Exclusive YouGov poll: Steven Miles catches David Crisafulli as preferred premier

An exclusive Courier-Mail poll reveals Steven Miles has pulled off a miracle comeback in the battle as preferred premier, but it appears unlikely to save Labor from a wipe-out on October 26.

Steven Miles has caught up to David Crisafulli as preferred premier, an exclusive YouGov poll reveals.

• Editorial: Strong message for LNP

Steven Miles has caught David Crisafulli as preferred premier but failed to translate his growing popularity into votes for Labor, a new poll reveals.

A YouGov poll of 1503 Queenslanders commissioned by The Courier-Mail reveals the premier’s personal popularity is 36 per cent, one point below Mr Crisafulli’s 37 per cent.

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However, the LNP continues to lead Labor 55 to 45 per cent on a two-party vote – putting the conservatives on track to form government after almost 10 years.

It indicates Mr Miles’s $1.4bn school lunches announcement and uncertainty over the LNP’s position on abortion has chipped the edge off the conservative vote, but is unlikely to change the result of the election.

The two-party result represents an 8 per cent swing against Labor since the 2020 election which, if it was uniform across the state, would see the government lose 20 seats.

The YouGov poll was taken between October 10 and 16.

Labor’s primary vote is at 31 per cent, up 1 per cent from September’s Newspoll result, while the LNP has fallen one point to 41 per cent.

The government’s primary vote of 31 per cent remains lower than the final poll taken under Annastacia Palaszczuk’s reign in October, when it was at 33 per cent.

Labor’s targeting of the LNP leader over his stance on abortion and Mr Miles’s social media presence has paid off, with 53 per cent of young people preferring the premier above Mr Crisafulli.

However, the ‘Palaszczuk’s pensioners’ who delivered Labor five seats in 2020 have returned to the LNP.

With people aged 65 or over, 56 per cent prefer Mr Crisafulli.

It puts the five Labor-held seats of Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra and Pumicestone at risk of falling to the LNP.

Mr Crisafulli’s standing as preferred premier has plunged from 46 points in last month’s poll to 37 per cent.

He has faced daily questions about the LNP’s plans for abortion and how it will pay for election promises.

Mr Crisafulli has repeatedly said abortion was not part of his plan, but LNP candidates have been exposed pushing for change.

Mr Miles’s rating as preferred premier has also recorded a fall, albeit smaller, from 39 per cent to 36 per cent.

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The election is shaping as a two-tiered race, with Brisbane strongly preferring Mr Miles as coastal and regional Queensland backs Mr Crisafulli.

A staggering 60 per cent of voters in the inner city prefer Mr Miles to Mr Crisafulli’s 23 per cent.

Mr Crisafulli leads as preferred premier in the outer suburbs of Brisbane 35 to 34 per cent, while his popularity in coastal and regional Queensland is in the low 40s compared to Mr Miles’s 31 per cent.

The premier, unaware of the latest YouGov poll result, said he was focused on election day.

“I’m fighting every single day to win this election because the stakes are really, really high,” he said.

“The LNP’s campaign is based on a series of lies, the biggest lie is when it comes to their costings.

“They are saying that you can spend $17.1bn more, won’t cut taxes and cut debt, but they won’t tell you what they will cut to pay for it.”

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Mr Crisafulli said he was “not interested in what the polls predict”.

The premier’s strategy of appearing on TikTok also appears to be working, with younger voters recognising the premier from the social media platform.

Mr Miles’s personal popularity among young Queenslanders and a softer Greens vote will give Labor hope of holding the inner-city seats of McConnel, Cooper and Greenslopes.

The Greens’ primary vote in the inner metropolitan area is 22 per cent.

To win the seats, they would need a stronger primary vote than Labor or finish narrowly behind and benefit from preferences.

Mr Miles’s net satisfaction is at -10 points, a three-point improvement from July.

Mr Crisafulli has fallen 11 points to six.

Former Premier Peter Beattie on Sunday told The Courier-Mail the 10 months Mr Miles had to prove himself was too short.

“I gave Anna Bligh two years in office before an election was due with polls showing we would have increased our majority if an election had been held at the time of my retirement – Bligh was re-elected,” he said.

Originally published as Exclusive YouGov poll: Steven Miles catches David Crisafulli as preferred premier