‘Severe’ Tropical Cyclone Alfred inching closer to Qld coast
New modelling has sparked fears TC Alfred could turn back towards the Qld coast in coming days while abnormally high tides and gale-force winds are expected this weekend.
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Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to inch closer to the Queensland coast from today bringing severe hazards including abnormally high tides and gale-force winds.
After being upgraded to a category four system last night, TC Alfred has since weakened back to a category three system, the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed.
It is currently located about 670km east of Mackay and 600km east-northeast of Rockhampton.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonanthan How confirmed TC Alfred would move closer towards the Queensland coast today.
“On Saturday, severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred will remain as a severe category three system and continue moving in a southwest direction, slightly closer towards the central Queensland coast,” he said.
“On Sunday, it is forecast to turn again towards the southeast and move away from the coast as a category two system, and by Sunday night, it is expected to be well east of Rockhampton.
“We did see a wind gust of 150km/h, but closer to the centre of the cyclone, we are seeing sustained winds near the centre of 155km/h, and wind gusts to 220km/h over the open water.”
While TC Alfred is expected to be well off the Queensland coast on Sunday, Mr How said Alfred could turn back towards the state later in the week.
“As we head into Monday, severe TC Alfred is expected to continue moving in that south easterly direction, and early next week, it is expected to lie well east of K’gari and the Sunshine Coast,” he said.
“For the middle of next week, it is expected to become slow moving, and could even curve back towards the Queensland coast and from there, there is still a range of possibilities with regards to its exact movement and just how close it will come to the coast, and this will depend on a number of factors, including how the tropical cyclone interacts with other systems in our region.”
According to Thomas Hinterdorfer of Higgins Storm Chasing, new modelling data suggests TC Alfred could veer towards SEQ later in the week.
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently a fairway off the Capricornia Coast, but with the way these steering patterns are working, the system is expected to move closer in a southwest direction towards the Queensland coast today,” Mr Hinterdorfer said.
“The system will then interact with an upper level trough moving across southeastern Australia tomorrow and into Monday, which will force the system to move a bit more south and then take a south east track.
“There is the anticipation that as the upper level trough moves further east, it’ll actually force the system to move back west towards South East Queensland.”
According to Mr Hinterdorfer, the four major models are suggesting a westward track towards Queensland.
“The four major models that we look at amongst other models, are all indicating that this westwood track is the most likely scenario at this stage,” he said.
“Nothing before Tuesday says a landfall is expected, but then from Wednesday onwards, it gets a little bit more interesting with the model scenarios as they’re currently playing out.”
Mr Hinterdorfer went onto add that there is a possibility that TC Alfred could make landfall.
“There’s definitely the possibility of it from probably Wednesday onwards or midweek onwards, several models have that scenario at the moment, but of course, we need to let them play out a little bit more just before we hard lock it,” he said.
In addition to generating strong wind gusts, Alfred is also producing hazardous conditions along the Queensland coastline.
“Although severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred remains well offshore, it is generating hazardous coastal conditions for areas south of Mackay and down towards the New South Wales border,” Mr How said.
“People should be aware that if they’re heading to the water or the beach, current conditions can be dangerous for swimming, rock fishing and boating.
“We will see in these areas powerful waves in addition to regular high tides, and these were combined to produce abnormally high tides that could cause coastal flooding along the foreshore and with these very powerful waves, severe beach erosion is also possible north of the Sunshine Coast initially, but these could extend further south depending on Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s movement.”
Marine wind warnings are current for all waters south of Mackay to the Sunshine Coast, with a storm force wind warning in place for the Great Barrier Reef.
It comes as the iconic Bribie Island is at risk of ripping in half and leaving parts of the Sunshine Coast facing a “real life nightmare”.
A Sunshine Coast community group has raised concerns that Tropical Cyclone Alfred could have a devastating impact on the northern tip of Bribie after water was seen gushing over the island.
Ocean Beach at Bribie Island is awash with sea water, with access to the popular four wheel drive hot spot and camp sites cut off by waves whipped up by the cyclone.
The wild weather comes amid fears the northern tip of Bribie Island could experience a second significant breakthrough as a result of the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Campers have been strongly advised to leave K’gari, Inskip and Cooloola camping areas as Alfred moves south.
Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service is not accepting camping bookings in the protected areas, with refunds available for those who have already booked.
Despite the cyclone’s distance from the coast BOM forecaster Jonanthan How yesterday said it is generating hazardous conditions for parts of Queensland’s coast.
“First, for gale force winds across the Great Barrier Reef and strong winds warnings between Townsville and down towards K’gari,” Mr How said.
“We also have a hazardous surf warning for the Capricornia and K’gari coast, so roughly between Yeppoon to Hervey Bay.”
Mr How said these areas can expect very windy conditions along the foreshore and out onto the water, and large swells with waves of two-to-three metres.
Originally published as ‘Severe’ Tropical Cyclone Alfred inching closer to Qld coast
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