie
Need more time: Jacob Koschitzke, Josh Morris, Dylan Moore, Emerson Jeka, Seamus Mitchell, Tyler Brockman, Jack Saunders, Jai Newcombe, Jackson Callow, Damon Greaves (delisted), Harrison Pepper (delisted).
LIST BREAKDOWN:
A Grade = 2
B Grade = 14
C grade = 12
DEVELOPMENT
Future AB players = 5
Need more time = 11
MORE GARY BUCKENARA
BUCKENARA: WHY THE C-WORD DOESN’T SIT WELL AT CARLTON
BUCKY: HOW KANGAS CAN BECOME A DESTINATION CLUB
BUCKENARA: THE YOUNG TALENT CROWS NEED TO INVEST IN
CRYSTAL BALL
The Hawks have made a big decision to anoint Sam Mitchell as senior coach and replace Alastair Clarkson in 2022.
It’s plain to see what’s lacking on the list with only two A-graders and both of them have had serious injuries, which is a worry.
There are 14 B-graders, many of them ageing, which is another worry, 12 C-Graders with many depth players only.
I do hope some of the five future AB players can elevate themselves towards A or B level in time as this will determine how long the Hawks stay towards the bottom of the ladder.
The problem was giving away those years of early picks, it meant the Hawks recruiters were armed with only late second or third round picks and the draft stats tell us the success rates of these picks are far less than early picks in the first and second rounds.
List management and recruiting decisions have a huge impact if you get them wrong and I think the Hawks did get it wrong.
Unfortunately, it’s not going to be a quick fix and the Hawks will be at the bottom of the ladder for a few years yet.
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Mitchell must be given an opportunity, like Alastair Clarkson was back in 2004, to build and develop a list via the draft and be told to play the kids.
Next season will be interesting. Mitchell has a very smart football IQ but he will need to soften his approach in dealing with players and staff as he can be quite arrogant with his opinions and this is a strong trait to have.
But when dealing with so many individuals within a football club it can become a weakness as well.
Hawks fans have been spoiled over time with premierships in the 80s, 90s, 2000s and 2010s but what will the 2020s hold?
It will need a great list and recruiting decisions, a great development program with solidarity by everyone over the next two to three years to be able to add another premiership in the 2020s.
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