AFL ladder predictor: Which pick will your club have in the mid-season draft?
The chance to secure a top pick at next week’s mid-season draft will go down to the wire, with the current indicative draft order facing a potential major shake-up based on Round 10 results.
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The chance to secure a top pick at next week’s mid-season draft is set to go down to the wire, with the current indicative draft order facing a major shake-up as a number of evenly placed rivals prepare to square off in a massive Round 10.
In what will be the first mid-season draft since 1993, teams will pick in reverse ladder order based on their positions at the conclusion of next week’s games.
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As it currently stands, only Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, St Kilda and West Coast don’t have vacant list spots to participate.
Meanwhile, Gold Coast, Richmond and Greater Western Sydney could take two players if they choose.
But how will the top picks ultimately fall? Check out the highest and lowest draft pick options for those battling it out at the wrong end of the ladder.
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CARLTON
Current position: 18th
Opponent: St Kilda
Pick range 1-2
Yet another draft where we are talking about Carlton landing the top pick. Only this time they will get to keep it. Just 24 hours ago it was looking like being a tight race for the all-important first selection however, the 93-point loss to the Giants sent the Blues’ percentage plummeting. As it currently stands, Carlton is in the box seat to snare Coburg forward Sam Lowson with the first pick.
EARLIEST PICK: If the Blues lose to St Kilda, a side they have not beaten since Round 4, 2015, they will be assured of getting the top pick. The Saints will hit the Sunday afternoon Marvel Stadium clash with the added advantage of an eight-day break while the Blues will have had seven days to try and forget their brutal loss to the Giants.
LATEST PICK: The Blues can jump to the second pick if they beat the Saints and North Melbourne goes down to the Western Bulldogs. For this to play out, Carlton would need to win by around five goals and the Kangaroos would need to lose by a similar margin.
OUR PREDICTION: The Blues will be on the bottom of the ladder and pick first.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Current position: 17th
Opponent: Western Bulldogs
Pick range 1-5
North Melbourne hits Round 10 with one of the widest potential pick bands of any club. There is a path, albeit unlikely, to the top pick while a win could see them fall out of the top four selections.
EARLIEST PICK: As mentioned, a 30-point win for Carlton over the Saints and a 30-point loss for the Roos to the Bulldogs would be enough to drop North to the bottom of the table and hand them pick one in the draft.
LATEST PICK: A North Melbourne win coupled with Collingwood beating Sydney, Geelong beating Gold Coast and GWS beating Melbourne would lift the club to 14th on the ladder and hand it the fifth pick come draft night.
OUR PREDICTION: The Roos won’t get over the Dogs and will pick second.
GOLD COAST
Current position: 16th
Opponent: Geelong
Pick range 2-5
After a highly competitive start to the season, the Suns have now lost four in a row and come up against the top of the table Cats this week. Gold Coast has a 2-8 record against Geelong and based on recent form, it would be a brave tipster who thinks the Suns will turn that around.
EARLIEST PICK: If the Suns lose to the Cats combined with Melbourne beating GWS and North Melbourne beating the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast will drop to 17th on the ladder, handing them the second pick. The only curveball here would be if Sydney loses to Collingwood by more than 80 points, which would push the Swans’ percentage below Gold Coast’s.
LATEST PICK: An unlikely Gold Coast win coupled with a Sydney loss could lift the Suns to as high as 14th, which would give them the fifth pick. They would also need Melbourne to either lose or win by a small margin against the Giants.
OUR PREDICTION: Geelong will beat the Suns by enough that they will stay 16th and pick third.
MELBOURNE
Current position: 15th
Opponent: GWS
Pick range 2-5
The Demons are one of the toughest sides to predict this week, with the club in a position to swing up or down depending on the result of its Sunday afternoon clash with GWS. This match is shaping up as an absolute coin toss. The Dees will go in as underdogs despite the Giants holding a 2-14 record at the MCG. Melbourne will have the added advantage of a nine-day break since their fighting loss in Perth.
EARLIEST PICK: If Melbourne loses to the Giants combined with North Melbourne beating the Western Bulldogs and the Gold Coast defeating Geelong, Melbourne will fall to 17th on the ladder and pick second in the draft.
LATEST PICK: A Demons victory over the Giants going hand-in-hand with a Sydney loss to Collingwood and Geelong taking care of Gold Coast would allow Melbourne to move to 14th and give them pick five.
OUR PREDICTION: The Dees will lose to the Giants but be competitive enough to remain in 15th.
SYDNEY
Current position: 14th
Opponent:
Pick 2-5
Two weeks ago the Swans were the holders of the top pick in the mid-season draft. Now, seven days out from draft night, they have the fifth pick which shows how quickly the script can be flipped with the mid-season timeline.
However, after two nailbiting wins in a row, the true test is here with a clash against the red-hot Magpies.
EARLIEST PICK: A Sydney loss which coincides with Gold Coast beating Geelong, Melbourne beating GWS and North Melbourne knocking off the Bulldogs would drop the Swans to back to 17th, giving them the second pick.
LATEST PICK: A Sydney win and a St Kilda loss to Carlton would lift the Swans to 13th. However, they would actually pick fifth as the Saints don’t hold a pick in the draft.
OUR PREDICTION: The Swans will lose to the Pies but with rivals below them getting beaten, Sydney will stay 14th.
CURRENT DRAFT ORDER AFTER ROUND 9
1. Carlton
2. North Melbourne
3. Gold Coast
4. Melbourne
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Hawthorn
8. Essendon
9. Port Adelaide
10. Adelaide
11. Richmond
12. GWS
13. Collingwood
Second Round
14. Gold Coast
15. Richmond
16. GWS
Originally published as AFL ladder predictor: Which pick will your club have in the mid-season draft?
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