‘Important moment for the Liberal Party’: Jess Wilson now the opposition’s great hope
The Liberal Party has traditionally largely ignored younger voters, but after three brutal consecutive election losses in Victoria, could newly minted young leader Jess Wilson be the key to turning that around in time to win next year?
Jess Wilson is being hailed as the key to the Victorian Liberal Party attracting younger voters and winning next year’s election.
However, experts warn that the party’s success will hinge more on policy than personality.
At just 35, Wilson has made history this week becoming the first female to lead the party in Victoria.
Her supporters have celebrated her as the future of the party, capable of connecting with millennial and Gen Z voters, who now make up nearly half of the electorate in Victoria and have proven notoriously difficult for the party to engage in recent years, particularly in inner-urban seats.
Although, early signs for Ms Wilson are looking up. A Newspoll, conducted for the Australian newspaper after she was elected leader of the opposition, found the Coalition leading Labor 51-49 on a two-party-preferred result.
Ms Wilson also developed a strong lead over Jacinta Allan – 47 to 33 – as preferred premier.
As of September, voters under 44 comprised 43.7 per cent of Victoria’s 4.5 million eligible voters.
While 18–34-year-olds accounted for one-quarter, making them a growing and prized cohort for the major parties.
Traditionally, the Liberal Party has largely ignored younger voters, focusing instead on its older, more right-wing base.
However, after three brutal consecutive election losses in Victoria and with an ageing population, the party can no longer rely on its traditional base and must capture more of the emerging generation, according to Dr Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer in Politics in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University.
“The Liberal Party is losing young voters, and especially voters in inner-urban electorates. So the selection or the rise of Jess as leader is really important, in fact, critical for the Liberal Party,” he explains.
“She is exactly the type of person the party has struggled to connect with. Being in a metropolitan electorate, she appeals to highly educated individuals, and these are voters who have in recent elections gone to the Teal independents. So this is an important moment for the Liberal Party in Victoria.”
However, the figures indicate an uphill battle.
In the latest federal election, the Federal Liberal Party struggled in comparison to the Labor Party and the Greens, especially when it came to first-time voters and women.
Support from Gen Z females was 14 per cent with males slightly higher at 29 per cent
Among Gen X, support was moderate, with 28 per cent of women and 29 per cent of men backing the party.
In contrast, the Labor Party dominated among Gen Z, capturing 35 per cent of females and 37 per cent of males.
Gaining votes from Labor is crucial in the upcoming election, but Liberal insiders believe slight shifts could lead to Ms Wilson’s success.
“People often think that to win the election, we need to win 50 per cent of voters between 18 and 34, but that’s not right,” one senior Liberal figure said.
“We’d love to do that, but it’s hard to get that level of support. If we can secure a bump of just 5 per cent under Jess by appealing to younger voters, that’s the game.”
Young voters are clearly the target for Ms Wilson, who, after toppling former leader Brad Battin this week, described her victory as a “line in the sand moment” for the party.
The fact that Ms Wilson, a former executive director at the Business Council of Australia, a lawyer, and a new mother of 15-month-old Patrick, has a youthful leadership team behind her (with the exception of 76-year-old upper house leader Bev McArthur) has become a major focus for the media.
But it will be a delicate dance for her, balancing the old with the new.
It’s already been noted in Liberal circles that Ms Wilson, a moderate, was the only Victorian Liberal MP to have supported the Voice to parliament in the referendum, but for the moment she’s avoided the ire of many by confirming she fully supports her party’s plan to abolish the Treaty if elected.
She also last week had to deal with the messy climate change issue after the party’s federal counterpart dumped the commitment to net zero emissions.
Obviously keenly aware of the climate concerns among young voters, Ms Wilson declined to comment on the move, but pointed out that the Victorian party had supported emissions reduction legislation in the Victorian parliament.
This move risks alienating both young and traditional Liberal voters, many of whom see it as indecisive.
It sent ripples through the western Victorian farming community, where support for the Liberals has been skyrocketing due to the Labor government’s plan to fine farmers up to $12,000 if they block entry to their land to forcibly build high-voltage powerlines throughout regional Victoria.
“Is she actually going to help us?” one young farmer told the Herald Sun.
“We don’t know where she stands, is she just going to get in and be the same as the government? What’s her actual plan on renewables going to be and what does that mean for us?”
Director at Freshwater Strategy Dr Mike Turner said nuanced policy will be absolutely crucial if Ms Wilson is to win the younger votes while keeping the older voters from deserting to more right-wing options.
“While it’s certainly a great opportunity that we have these Gen Z leaders taking over the leadership of the Liberal Party. It’s just that, it’s an opportunity,” he said.
“The problems that young people are facing now are very different from the older generation. They’re worried about job prospects despite their university education, fearing AI could replace their roles. They’re concerned that they’ll never be able to afford to own a home when plenty of their parents own outright and potentially own lots of investment properties.”
Dr Ghazarian also cautioned the party to not fall into the trap of thinking that young voters are “one homogeneous group”.
He pointed out that renters versus aspiring homeowners will be attracted to different policies.
The same goes for working mums, young entrepreneurs, office workers, and farmers.
He said Ms Wilson will need to unleash a whole “alternative policy agenda” to really have an impact.
“This is an opportunity for the party to recast its policy agenda and to focus on the things that are important to young people. This means focusing on things like education, housing affordability, housing availability, infrastructure, opportunities for jobs. These are critical.”
“Just be mindful that among young people there’s great diversity, especially in terms of how first-time voters decide who to vote for.”
But for now, the party is showing an optimistic outlook on what Ms Wilson’s new role signals, especially among the Victorian Young Liberals.
President Patrick Irwin said the new leader was a significant breakthrough.
He pointed to the Liberal’s housing policy for first-time buyers as an example where Ms Wilson helped, which was a pledge to abolish stamp duty for first-home buyers on properties valued up to $1m if the Liberals win in 2026.
“She is serious about tackling the primary threat to my generation’s economic security,” he said.
“Jess’s impact can already be felt.”
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Originally published as ‘Important moment for the Liberal Party’: Jess Wilson now the opposition’s great hope
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