Steve Price: The Libs have a new leader, but it won’t be enough to overthrow Jacinta Allan
Fresh-faced rookie Jess Wilson is up against Jacinta Allan’s well-oiled Labor machine and its social-media juggernaut — and, trust me Jess, it’s going to get ugly.
One question above all else keeps being thrown at me when the issue of state politics comes up in conversation.
Can she and Labor really win again next year?
The she is Jacinta Allan, and the contest is the 2026 Victorian election.
Exactly one year and a week from now — on Saturday, November 28 — Victorians will be asked to decide if Labor gets returned to office for a record-breaking fourth term in a row.
If they do, it will mean Victoria will have been ruled by the ALP for 16 straight years.
Take out the one four-year term for the Coalition between 2014-20, and add the Steve Bracks wins in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and the John Brumby premiership between 2007-10 and you can see that the conservative side of politics has only ruled this state for four years out of 27. Four years only in more than a quarter of a century.
What a sad indictment on the Liberal Party of Victoria who haven’t had a leader of any substance since Jeff Kennett.
On the question of whether Jacinta Allan can win — you bet she can and probably will!
That presumably was the reason why the Liberals chopped Brad Battin this week and installed Jess Wilson, their third leader in less than 12 months.
Ignoring a poll from the Herald Sun that showed Battin had not only made up ground but was pulling ahead, the Liberals clearly think a 35-year-old, female, millennial, progressive, has a better chance against the ruthless Labor machine.
It is a huge gamble, and Liberal insiders claiming Jess Wilson is Jacinta Allan’s worst nightmare are seriously kidding themselves.
Jess is clearly smart — a fresh face — but she is still the third Liberal leader in a year, a rookie Parliamentarian and up against Jacinta Allan, the longest-serving female minister in Victorian political history.
Premier Allan has been in parliament since 1999 and served as deputy to the loathed but wily Daniel Andrews up until he resigned.
Allan has learned all of Andrews’ tricks, and she is backed by a Labor machine that has stacked Victoria’s institutions with Labor mates.
Victoria’s big build infrastructure projects like the Suburban Rail Loop, the soon to open Metro Tunnel, and the West Gate Tunnel projects are all built by Labor’s mates from the CFMEU and the three-term Labor government has allowed the public service numbers across the board to explode.
If you have a secure, taxpayer-funded job for life in the public service, of course you will cast your votes for the party that gave you the job.
Cynically — even before the Jess Wilson coup this week — the Premier had fired the starter’s gun on next year’s re-election campaign.
Despite presiding over the worst breakdown of law and order in our state’s history under her watch — including her slack bail laws, lack of adequate financing for police, appointment of Labor-supporting magistrates, shutdown of youth detention centres, plus pandering to Indigenous lobby groups — amazingly Allan has now seen the light.
Sheriff Allan will get tough and steal the Queensland LNP election slogan of adult crime means adult time — or a version of that — and turn it into her own.
Day after day for the past fortnight we have had press release after press release and photo opportunities in tunnels and filled with hard hats — even dragging a visiting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on to a shiny new train with a promise from him of more of your money for the SRL in next year’s federal budget in March.
No-one really believes the Premier has turned into the tough guy on law and order.
Rather, she is taking a direct leaf out of her old boss Daniel Andrews’ trio of election wins and just copies what he used to do — promise what you think the people want to hear all the way until election day, win the popular vote and then do what you really wanted to do — or not do — in the first place. For example, the always crazy idea of a regional Commonwealth Games in places like Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, win the election and then reveal it would be too expensive, and blow up almost $600 million to cancel the contract.
Classic Andrews — and you wait — there will be some classic Allan as well.
If Jess Wilson and the Liberals are serious about winning a year from next weekend they must make tough decisions.
The new Opposition Leader voted for the Yes side at the Voice referendum but says she is prepared — as Battin was — to rip up Victoria’s Indigenous treaty, which is odd for a Yes voter. We will see on that.
Will she tackle the issue of net zero as a moderate and can she convince her team to reverse Labor plans to ban gas or tell Canberra that Melbourne is full and needs to limit migration numbers?
Will Jess Wilson stand up to Canberra and defend Victorian farmers against the renewables push and tear up laws that allow power companies right of entry under the threat of jail if you don’t comply?
Wilson’s leadership this week started with a handshake from Premier Allan across the dispatch box in parliament, but could it end again for the Liberals in tears?
Premier Allan in parliament gestured to Wilson to shake hands knowing that image would lead the nightly news before anything else. That is what Jess Wilson is up against — the well- oiled Labor machine and its social media department juggernaut and, trust me Jess, it will get ugly.
But, back to that question at the start — can she (Premier Allan) and Labor win again in November next year?
You bet they can.
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DISLIKES
•Australian fast bowling legend Glenn McGrath dumped by the ABC because he has some work with Bet 365 – pathetic.
•The ABC refusing to acknowledge and apologise for doctoring quotes from Donald Trump in a 4 Corners episode.
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•Wednesday’s compromised AFL draft turns into a sick joke favouring interstate teams.
