AFL Trade: How Geelong can get Bailey Smith trade done with Western Bulldogs

Bailey Smith confirmed football's worst-kept secret when he requested a trade to Geelong. But, the haggling has only just started. JOSH BARNES examines how a trade could play out. 

MELBOURNE. 03/06/2022. AFL Round 12. Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong at Marvel Stadium. Bulldog Bailey Smith breaks from the Luke Dahlhaus of the Cats tackle. Photo by Michael Klein

As with all trade talk, it was unsurprising the Western Bulldogs began the official Bailey Smith discourse by digging in their heels.

Smith told Luke Beveridge last month that he wanted out of the club and the battle for leverage kicked off in earnest. 

The midfielder is out-of-contract, so it would appear he is in pole position to rule the deal.

But as a 23-year-old who is expected to enjoy another decade in the game and join his second club on a long-term deal, the Dogs will understandably demand a strong return.

Bailey Smith is on the move. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

Smith officially confirmed this week he wanted to play for the Cats after speculation about the move had been swirling for months. 

The Cats will not have a first pick before No. 15 in November’s draft and it is more than likely that selection will push into the early-20s once academy and father-son picks are accounted for.

That pick alone will not satisfy the Dogs and asking for Geelong’s future first in the hope it will be a better selection may be folly given the club has missed finals twice in 18 seasons and could be bolstered by the arrivals of Smith, Clayton Oliver and Jack Martin. 

The Cats have all their picks available so could trade both their first and second for Smith, but would picks 20 and 36 be enough?

It seems to be the fairest middle ground.

The star Bulldog is a wanted man. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

Trading two first-round picks has been a high-risk strategy but Geelong’s first this year is essentially an early second and the Cats would back themselves to make another deep run in 2025 with the addition of Smith, Martin and potentially Oliver to the team, so two picks sitting around 20 might be the best they can offer without working to get up the order this off-season.

Oliver's wish to cross from Melbourne to Geelong after his recent meeting with Rhys Stanley and Tom Stewart has only served to complicate the situation. 

It has left the Cats with a decision to make on young fringe players with value such as Jhye Clark and Mitch Knevitt. 

The Demons or Dogs could ask for Sam De Koning, who found himself out of the team in finals, but he is committed to staying at Geelong and seeing out his contract.  

Cats list boss Andrew Mackie dug his own heels in somewhat last year in the Esava Ratugolea deal over late picks and will push for what he sees as a fair price.

The Cats could threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft but that very rarely comes to fruition and Geelong’s pick there would be late anyway.

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

A host of quality young midfielders have been traded in the last three seasons, almost all of them for deals centred on top-10 picks.

Adam Cerra’s move potentially mirrors Smith the best, and the former Docker also didn’t specify a club when he asked for a trade before later making clear he wanted to be a Blue.

Cerra was two years younger than Smith is now and went for pick 6 and a future third.

Jacob Hopper sits in a similar band of high-potential player without many accolades and was traded from GWS to Richmond at the age of 25 for pick 31 and a future first, with two late picks going back to the Tigers.

Josh Dunkley was better credentialed when he got his move from the Dogs to Brisbane at age 25.

He went for pick 21 and a future first, with some other picks swapped around.

WHO ELSE SHOULD GET INVOLVED

There isn’t a person in the footy industry who expects Smith to go anywhere except Geelong.

But, why wouldn't rivals at least ask the question if a deal drags deep into the trade period? 

Melbourne needs more youthful legs in its midfield, although Smith’s kicking would be a worry in a Demons side that can hack the footy.

The Dees have pick five, which would be a great start.

St Kilda has been searching for a star midfielder and could have picks seven and eight once the Josh Battle compensation is sorted, with his running game perfectly suited to Ross Lyon’s new style.

The Saints are keen to draft young on-ballers with those picks.

Collingwood was interested earlier this year but could only offer next year’s first rounder while Hawthorn appears too busy with Tom Barrass.

Originally published as AFL Trade: How Geelong can get Bailey Smith trade done with Western Bulldogs